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Investor psychology is a funny thing. Back in mid-March almost no one believed we would be back at record highs within a handful of months. Now almost no one believes we can see a 50%-75% bust into 2021......
Like I said back in the mid-March lows when almost every "expert" was saying lower (and then they were saying retest of the lows this whole record run higher)......manic up action to new record highs in short order. Manic up first, then manic down to come. We are seeing the moonshot continue with this manic up action. Sentiment is shifting to bullishness and the lower/retest crowd coming off the mid-March lows are now starting to talk about new record highs and how stocks can only go higher. The bears are finally starting to capitulate. All signs of a top starting to form. We still have room to run higher through the end of summer.
And then we are going to see the biggest deflationary bust since The Great Depression starting later this year into a good portion of 2021. It will be a 50%-75% fall from the summer apex record highs. Total carnage.
I will be at the ready if there is carnage. I know I sound like a broken record, but in order for you to get your carnage, we have to have
1. Biden wins election
2. More covid 19 problems and some more major lockdowns of the economy
and...
I will add a 3rd one -- continuing violence by those on the left not satisfied with knocking Trump out of office.
If you get these three things happening in a relatively short amount of time then yes I think we will see a bust.
I can see why AAPL and TSLA are up before the split, but the others, no clue. I'm glad to have got a few of TSLA in March.
Thank God sold SDS a while ago for a loss.
Nice about TSLA and yeah, cutting losses is often times the best move. I always suggest to people to know your GET OUT price before you submit your order to buy said stock or fund. You never want to be in a situation where it keeps dropping and dropping and you're stressed out thinking OMG SHOULD I SELL NOW, NO BUT WHAT IF IT GOES BACK UP, MAYBE I CAN ADD MORE TO BRING MY COST AVERAGE DOWN, I DONT KNOW ANYMORE!!!
Investor psychology is a funny thing. Back in mid-March almost no one believed we would be back at record highs within a handful of months. Now almost no one believes we can see a 50%-75% bust into 2021......
That's why I like sticking to the charts as much as I can. It is amazing looking back in hindsight what the general consensus was at a given time. It is very easy to become paranoid or euphoric.
Nice about TSLA and yeah, cutting losses is often times the best move. I always suggest to people to know your GET OUT price before you submit your order to buy said stock or fund. You never want to be in a situation where it keeps dropping and dropping and you're stressed out thinking OMG SHOULD I SELL NOW, NO BUT WHAT IF IT GOES BACK UP, MAYBE I CAN ADD MORE TO BRING MY COST AVERAGE DOWN, I DONT KNOW ANYMORE!!!
I get what you're saying here, and you're right, but I look at it differently. I have a long term outlook on everything I buy, and I do set target buy prices that I'm happy buying and holding at. If I buy at the target buy price and it goes lower, then I will buy more, gladly. If I'm not totally comfortable owning something at a certain level, and watching it go lower from there, I don't buy it to begin with. I'm ok seeing some red in the ledger for a while, and averaging down has made me a lot of money over the years.
Like Buffett says, "If you liked it enough to own it at $10, you should love it at $5.
Investor psychology is a funny thing. Back in mid-March almost no one believed we would be back at record highs within a handful of months. Now almost no one believes we can see a 50%-75% bust into 2021......
No one believes a lot of things. That doesn't mean they will come true. Thats why pretending to know what the stock market will do or making extreme predictions shows ignorance.
And most people knew the shut down was very temporary. Therefore new highs were inevitable before year end.
Always good to see 84's opinions, but I'm not buyin' a "50% - 75% bust into 2021".
Wouldn't be at all surprised if we see a strong pullback or even a full-fledged correction in the 500 over the next few weeks (or sometime before the election), before the the bull starts rolling again later this year and in 2021.
Now if, in the unlikely event, Jay goes off half-cocked in December or January and starts talkin' about raising rates, all bets are OFF...
I get what you're saying here, and you're right, but I look at it differently. I have a long term outlook on everything I buy, and I do set target buy prices that I'm happy buying and holding at. If I buy at the target buy price and it goes lower, then I will buy more, gladly. If I'm not totally comfortable owning something at a certain level, and watching it go lower from there, I don't buy it to begin with. I'm ok seeing some red in the ledger for a while, and averaging down has made me a lot of money over the years.
Like Buffett says, "If you liked it enough to own it at $10, you should love it at $5.
That works too, the main thing I'm saying is everyone should know exactly what they will do if the stock or fund they buy, hits the fan or maybe not even hits the fan, but just drops 5%... as long as you know ahead of time that... no matter how much it drops, I won't sell it, if anything I will buy more, that's fine too. You just don't want to be like most traders or even most "investors" who honestly haven't asked themselves that question and find themselves in limbo when it happens.
Investor psychology is a funny thing. Back in mid-March almost no one believed we would be back at record highs within a handful of months. Now almost no one believes we can see a 50%-75% bust into 2021......
Do you still think we get the 50-75% bust starting Fall 2020 into 2021 even if there is a Covid-19 vaccine that is safe and effective widely available by December 2020.
Probably because it will have already started and the ripple effects will be felt on economy especially as market panic starts 1-2 months before December 2020 even if Covid-19 is no longer an issue it will be too little too late. And you stated FED will eventually come back in which will make it faster in duration and cause hyperinflation 5 years form now that is high as they overshoot balance sheet?
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