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True, but most of those 'diversified' funds are heavily tech-weighted, if you are referring to index funds. On paper they look diverse, but it's really only a handful of players that move it up or down.
Very true. Both are heavily weighted toward tech. To see a really healthy market, we need to see broader participation.
it isn’t even the bull run that counts the most ..it is the early big gains missed by those waiting for signs of a turn around….
by the time the timers realize it isn’t a suckers rally they missed the biggest days
I think statistically the gains early on are the biggest, but who's to say we are "early"? Given the average bull market is a few years in length and averages something in the area of 20%/year we could very well have much much higher to go if we look at history.
Stock prices rising only means the dollard is dropping in relative value. Has nothing to do with prosperity - as in the prodigious production of surplus usable goods and services equitably traded and enjoyed.
World was never really ending, but the stock market gains were FED pump induced since covid. Now the FED is reducing balance sheet and has high interest rates, stocks are very expensive.
Before covid with greatest economy ever and even near 0 interest rates and low 1-2% inflation, the SP500 was like 3400 and Nasdaq was 9000. And that was only 3 years ago.
Nasdaq well above 13000 and SP500 4300 with FED tightening and reducing balance sheet.
Seems very awkward.
No one can time the market perfectly. but holding cash on sidelines wait for a crash then jump in and ride it out no matter what happens than add more over time is something I wanted to do so much yet the crash never has happened since 2008-2009. And no covid crash does not count it was so insanely sharp and fast more like 1987.
Looking for more a tech bubble burst 2000-2002 or 2008-2009 were there were bargains for months not for like 1 week or even less in March 2020
Then jump in and ride it out a heavy blue chip dividend fund and add more over time while also mixing in higher yield stuff.
For now I have a small amount invested going to leave it alone and just put a large sum in a CD with 4-5% interest rates.
Got to keep 401K contribs going and maybe dollar cost average in. But a large lump sum on sidelines is a very dangerous risk into this market that could very well be like tech bubble with expensive stocks and no FED ZIRP policy. Though maybe not. Would be much safer if FED had near ZIRP policy and inflation was low to justify very expensive stock prices as long as something si somewhat real on the other side unlike many of the dot com companies in 1999- early 2000??
It does look like the markets are shrugging off any signs of recession. I'm up 5% this year in 5 months, which is fine. Could I have been up more, yep, but not getting greedy.
Yup. I don't even think of this as a bull market - to me, it's just recovery from Dec 2021. My total portfolio is still 5.6% below where it was on Dec 27th 2021 (that was my highest point). And I was making contributions up until my retirement 3 months later! It's been a long downturn for me, and it was certainly not in my retirement forecast planning. Definitely changed my plans for any splurges. But I'm hoping that eventually, maybe I can put some of those plans back in place. Who knows. It's really been a rollercoaster lately these last 2-3 years.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigCityDreamer
We did have a bear market though.
And we're still 10% off the record high in January 2022.
Yup. Do people just completely forget about that??
Yup. I don't even think of this as a bull market - to me, it's just recovery from Dec 2021. My total portfolio is still 5.6% below where it was on Dec 27th 2021 (that was my highest point). And I was making contributions up until my retirement 3 months later! It's been a long downturn for me, and it was certainly not in my retirement forecast planning. Definitely changed my plans for any splurges. But I'm hoping that eventually, maybe I can put some of those plans back in place. Who knows. It's really been a rollercoaster lately these last 2-3 years.
Yup. Do people just completely forget about that??
Bear markets are normal and are part of the process. They are unavoidable unless one thinks they are a great market timer. The long term return of stocks is ~10% and that INCLUDES all the bear markets!
Do people just not realize THAT???
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
Staying the course is a time-tested strategy that works more often than not, and for long-term investors, is a great tool to use.
Bear markets are normal and are part of the process. They are unavoidable unless one thinks they are a great market timer. The long term return of stocks is ~10% and that INCLUDES all the bear markets!
Do people just not realize THAT???
Um…maybe I didn’t make my point. The media and everyone is talking about a bull market… Yet we still have not recovered from the bear market. That’s what I was saying. For me, I’m still in a “down” position Obviously, I know bear markets exist. Nothing I said indicated otherwise. Got it?!
Stock prices rising only means the dollard is dropping in relative value. Has nothing to do with prosperity - as in the prodigious production of surplus usable goods and services equitably traded and enjoyed.
not even close to fact
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Definitely changed my plans for any splurges. But I'm hoping that eventually, maybe I can put some of those plans back in place. Who knows. It's really been a rollercoaster lately these last 2-3 years.
Nothing I said indicated otherwise. Got it?!
