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I know Bill Ackman is a polarizing figure, and I know his rant on CNBC a few days ago was also polarizing. But he was right. This slow, sort-of shutdown is not going to work, and we are still going to be battling this virus in a serious way two months from now. As he said, most businesses can survive a 30-day total shutdown. Very few can survive a 90% shutdown for over a year.
Only two things have so far been shown to stop this virus. First, you can test obsessively and quarantine obsessively. South Korea did that, and they had success. We're way too late in the game for that. The other option is to shut things down completely. Thirty days of real lockdown will cause all existing cases of the virus to disappear. What will not work is a partial lockdown, which is exactly what we are doing now.
Imagine your neighborhood is being infested by cockroaches, one house at a time. You could spray your entire house and prevent the infestation, but you'd have to remove all of your furniture and take your pets somewhere else for a week. It would be inconvenient. Instead of doing that, you wait until literally every single other house in your neighborhood is infested, and you then wait until you find five cockroaches in your house. But guess what? Now, the preventative spray doesn't work so well, and you are constantly emptying your house, spraying, finding more, emptying, and so on.
Why not just bite the bullet and realize that, if every other house in your neighborhood is being infested, yours will be too? The US states that are not locking things down are the last house on the block, sticking their fingers in their ears while singing loudly.
The federal government should lock things down completely for one month. Mortgages and rent can be waived, and our stimulus checks can buy food. This is the only shot we have at being back to quasi-normal in two months or so.
Remember, this whole ordeal started with one or two people. From them, it spread to the entire world. Ergo, only locking down hot zones, even if that locks down 90% of people with the virus, won't come close to containing it in a country with 40,000+ positive cases. We have to get to zero, and the sooner, the better.
Last edited by Wittgenstein's Ghost; 03-23-2020 at 12:46 AM..
Walmart is still packed out around here. The issue is still teetering between humorous and serious for most folks.
Black Monday here we come.
It really did sneak up on us kinda fast.
Social distancing seemed like some new joke last Monday.
Simpler times.
No one social distances themselves at costco, walmart or winco. Those places are packed like Rock concerts. IT IS A JOKE. For them to do it right they would have to tell folks to stay in the car and only let a certain amount of folks in the store per hour. They would never do this. Folks in the checkout line are right next to each other.
A stupid concept. Just like this virus which affects the unhealthy,obese older folks with multiple health issues. Zero kids have died under 10 years old.
Why don't they just order old, obese folks to stay home. That right there would solve it. Make it on waist size. Any waist size over 33 you stay at home. I have a 32 waist, so I can roam freely of course.
I know Bill Ackman is a polarizing figure, and I know his rant on CNBC a few days ago was also polarizing. But he was right. This slow, sort-of shutdown is not going to work, and we are still going to be battling this virus in a serious way two months from now. As he said, most businesses can survive a 30-day total shutdown. Very few can survive a 90% shutdown for over a year.
Only two things have so far been shown to stop this virus. First, you can test obsessively and quarantine obsessively. South Korea did that, and they had success. We're way too late in the game for that. The other option is to shut things down completely. Thirty days of real lockdown will cause all existing cases of the virus to disappear. What will not work is a partial lockdown, which is exactly what we are doing now.
Imagine your neighborhood is being infested by cockroaches, one house at a time. You could spray your entire house and prevent the infestation, but you'd have to remove all of your furniture and take your pets somewhere else for a week. It would be inconvenient. Instead of doing that, you wait until literally every single other house in your neighborhood is infested, and you then wait until you find five cockroaches in your house. But guess what? Now, the preventative spray doesn't work so well, and you are constantly emptying your house, spraying, finding more, emptying, and so on.
Why not just bite the bullet and realize that, if every other house in your neighborhood is being infested, yours will be too? The US states that are not locking things down are the last house on the block, sticking their fingers in their ears while singing loudly.
The federal government should lock things down completely for one month. Mortgages and rent can be waived, and our stimulus checks can buy food. This is the only shot we have at being back to quasi-normal in two months or so.
Remember, this whole ordeal started with one or two people. From them, it spread to the entire world. Ergo, only locking down hot zones, even if that locks down 90% of people with the virus, won't come close to containing it in a country with 40,000+ positive cases. We have to get to zero, and the sooner, the better.
But the problem remains, which is the argument I was making a week ago.....is that the essential businesses are still open. So when those people leave the house to go to the grocery store, that will be in a group. If it's going to spread, it's going to spread.
But the problem remains, which is the argument I was making a week ago.....is that the essential businesses are still open.
Force people to make appointments and wear masks at grocery stores.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ambitious994
If it's going to spread, it's going to spread.
You've said this repeatedly, and it's been nonsense every time. Viruses spread because of exposure, and exposure is not binary. Literally every single epidemiologist disagrees with you on this.
Ackman's toolishness is irrelevant to the question of whether he's right. His motives are also irrelevant to the question of whether he's right.
Every epidemiologist disagrees with you (Purlin) regarding isolation and the virus spreading.
Actually, I think we agree man. Isolation works, no doubt.
But closing damn near everything forces more people into fewer spaces, which is the opposite of isolation.
The scene at my local Costco was insane. I witnessed around 400 people all huddled together in a tight circle, for 30+ minutes waiting for the doors to open.
The more things close, the more people congregate into the same place. Hell else they gonna go?
A stupid concept. Just like this virus which affects the unhealthy,obese older folks with multiple health issues. Zero kids have died under 10 years old.
Why don't they just order old, obese folks to stay home. That right there would solve it. Make it on waist size. Any waist size over 33 you stay at home. I have a 32 waist, so I can roam freely of course.
JohnDABaptist --
I can't tell if you're being serious or if your humor is just too wry for the internet.
The Spring Breakers are back from Florida, and the first positive tests are already coming in.
Maybe you could revise your waist size requirements down to, say..........22 or something.
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