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Just read a report about the exploding crime rate in Kingsport. I lived in Kingsport about ten years back and I don't remember a lot of crime. What happened?
I just checked the latest numbers reported by the TBI and in 2016, the crime rate (Group A crimes per 100,000 residents) was 12,076 vs. 2015's 11,650. That's an increase of 3.7% which is certainly not the direction you want to go in, but it's also not what I'd call "exploding."
FWIW, some other reported 2016 crime rates: Knoxville (11,731), Bristol (11,296) & Johnson City (8,253). The statewide average was 8,227. I've spent a lot of time in all four of these cities and have never felt unsafe in any of them, but I've been a victim of property crimes twice: once in JC and the other time in Roan Mountain.
Let me make a few technical points regarding the crime rate:
1st, the UCR, which is the most common official crime statistics, is comprised of crimes known to the police. The 8 index crimes are counted each time a report is filed, all other crimes are counted only after an arrest is made. They also only report the most serious crime in a particular criminal incident. So it a criminal is charged with 5 crimes, the official statistics counts only the most serious. My point is that the crime data is incomplete by its nature, and much more reflective of police activity. Two cities with the same actual levels of crime will appear different based on how proactive the police are. The more active the police, the higher the crime rate. In my opinion, this means it isn't always "bad" when the crime rate increases.
Also, keep in mind that there will always be crime. The crime rate is so much lower than it was a couple decades ago nationwide that most cities don't have much room to go but up in their crime rate.
Having said that, crime is always different based on locality. There are some cities in the U.S. that are witnessing a large increase in homicides right now, that is largely urban localities that have much community tension. On the other hand, Tennessee is basically the epicenter of the meth problem, but even meth (according to the official numbers) is less of a problem in TN than in years past, evidenced by the number of meth lab seizures being approximately 25% of the level we were at in 2010.
My main point is that people get too caught up in these official numbers. Most people seem to feel safe in the Tri-Cities, and most of the police departments do a good job at investigating crime. A random crime can occur anywhere, at any time- but if you stay out of bad situations your likelihood of being a victim of a violent crime seems pretty low.
I grew up in and still work in Kingsport. IMO, the city has really taken it on the chin the past ten or fifteen years. First, Kingsport was more heavily dependent on larger scale manufacturing than the other cities (Bristol has had manufacturing, but still they had nothing like Eastman). As we all know, manufacturing has taken a severe hit. Quebecor is gone, AGC manufacturing is gone, Eastman is extremely hard to get hired onto/many jobs are contracted out and the contractors pay poorly, some smaller stuff is gone, etc. All this has, IMO, led to a significantly degraded employment base in the town and with that comes lower incomes and subsequently crime. The unemployment rate doesn't show it, as we've added a lot of low paying "junk jobs," but IMO, the vibe of the town has declined from middle class to working class/poor over the years.
You can see evidence of this all over the town. Malls are hurting everywhere, but the Fort Henry Mall really began its decline about ten years ago, with the bottom kind of falling out within the last five. Instead of being a Middle America middle class shopping mall, its few remaining nonanchor stores are trending low end now, like a flea market. Stone Drive is chock full of low end businesses like "check cashing" places, payday lenders, dollar stores, title lenders, rent to own shops, pawn shops, cash for gold stores, and low end service providers like Boost Mobile and Acceptance Insurance. A decade or two ago, there were more middle class businesses and less of the low end stuff. I commute down 126 and there used to be an auto parts store in a building with a blue roof on the left - that building looks like it will fall down. There is a lot of property in core Kingsport that just isn't kept up well and residents don't seem to take a lot of pride in keeping things up.
As you start going down the economic ladder, and Kingsport seems to be doing that overall, you tend to get more crime. That's not saying that there are no good jobs in Kingsport, no nice neighborhoods, etc., but the trend seems to be getting worse, not better.
Most of the younger professional people (<35) I work with in Kingsport live in Johnson City and drive over. A few live in Bristol. I know very few younger professionals with decent jobs living in Kingsport. The housing stock is dated and not as nice overall IMO as Johnson City or even parts of Bristol (Bristol VA along Euclid has some lovely homes, along with the historic stuff back toward Anderson St.), but it's cheap - again, I think it goes back to seeing an exodus of middle to higher income professionals to Johnson City, with those remaining in Kingsport being lower income, less educated, and more disposed to crime.
I don't feel unsafe in Kingsport. Most of the crime is drug or domestic, and contained among people who know each other. Kingsport also has a lot of poorer, older residents that aren't committing crime. The Times-News makes the issue seem worse than it is - they'll put some sensational, low brow (but ultimately not serious) crime on the front page or Facebook to get clicks. Still, until Kingsport can lure back in more professionals and higher end residents somehow, as well as getting the current inept city government out, I think this crime problem, or at least this impression of it, will remain.
Last edited by Beretta; 05-11-2017 at 08:15 PM..
Reason: see DM
Just read a report about the exploding crime rate in Kingsport. I lived in Kingsport about ten years back and I don't remember a lot of crime. What happened?
Can you please link the article here so we can see it?
I just checked the latest numbers reported by the TBI and in 2016, the crime rate (Group A crimes per 100,000 residents) was 12,076 vs. 2015's 11,650. That's an increase of 3.7% which is certainly not the direction you want to go in, but it's also not what I'd call "exploding."
FWIW, some other reported 2016 crime rates: Knoxville (11,731), Bristol (11,296) & Johnson City (8,253). The statewide average was 8,227. I've spent a lot of time in all four of these cities and have never felt unsafe in any of them, but I've been a victim of property crimes twice: once in JC and the other time in Roan Mountain.
Excellent point.
Also, it has to be said that each law enforcement jurisdiction may report crime at a different rate or level and that also may hold true under different commands in the same jurisdiction at a different point in time.
I grew up in and still work in Kingsport. IMO, the city has really taken it on the chin the past ten or fifteen years. First, Kingsport was more heavily dependent on larger scale manufacturing than the other cities (Bristol has had manufacturing, but still they had nothing like Eastman). As we all know, manufacturing has taken a severe hit. Quebecor is gone, AGC manufacturing is gone, Eastman is extremely hard to get hired onto/many jobs are contracted out and the contractors pay poorly, some smaller stuff is gone, etc. All this has, IMO, led to a significantly degraded employment base in the town and with that comes lower incomes and subsequently crime. The unemployment rate doesn't show it, as we've added a lot of low paying "junk jobs," but IMO, the vibe of the town has declined from middle class to working class/poor over the years.
You can see evidence of this all over the town. Malls are hurting everywhere, but the Fort Henry Mall really began its decline about ten years ago, with the bottom kind of falling out within the last five. Instead of being a Middle America middle class shopping mall, its few remaining nonanchor stores are trending low end now, like a flea market. Stone Drive is chock full of low end businesses like "check cashing" places, payday lenders, dollar stores, title lenders, rent to own shops, pawn shops, cash for gold stores, and low end service providers like Boost Mobile and Acceptance Insurance. A decade or two ago, there were more middle class businesses and less of the low end stuff. I commute down 126 and there used to be an auto parts store in a building with a blue roof on the left - that building looks like it will fall down. There is a lot of property in core Kingsport that just isn't kept up well and residents don't seem to take a lot of pride in keeping things up.
As you start going down the economic ladder, and Kingsport seems to be doing that overall, you tend to get more crime. That's not saying that there are no good jobs in Kingsport, no nice neighborhoods, etc., but the trend seems to be getting worse, not better.
Most of the younger professional people (<35) I work with in Kingsport live in Johnson City and drive over. A few live in Bristol. I know very few younger professionals with decent jobs living in Kingsport. The housing stock is dated and not as nice overall IMO as Johnson City or even parts of Bristol (Bristol VA along Euclid has some lovely homes, along with the historic stuff back toward Anderson St.), but it's cheap - again, I think it goes back to seeing an exodus of middle to higher income professionals to Johnson City, with those remaining in Kingsport being lower income, less educated, and more disposed to crime.
I don't feel unsafe in Kingsport. Most of the crime is drug or domestic, and contained among people who know each other. Kingsport also has a lot of poorer, older residents that aren't committing crime. The Times-News makes the issue seem worse than it is - they'll put some sensational, low brow (but ultimately not serious) crime on the front page or Facebook to get clicks. Still, until Kingsport can lure back in more professionals and higher end residents somehow, as well as getting the current inept city government out, I think this crime problem, or at least this impression of it, will remain.
I grew up in and around Kingsport, and my parents live there now. I have noticed over the years a slow decline in retail in and around Kingsport, but also the cleaning up and trend towards downtown improvements and gentrification in small spots, to a certain extent (downtown).
I think most cities in the US under roughly 100k in population, that are not suburbs of major cities, and depend on 1 or 2 major industries to support the local employment and population, struggle to maintain their "head above water" when it comes to just keeping people living there and the city vibrant.
Cities like Johnson City have a huge advantage over other cities with similar size, in that they have a big university/college in the city, allowing for a constant economic/creative/dynamic natural "engine for growth" and the draw for others to move in.
As for the Fort Henry Mall, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, with the new theater company taking over, and the renovation set to happen. Malls everywhere are doing pretty terribly--on the whole. So the fact that Ft Henry is able to invigorate itself and have money invested in its infrastructure is huge--most malls like that in smaller cities like Kingsport would be bulldozed, turned into churches or community centers, or just sit empty.
The long term future success for Kingsport will be a diversification of their overall economy, and less reliance on Eastman and manufacturing. If they can somehow jump onto the digital/service economy--get a piece or two of that--that would be the right step to take.
I grew up in and around Kingsport, and my parents live there now. I have noticed over the years a slow decline in retail in and around Kingsport, but also the cleaning up and trend towards downtown improvements and gentrification in small spots, to a certain extent (downtown).
I think most cities in the US under roughly 100k in population, that are not suburbs of major cities, and depend on 1 or 2 major industries to support the local employment and population, struggle to maintain their "head above water" when it comes to just keeping people living there and the city vibrant.
Cities like Johnson City have a huge advantage over other cities with similar size, in that they have a big university/college in the city, allowing for a constant economic/creative/dynamic natural "engine for growth" and the draw for others to move in.
As for the Fort Henry Mall, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, with the new theater company taking over, and the renovation set to happen. Malls everywhere are doing pretty terribly--on the whole. So the fact that Ft Henry is able to invigorate itself and have money invested in its infrastructure is huge--most malls like that in smaller cities like Kingsport would be bulldozed, turned into churches or community centers, or just sit empty.
The long term future success for Kingsport will be a diversification of their overall economy, and less reliance on Eastman and manufacturing. If they can somehow jump onto the digital/service economy--get a piece or two of that--that would be the right step to take.
Kingsport did not organically develop but was rather founded 100 years ago as an industrial city and has suffered as manufacturing becomes a smaller part of America's economy. The city reached its pinnacle 40-50 years ago when its population equaled or exceeded Johnson City's and it was the retail hub of the region. Lots of good paying blue-collar jobs (and white-collar too) made Kingsport essentially the stereotypical mid-century All-American city.
Starting probably in the 1980's but accelerating through the 90's and 2000's Kingsport saw numerous industries shut their doors and others significantly downsize. These good-paying jobs were replaced by lower paying service-sector work in a scene that's been repeated in cities throughout the nation, particularly in the rust belt. A decline in incomes/increase in poverty will naturally lead to an increase in crime. Serious Conversation has it right in that Kingsport has seemingly gone from solid middle-class to more working-class/poor/redneck.
It has been discussed ad-nauseum on this board but Kingsport seems to be spinning its wheels, not sure exactly what it wants to be or where it wants to go. They have the best PR campaign of the Tri-Cities, a nice resort in Meadowview, a new aquatic center, and the Greenbelt but can't seem to generate any momentum. The population has essentially been flat since the 1990's with growth only occurring through annexation and that trend doesn't seem to be turning around. It's like the city just doesn't have an identity or an image to promote. Bristol has NASCAR and the distinction of being the birthplace of country music giving it name recognition and some credibility in the music/arts world. Johnson City is developing a reputation as an outdoor recreation and music hotspot and as a hip/cool place overall with much of this due to the presence of ETSU and a large number of transplants that add vitality and energy.
I don't know what the answer is for Kingsport but the city needs to decide what it really wants to be and set some realistic goals to achieve in the next several years.
Kingsport did not organically develop but was rather founded 100 years ago as an industrial city and has suffered as manufacturing becomes a smaller part of America's economy. The city reached its pinnacle 40-50 years ago when its population equaled or exceeded Johnson City's and it was the retail hub of the region.
When you mention that Kingsport reached its pinnacle 40-50 years ago, are you referring to population of both cities--at that time in the 1950s/60s?
Because, as I'm sure you know, Kingsport's population is roughly the highest it has ever been currently, with the exception of the last 5 years or so where it has declined by maybe a few hundred to a thousand or so.
Kingsport is now around 52-53,000 or so for the city--thanks in large part to annexation; and Johnson City is around 67,000 or so roughly--both cities having reached their "highest population ever totals."
The cities in the 1950 census may have had Kingsport ahead of JC--which is what I'm thinking you were referring to, right? And if so, yes, Kingsport was definitely the tri-cities "lead city" back then, but has definitely fallen to a distant 2nd currently.
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