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i hope you don't get your wish and we get another 2000 and adjusted for inflation your entire portfolio is dead for 13 years again just so you can add a little bit .... keep these down turns , anything i add is peanuts in comparison to the damage done on the entire portfolio if it is extended . .
i hope you don't get your wish and we get another 2000 and adjusted for inflation your entire portfolio is dead for 13 years again just so you can add a little bit .... keep these down turns , anything i add is peanuts in comparison to the damage done on the entire portfolio if it is extended . .
I’m kidding, of course, I invest the Bogglehead way, that’s why I keep buying. But the market was down 5% in 2018. Now it’s up nearly 11% in 2019, only 5 months, so we still up 5-6%, that’s more than the normal 4% SWR. No need to panick.
i don't panic ...but i do think it is poor logic to want to see many many many many times what you may get to add in a downturn get stalled or reduced and for god knows how long each time in order to add a bit at a lower price .... it may only be a good thing for those with little invested yet and lots and lots of time or i think it is pretty silly wishing for a drop so one can add funds at a lower price which are peanuts compared to the amount that stalls or shrinks for what could be a decade or longer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewbieHere
I love his tweets, what can I say, fickled market, I get to buy cheaper, and cheaper.
the secret to healthy market is twitter should close his account
the latest tweet makes no sense at all and is potentially VERY dangerous. After a trade deal was already negotiated, i.e. USMCA, the terms are being backtracked now in an arbitrary way. That is not how deals and contracts work
i don't panic ...but i do think it is poor logic to want to see many many many many times what you may get to add in a downturn get stalled or reduced and for god knows how long each time in order to add a bit at a lower price .... it may only be a good thing for those with little invested yet and lots and lots of time or i think it is pretty silly wishing for a drop so one can add funds at a lower price which are peanuts compared to the amount that stalls or shrinks for what could be a decade or longer.
I have conservative AA for a reason. I buy often and when the market is down my AA still goes down. So I’m just rebalancing frequently.
the latest tweet makes no sense at all and is potentially VERY dangerous. After a trade deal was already negotiated, i.e. USMCA, the terms are being backtracked now in an arbitrary way. That is not how deals and contracts work
China trade deal is off. They need distraction from china trade deal and need some kind of win.
So, current admin want some kind of deal that can help in upcoming elections.
That's why they went after Mexico. They will get some kind of paper deal with Mexico very very soon. Not sure whether it will be implemented or not in real.
The current admin don't want to appear that they can't do anything on trade. Tha'st why they want to claim some easy win.
The market last corrected "bigly" in December 2018, with a drop of 17% or so, making December 2018 the worst month for stocks since the Great Depression. 2018 was the worst year for stocks in 10 years.
Correction = a drop of 10%
Crash = a drop of 20%
Everytime Individual 1 tweets one of his threats, the market reacts immediately and negatively, sometimes very negatively.
Yeah if I had cash on the sidelines at the end of December, I definitely would have thought about pouring in some money then. Unfortunately, I didn't. I will in less than two weeks, and for now, I'm probably going ultra conservative with it and it's going in CDs or high yield savings accounts for the time being. I'd rather not lose access to the money in the near term, so if I put it into stocks and they took a 20% hit right now, I'm worried I'd need that money out for a better investment soon. I just have too many opportunities for solid investments in a 5 year window to put it into stocks at this point in time unless I honestly feel like it's too good of a deal to resist.
I also disagree if you are that worried about "there feels like no bottom in sight," that means you can't afford to lose the money you're investing and you're not being rational about the market. I can afford to lose anything I invest in stocks, down to the last penny, and my lifestyle wouldn't change whatsoever. That's why it's in stocks not in a checking or savings account. If it were integral to my future wellbeing, it wouldn't be in stocks. While everyone else was panicking during the recession, all I could think was how much I wish I had a lot of cash on the sidelines because it was like a clearance sale at the local store, everything must go. I wanted to buy every house I saw, I wanted to buy stocks, I was like a kid in a candy store but with no money on the sidelines. I don't want that to happen again. Cash is king and cash represents opportunity, so while I have plenty of money invested in high growth assets, I like the idea of having a large amount of cash ready to deploy so that when there is opportunity, I don't miss out.
A guy in Las Vegas bought a large retail complex that was built for $28 million and finished at the start of the recession. He paid $4 million for it. He sold it 5 years later for $12 million. That's the kind of opportunity that arises during downturns and no amount of "great returns" over 20 or 30 years in the stock market makes up for the lost opportunity cost of not having money to deploy in those times. Every time there's a recession, there is a TON of money to be made by people with cash. It's the ones who are already heavily invested that get hosed.
If you ask me, if you look at the stock market and aren't sure if now is a good time to buy, then it's not a good time to buy. It should be obvious. It was completely obvious to me at 6,900 that it was THE time to buy, and I couldn't understand why money wasn't rushing into the market except that I think not enough people had money to put into it at that point. So much wealth was wiped out. I'll trust my own instincts, though, and my instinct is if the market is hovering near all time highs, it is NOT the time to buy whatsoever. It does matter when you buy, and the graphs show that. Yes, you can still make a great return over a 40 year horizon no matter what pretty much, but why not at least wait until there's a small dip if nothing else, even a 10-15% market dip is still a solid time and that happens regularly.
I have conservative AA for a reason. I buy often and when the market is down my AA still goes down. So I’m just rebalancing frequently.
so why not sell everything off when you hit your desired allocation and start from zero again dollar cost averaging in , which is what you are doing anyway ?
of course the answer is , you can see doing that over time would not work well at all ...so trying to add drips and drabs over time is not really a good way to do things because markets are up 2/3's of the time and down only 1/3 ... you really end up shooting yourself in the foot historically by not just putting the money in the allocation you want and just let it run letting time do it's thing .
in order for trying to play the dips to work better you need to be an excellent market timer over time , which few of us can do . so typically we give up more when we guess wrong by not committing then we get trying to time the additions to the drops . ....
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