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It was obvious to some of us there would be inflation SOON, and that trying to limit inflation would lead to a stock market crash and recession.
This was NOT at all obvious to you, and you insisted the Fed would forever keep everything spinning. You had no interest in worrying about any of this. You did not care that the stock market had become mostly a giant pyramid. You were making lots of money, you could afford to lose half, you did not see a big crisis coming.
I, and others, predict this crisis will be different. You yourself said history doesn't repeat, and that is correct. The only thing we can predict about this crisis is that it will be WORSE. Unless the magicians can think up some new way of keeping the illusion floating. But they can't, because reality says they must choose between different types of economic devastation.
I know you said, years ago, that avoiding equities is stupid. If I had followed your advice, most likely I would wind up with about the same net worth either way. But I didn't have the stress and anxiety.
Now that is pure nonsense ..
All you needed to buy was a simple S&P fund or total market fund and no way would you be behind even today .
In fact you could have picked a conservative fund like wellesly income and been way ahead ..
All you needed to buy was a simple S&P fund or total market fund and no way would you be behind even today .
In fact you could have picked a conservative fund like wellesly income and been way ahead ..
So I call BS
Go ahead , pick a year and I will run it
Sure, if you only count periods when everything was inflating like crazy, and there was a long stretch of that. But let's say it all gets cut by at least half in this crash -- would I still be ahead. No, of course not. Even you mostly got out of equities recently.
Sure, if you only count periods when everything was inflating like crazy, and there was a long stretch of that. But let's say it all gets cut by at least half in this crash -- would I still be ahead. No, of course not. Even you mostly got out of equities recently.
You want me to show you how wrong you are. About having less .
You want me to pick the last 5 years , 10 years , 15 years , 20 years .
There is none you wouldn’t be ahead in.
So you want to base everything non what may be a temporary drop in one year.
So had you stayed in cash instruments the last 5 years , 10 , 15 and 20 years , vs a conservative fund like wellesly with just 40% equities or a total market fund , here is your balance based on 10k
5 years
Wellesly 13,239
Vti 18,378
Cash instruments 10,560
10 years
Wellesly 18,574
Vti 34,664
Cash instruments 10,614
15 years
Wellesly 25,233
Vti 37,423
Cash instruments 10,597
20 year
Wellesly 36364.
Vti 58971
Cash instruments 12,724
Those include 4 months of downturn this year.
Ytd Wellesley is down a mere 8.59% right up to last night 5/19.
I run 3 different models and all three are down less than. 9% including today
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-20-2022 at 03:42 PM..
I got a similar result just by being careful with money the last 20 years I was working. And if I had invested in stocks and doubled or tripled my savings, I could lose half or more in the current crash. Retirees supposedly had nowhere else to save except the stock market, so I'm sure many were advised to stay in.
Time will show that MATHJAK was just an EMPTY SUIT. He was a HEAD CHEERLEADER for the FED and ZIRP. He was telling everyone how great the FED is and how ZIRP and low interest rates are good for you and our country. He was basically supporting everything what the FED did and all this money printing, yes, stealing money from our kids and grandkids to FAKE economic growth and create stock market bubble. He loved it and was telling everyone don't worry be happy.
I can't believe that this forum actually financially rewarded him for his nonsense and constant cheerleading for the FED and ZIRP. He absolutely loved this everything bubble economy and Ben Bernanke was his IDOL.
Mathjack is NOT some investment GURU, he is just a guy who took advantage of FED's gravy train and didn't want it to stop.
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