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Not losing as much money when everything goes to s**t is my idea of winning in a bloodbath.
I don't need to not lose money, I just need to lose less money than most so I can pick up the assets for cheap on the other side. I've done two deals like that this year, well actually second one is set to close by the of the year.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi
Which is market timing lol. For example, I trade for a living and I don't focus on profit targets... I manage risk, my focus is on limiting my risk... but I'm sure you would call that market timing. Market timing can be in many forms. Evidence based investing is timing the market. If XYZ forms a cup and handle and breakout on high volume, that is evidence based, which is timing. There is timing the market based on just feelings and there is timing based on evidence.
To me market timing is buying/selling to take advantage of forecasted trends. I don't do that. My portfolio is set up to do well, or at least beat the overall market no matter what. And, I only buy/sell based on my predetermined criteria that has nothing to do with capital appreciation on its own of that said investment. I buy to improve things and increase value through increased cash flows. That's why my skillset isn't necessarily applicable in public markets.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChessieMom
Yeah well that was not what you said, was it.
Of course it is. If I lose 5% while the rest of market returns -20%, how's that not winning? I'm better capitalized then to take advantage of lower prices, and buying at lower prices (may) increase(s) my overall return.
Of course it is. If I lose 5% while the rest of market returns -20%, how's that not winning? I'm better capitalized then to take advantage of lower prices, and buying at lower prices (may) increase(s) my overall return.
Because if you consider that a win, then when you under-perform the market, then that would be a loss.
Either a gain is a win or a loss is a loss... if less of a loss is a win, than less of a gain is a loss.
To me market timing is buying/selling to take advantage of forecasted trends. I don't do that. My portfolio is set up to do well, or at least beat the overall market no matter what. And, I only buy/sell based on my predetermined criteria that has nothing to do with capital appreciation on its own of that said investment. I buy to improve things and increase value through increased cash flows. That's why my skillset isn't necessarily applicable in public markets.
You can't beat the overall market no matter what LOL. The permanent portfolio for example will result in less losses in a bear market, but will under-perform in a bull market. And that's fine if you have a special definition of market timing, but that doesn't change its definition.
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
2,909 posts, read 2,078,599 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi
Because if you consider that a win, then when you under-perform the market, then that would be a loss.
Either a gain is a win or a loss is a loss... if less of a loss is a win, than less of a gain is a loss.
Oh my god man you're dense. I even explained my reasoning in the post you quoted and you still wrote nonsense.
When I refer to market, I refer to S&P 500, because of its breadth and depth of holdings. If S&P goes down by 20% and in that time frame I lose only 5%, and because of a smaller loss I have enough money to now buy S&P at 20% discount, that means I overperformed the market. Why is this so hard for you to understand that?
Location: In a city within a state where politicians come to get their PHDs in Corruption
2,909 posts, read 2,078,599 times
Reputation: 4478
Quote:
Originally Posted by bmw335xi
You can't beat the overall market no matter what LOL. The permanent portfolio for example will result in less losses in a bear market, but will under-perform in a bull market. And that's fine if you have a special definition of market timing, but that doesn't change its definition.
Your circle logic reasoning is simply painful............
Oh my god man you're dense. I even explained my reasoning in the post you quoted and you still wrote nonsense.
When I refer to market, I refer to S&P 500, because of its breadth and depth of holdings. If S&P goes down by 20% and in that time frame I lose only 5%, and because of a smaller loss I have enough money to now buy S&P at 20% discount, that means I overperformed the market. Why is this so hard for you to understand that?
Let's bypass each other from now on, shall we?
lol, let's get your story straight here...
So now, you are long SPY, but then when you think there is going to be a crash you go into the PP and then when you think the market is going to bottom, you sell your PP and buy SPY? Yet... you say you don't time the market? haha okay there buddy. Your story is falling completely apart.
So now, you are long SPY, but then when you think there is going to be a crash you go into the PP and then when you think the market is going to bottom, you sell your PP and buy SPY? Yet... you say you don't time the market? haha okay there buddy. Your story is falling completely apart.
I do the same thing but I certainly wouldn’t say it is not trying to do an element of timing .
There are times I am just not comfortable with things , and while I would never sell out to cash my safe place is the permanent portfolio.....
When I feel more comfortable I will go as high as 40-50% equities .. while I am not concerned about being hurt in the PP , I could get burned in the 50/50 if my move back was wrong
I do the same thing but I certainly wouldn’t say it is not trying to do an element of timing .
There are times I am just not comfortable with things , and while I would never sell out to cash my safe place is the permanent portfolio.....
When I feel more comfortable I will go as high as 40-50% equities .. while I am not concerned about being hurt in the PP , I could get burned in the 50/50 if my move back was wrong
There is nothing wrong with doing it, I actually do a similar thing, but that is the definition of market timing.
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