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Just a guess, but I think we'll see a large drop before another large leg up. Who knows, maybe the longest bull market in history has another 10 years to run, but I seriously doubt it.
The CME sentiment site is starting to price a Fed cut in July. We could have a huge drop before that happens. Hopefully the tweets stop when we get a cut but seems like stock market is going to be a primary victim in this nonesense now.
Keep those blinders on bud. The average stock is down more than 7%. I doubt anyone here is just in the SPY. I can't predict the future with certainty and neither can you. Fact.
Correct ---there is no certainty. Never has been and never will be . If you want certainty just buy Treasury bills.
However If you want or need growth the stock market is a great vehicle albeit with volatility
And to your other point political bias is what blinds people.
It's about risk/return. This market 's risk outweighs its potential return. If you're a long-term investor, you'll likely be ok, but if not, I'd be very careful, even in a 50-50 or 40-60 portfolio.
Most people are long term investors until they're not (i.e. less than 10 yrs to live and that's usually unknown).
So what exactly are you suggesting people do here? "Be very careful" in what way? You're already suggesting a 50/50 or 40/60 portfolio may not be good.
Markets are at 64% betting on a cut by October and possibly 2
Haha, 61.8% chance of a cut next month right now. Was in the teens last week. Good to luck to everyone here if we don't get one and nothing changes with the trade bs shortly.
Most people are long term investors until they're not (i.e. less than 10 yrs to live and that's usually unknown).
So what exactly are you suggesting people do here? "Be very careful" in what way? You're already suggesting a 50/50 or 40/60 portfolio may not be good.
So give an allocation that is the right one.
Liz is about 30-35% equities overall if I remember her earlier statement she made ,even though she calls herself 100% equities because she pulls the long term money out of the pile and does not count it in the overall allocation ..... I guess we can all say we are 100% equities if we don’t count the rest of our money or bonds which is for shorter term use.
Most people are long term investors until they're not (i.e. less than 10 yrs to live and that's usually unknown).
So what exactly are you suggesting people do here? "Be very careful" in what way? You're already suggesting a 50/50 or 40/60 portfolio may not be good.
So give an allocation that is the right one.
It's difficult to say what's "right" for everyone. We are all different ages, in different health conditions, have varying amounts of assets, have varying financial obligations, have varying risk aversions, etc.. My belief remains develop a financial plan, taking into account things that could happen that could adversely impact your portfolio, that you didn't expect.
I'm optimistic all these trade tensions are going to magically disappear and the markets will settle once we get a cut but that might be naive!
That's the Goldilocks scenario.. I'be been an investor for almost 40 years, and have made a tremendous amount of $ from investing in equities. Over the years, I've learned Goldilocks scenarios often don't become reality.
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