Investing in stagflation (invest, account, advisor, recession)

[AverageJoeShmo]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

But from the sound of your other post you are not prepared and may have to to rely on others because things are that close to the bone .

Gbtc is a speculation not investing so I was kind of caught off guard here that while not having a solid healthy savings that you are speculating

Sorry I should have explained more, I’m just more pessimistic than average person

With rising rates are you still holding the long term treasuries in your permanent portfolio or substituting it for something else ?
Short term treasuries I think will be hit less IMHO

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by AverageJoeShmo

Sorry I should have explained more, I’m just more pessimistic than average person

With rising rates are you still holding the long term treasuries in your permanent portfolio or substituting it for something else ?
Short term treasuries I think will be hit less IMHO

I am still holding long term bonds and in fact buying more rebalancing and reinvesting interest at lower prices since they are the lowest asset .

Overall down under 4% in that portfolio

[GWoodle]

Originally Posted by AverageJoeShmo

What kind of bond laddering would you recommend for the not aggressive but maintenance bucket ?

For safety you could consider different government securities.

For short term, T-bills, 2 year notes, maybe I-bonds.

For medium term maybe 10 year notes.

For long term 30 year bonds, GNMA,

Another ladder includes corporates with similar time lines. May be some money market funds yet in commercial paper but not as common.

If you want to consider risk you have "high yield" or "junk bond funds" to choose from.

If you want to go an easy way maybe do a US Bond Market index fund.

[AverageJoeShmo]

Originally Posted by GWoodle

For safety you could consider different government securities.

For short term, T-bills, 2 year notes, maybe I-bonds.

For medium term maybe 10 year notes.

For long term 30 year bonds, GNMA,

Another ladder includes corporates with similar time lines. May be some money market funds yet in commercial paper but not as common.

If you want to consider risk you have "high yield" or "junk bond funds" to choose from.

If you want to go an easy way maybe do a US Bond Market index fund.

Like FXNAX or BND ?

[AverageJoeShmo]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

I am still holding long term bonds and in fact buying more rebalancing and reinvesting interest at lower prices since they are the lowest asset .

Overall down under 4% in that portfolio

If your horizon is more than 12 yrs is it ever advisable to hold cash ?
Other than emergency funds
And what’s the best place to hold it to use as “dry powder” incase there is market correction?
Thanks

[mathjak107]

Of course cash has a place .

Cash instruments can form a barbel with long term bonds cutting interest rate sensitivity way down .

Cash can act as an option to buy assets at cheaper prices but with expiration date.

Cash can temper volatility of a high equity portfolio..

Cash may be the only thing not losing in tight money or stagflation.

So yeah quite a few portfolios use cash instruments or very very short term bonds.

We use excess cash to take advantage of bank promos and short term treasury money markets and funds

[AverageJoeShmo]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

Of course cash has a place .

Cash instruments can form a barbel with long term bonds cutting interest rate sensitivity way down .

Cash can act as an option to buy assets at cheaper prices but with expiration date.

Cash can temper volatility of a high equity portfolio..

Cash may be the only thing not losing in tight money or stagflation.

So yeah quite a few portfolios use cash instruments or very very short term bonds.

We use excess cash to take advantage of bank promos and short term treasury money markets and funds

Would you change anything in your pp bucket now that interest rates are rising?

I’m still holding some GLD like 7.5% do you recommend against it ?
I did turn the TIPS into equities though

[mathjak107]

No. ,I would change nothing .

We can slide backwards in the blink of an eye with something as simple as another bad covid out break not like the last cold-vid .

The idea is we have no idea what is next.

The money near and dear to you is not the best place to practice your hand at timing and predicting.

I am not a fan of tips and they will get hit as well with rising rates , only they lack the protection when inflation falls and we head towards recession.

Tips base rates are near zero

[mathjak107]

I took a look this morning at things ..I kind of stopped looking daily as it’s no fun .

The permanent portfolio down 5.28%

The insight income model down 6.11%

The 100% equity insight unique opportunities model which is a more recent holding for me , down 6.55% .

So I am running about half of what the S&P is down ,as it is down 11% .

Qqq is down 18% .

So not to bad …..if there is a much wider spread between the income model And the unique opportunity model I will move some more money in to the equity model .

But for now I am doing nothing

[AverageJoeShmo]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

I took a look this morning at things ..I kind of stopped looking daily as it’s no fun .

The permanent portfolio down 5.28%

The insight income model down 6.11%

The 100% equity insight unique opportunities model which is a more recent holding for me , down 6.55% .

So I am running about half of what the S&P is down ,as it is down 11% .

Qqq is down 18% .

So not to bad …..if there is a much wider spread between the income model And the unique opportunity model I will move some more money in to the equity model .

But for now I am doing nothing

Thanks
Can you share what ETF you use for your insight income and unique opportunities funds ?

Are You thinking more into international equities as well ?