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If the experts can't predict where the market will be and are given a pass to change the original prediction, what value does this add? IMHO, not much except as fodder for those that believe Goldman knows best.
The interesting part is that they predicate the 4300 with no recession otherwise their target is 3600. Not very far from my 3400 target because I believe that this inflation will not die without a recession. And I am confident as the year-end will approach you will start hearing more talks about the possibility of a financial crisis in the Non-Banking finance entities.
This is exactly how bear markets feel. Target earings today was a clear warning that recession is coming and it is coming very fast. They had topline growth and still had huge margin compression. This shows that consumer is shifting towards discounters and essentials. As bad as it was for Target. This is worst for the discretionary sector and consumer is 75% of usa economy.
It's not the recession but the speed with which is approaching will rattle the market further specifically the credit markets and MJ might get his wish of BBB derating sooner than we think.
Another saying is the only thing that repeats itself over again are historians .
Each time is just different enough that fighting the last war won’t work and what you prepared for likely will have the event have just enough of a different twist to make it not work
Always the wise one mathjak. I think unprecedented factors will lead the way good or bad. So much of the last 30 years or so has been near impossible to predict.
The interesting part is that they predicate the 4300 with no recession otherwise their target is 3600. Not very far from my 3400 target because I believe that this inflation will not die without a recession. And I am confident as the year-end will approach you will start hearing more talks about the possibility of a financial crisis in the Non-Banking finance entities.
I hear that 3600 is the 'fed put' line and the sooner that line is reached the better to protect the interests of the major market participants.... i.e. thus stalling or preventing major rate hikes.
I hear that 3600 is the 'fed put' line and the sooner that line is reached the better to protect the interests of the major market participants.... i.e. thus stalling or preventing major rate hikes.
I hear you but I think that Fed will not be able to do anything. Why? As everybody keeps repeating that credit markets have behaved very well so far. Why because everyone has been drinking the Kool-Aid of a super-strong economy. There has been massive risk-taking facilitated by easy liquidity and financial engineering, which happened in the last two years in private equity markets. For example Musk's Twitter deal. This recession will have a domino effect on private credit. Fed won't be able to bail out becuse this deleveraging will not be the bank's balance sheets but in NBFC'
Looks like the market has started sensing it now. LQDH ( invest grade credit spread hedged) ETF dropped to the lowest level in more than a year.
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