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we are closer to the bottom than people think... that is my view. All the carnage has been priced in, we are within 10% of the bottom. No, the market isn't falling 60%, that is just wishful thinking.
The stock market forward prices things and they are taking an extremely dim view of the future, that is already priced in. Investors have access to the same info that the rest of us have and the prices already reflect all that.
You can see that when we got into the 2200 zone the speed of the selloff is drastically reducing...
we are closer to the bottom than people think... that is my view. All the carnage has been priced in, we are within 10% of the bottom. No, the market isn't falling 60%, that is just wishful thinking.
The stock market forward prices things and they are taking an extremely dim view of the future, that is already priced in. Investors have access to the same info that the rest of us have and the prices already reflect all that.
You can see that when we got into the 2200 zone the speed of the selloff is drastically reducing...
i think we have as much as double to go .... our governor in ny was just on saying we may all be quarantined to early june. nyc is shut down beyond belief .....this is not going to go away any time soon without a miracle...
we are closer to the bottom than people think... that is my view. All the carnage has been priced in, we are within 10% of the bottom. No, the market isn't falling 60%, that is just wishful thinking.
The stock market forward prices things and they are taking an extremely dim view of the future, that is already priced in. Investors have access to the same info that the rest of us have and the prices already reflect all that.
You can see that when we got into the 2200 zone the speed of the selloff is drastically reducing...
I think one issue is that there is still a massive range of predictions regarding exactly how bad Q2 numbers are going to be. Q3 is obviously a total guess. The St. Louis Fed chair (Bullard) yesterday said we could see 30% unemployment and a 50% drop in GDP for Q2, which would be the worst quarterly drop of all time by FAR (the worst in 2008 was -8.4%). Other folks have predicted something more pedestrian, although still terrible, like -14%.
Is -14% what is priced in? Or is -50% priced in? What has the market priced in regarding Q3 and a likelihood that this shutdown lifestyle lingers for 2-3 months instead of six weeks? There's so much variance in projections that I don't know how anyone knows what is priced in. If we do have a 50% drop in GDP and 30% unemployment, a 60% drop in stocks is not unrealistic at all. If we have a 14% drop in GDP and a strong recovery in Q3, that's a totally different scenario.
i think we have as much as double to go .... our governor in ny was just on saying we may all be quarantined to early june. nyc is shut down beyond belief .....this is not going to go away any time soon without a miracle...
Agreed. I think the economy is in real trouble, possibly a depression, and that will be reflected in equity prices. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 75% drop from the high.
we are closer to the bottom than people think... that is my view. All the carnage has been priced in, we are within 10% of the bottom. No, the market isn't falling 60%, that is just wishful thinking.
The stock market forward prices things and they are taking an extremely dim view of the future, that is already priced in. Investors have access to the same info that the rest of us have and the prices already reflect all that.
You can see that when we got into the 2200 zone the speed of the selloff is drastically reducing...
I don't agree with that. We bottomed at what, dow 7k back in 2009? And this situation is just as bad as that one, perhaps worse. No way of knowing how long we are going to keep the economy shut down. A week or two more, we bounce back. We get to May 15 and people are still sitting in their houses and staring out their windows -- we slide much further.
we are closer to the bottom than people think... that is my view. All the carnage has been priced in, we are within 10% of the bottom. No, the market isn't falling 60%, that is just wishful thinking.
The stock market forward prices things and they are taking an extremely dim view of the future, that is already priced in. Investors have access to the same info that the rest of us have and the prices already reflect all that.
You can see that when we got into the 2200 zone the speed of the selloff is drastically reducing...
I love how The Bogleheads keep saying all of this is already "priced in". How in the world can all of the upcoming bad economic data, bankruptcies, sectors completely changing, unemployment, potential riots, etc., etc., etc., already be priced in lol?
Bogleheads were saying this after Last Monday's Blood Bath. Now they are saying it a week later. So was it all priced in last Monday? Or is it all priced in this Monday?
I also love how Bogleheads claim that one shouldn't try to time the market or call a bottom, but they literally are calling a bottom when they are saying everything is already "priced in".
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