[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Average price was up 3.8%. Condos median was up a little Condo average down a little.

The median was down 1.2%. There's a reason Case-Shiller tracks the median and not an average. You called May the bottom with just one day left in the month and still missed it. Call the bottom every month and you're bound to get it right at some point.

In June as of the moment the average is flat and the median is up 2% since May.

So June is the new bottom?

It is the bottom barring some new event.

Prices have bottomed, unless they go lower.

Suck it up and take it Tony. We have a bottom.

This from the same person that said time was running out to buy over a year ago? How'd that prognostication work out?

Again, all the predictive value of a roll of the dice.

[RCCCB]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

The median was down 1.2%. There's a reason Case-Shiller tracks the median and not an average. You called May the bottom with just one day left in the month and still missed it. Call the bottom every month and you're bound to get it right at some point.So June is the new bottom?Prices have bottomed, unless they go lower.This from the same person that said time was running out to buy over a year ago? How'd that prognostication work out?

Again, all the predictive value of a roll of the dice.

Safe to say that though experts can guess better at probable trends than civilians, still no one knows the future.
I've also read articles that have been saying the moratorium on housing was lifted in June 1st by most financial institutions and that the REOs won't hit till August. That suggests we lave a slowing point artificially from the moratorium and that August would have another huge volume of foreclosures on the market.

Yet again I have to say, "WHO REALLY KNOWS"?
The answer is THE BANKS, and unless there will be insiders spilling the beans, we aren't going to know what's happening till it happens IMO.

Have a good day! Worrying one way about this or the other won't make any difference IMO. :-)

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

The median was down 1.2%. There's a reason Case-Shiller tracks the median and not an average.

Case Shiller uses averages....from CS...

"The S&P/Case-Shiller® Metro Area Home Price Indices are designed to reflect the average change in market prices for constant-quality homes in a geographic market."

As you should well know if you follow this stuff. "Median" is meaningless when you are dealing with 90 days rolling averages. You knew that right?

You called May the bottom with just one day left in the month and still missed it. Call the bottom every month and you're bound to get it right at some point.So June is the new bottom?

I said we are in the bottom. May screw around down here for months...It appears volume is now dropping as low REO inventory starves the market. I would think an end to the bottom would be some months of at least slight growth.

Prices have bottomed, unless they go lower.This from the same person that said time was running out to buy over a year ago? How'd that prognostication work out?

Again, all the predictive value of a roll of the dice.

Actually it says that prices are likely as good as they get...and can move upward at any time over the next months. It has become difficult to buy well at the bottom. Soon it will become difficult to buy well in the middle.

If you are waiting for another 10 or 20% you are likely out of luck.

Now take all that with a grain of salt. It presumes the present trend continues. The recession could worsen. City Center could cancel. Gambling could be declared illegal. The lenders could start a massive attempt to foreclose on everything foreclosable in Las Vegas.

But given that the present trends continue this is the bottom. Eventually we go up from here.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Now take all that with a grain of salt.

Given your track record, I'd suggest that's an excellent piece of advice.

Originally Posted by olecapt over 14 months ago

Volume is up well over 20% from last month so it is now a virtual certainty that sales in April will be up 5 or 10% over last year. Been a long time since that happened. Inventory is clearly dropping. Pending continue to climb strongly.

Don't know how this is all going to work out but the market is changing and real fast. I will hazard a guess that if you want a real buy the timing is now or pretty soon. Nothing like a price increase or even stability with a significant year over year volume increase to start the up cycle.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/3388694-post253.html

"Hazard a guess" is apropos as your prognostications have the reliability of random guesses. I feel for those that heeded your call back in April '08. I don't have to point out what housing prices have done in the last 14 months. Guess early. Guess often. You'll be right one of these times.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Given your track record, I'd suggest that's an excellent piece of advice."Hazard a guess" is apropos as your prognostications have the reliability of random guesses. I feel for those that heeded your call back in April '08. I don't have to point out what housing prices have done in the last 14 months. Guess early. Guess often. You'll be right one of these times.

Garbage...it was before the lenders started dumping inventory at well below market prices. I did not expect suicidal behavior on the part of the lenders.

If Las Vegas gets hit by a meteorite I likely won't see that coming either.

At any given point in the process events can overtake the best of rational projections.

Another indication that the bottom nears. CA sees a slight upturn.

Southern California home prices rise slightly in May - Los Angeles Times

And Phoenix..

Phoenix Area Home Market at a Glance - May MLS median sold price UP $4,000 — Arizona Real Estate Notebook

[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Given your track record, I'd suggest that's an excellent piece of advice."Hazard a guess" is apropos as your prognostications have the reliability of random guesses. I feel for those that heeded your call back in April '08. I don't have to point out what housing prices have done in the last 14 months. Guess early. Guess often. You'll be right one of these times.

Given the propensity to declare "trends" based on one data point, it's amazing that he's never forecast the trend to continue down despite so many opportunities with multiple data points over the past year.

There's been nothing particularly interesting about this mess. There was a bubble, it popped and the ride down hasn't been all that surprising if you understand the process of deflating bubbles.

I don't know about another slew of REO's, but I always felt the housing market would bottom about 6 months after unemployment peaked, when people who've lost their jobs go into default (again, symptomatic of recession and nothing even to do with a bubble). There will be a fair amount of new defaults in the coming months because, although I think the overall economy has bottomed, recovery - particularly in employment - is going to be slow and not for some time.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Garbage...it was before the lenders started dumping inventory at well below market prices. I did not expect suicidal behavior on the part of the lenders.

If Las Vegas gets hit by a meteorite I likely won't see that coming either.

Translation = I didn't anticipate what the market would do so I ended up being dead wrong. One should assign your bottom calls a similar value to a Ouija board consultation - likely to be wrong, but indulged for the entertainment value.

Originally Posted by ClarkGrisowld

Given the propensity to declare "trends" based on one data point, it's amazing that he's never forecast the trend to continue down despite so many opportunities with multiple data points over the past year.

There's been nothing particularly interesting about this mess. There was a bubble, it popped and the ride down hasn't been all that surprising if you understand the process of deflating bubbles.

Amen. When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Translation = I didn't anticipate what the market would do so I ended up being dead wrong. One should assign your bottom calls a similar value to a Ouija board consultation - likely to be wrong, but indulged for the entertainment value. Amen. When the only tool you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

There was no market drive. The entire thing is lender driven. The real market sits there still 30 per SF over the REOs. And they do sell...just slowly.

Have you figured out yet that Case Shiller is all averages?

[horseplayer]

It will be interesting to see what the end of the First Time Buyer Credit in the Fall will do to the market; both before and after. At a certain point, the Title Companies and the Lenders will be telling people "no can do by 11-30-2009." Oooops, there goes my downpayment.

[Daddys///M3]

Originally Posted by horseplayer

It will be interesting to see what the end of the First Time Buyer Credit in the Fall will do to the market; both before and after. At a certain point, the Title Companies and the Lenders will be telling people "no can do by 11-30-2009." Oooops, there goes my downpayment.

I'm not sure I understand. The FTHB tax credit is good as long as you close on a property by the end of the year. Being that you cannot currently use it as a downpayment anyway, your analysis does not apply.