[ocean2026]

Interesting Geos - as for Detroit I do know several mansions for sale at less than 10% their 2005 price- I'm tempted but the crime -taxes and cold scare me away If the place wasn't watched continually all the copper would be gone.

For crime, climate and taxes I'd probably pick where I live now in Rockport but I hate the summers. Don't like the summers in Vegas either.

I am also investing in other things besides real estate. UNG a natural gas ETF is at 11 something and natural gas which it tracks will not stay at $3.25 per mcf. I also like a few banks selling way below their book in good places - UWBK in Colorado and FSNM in New Mexico..

Colorado has the best future- not only is it growing during the recession, but the exhaustive Pew survey found Denver by far the number one place people would like to move. Vegas was actually pretty far down the list - sort of surprised me. For a place to live men liked it quite bit more than women.

Where I live is unpolluted safe and growing - I love the ocean and hate traffic but as I mentioned hot summers are no fun.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Olecapt continues to publish what the inventory is. And updates it every few days. But some cannot read apparently.

And some buy badly and describe their conquest in much more glowing terms then the acquisitions actually deserve.

The people who bought badly are the ones that listened to your nonsense about it being a "gamble" to sit on the sidelines and that "time was running out". SFR prices have cratered 41%-42% since those astute observations. Talk about buying badly.

And actually both Ravi and Tony agree that it is the time to buy. They just don't want to acknowledge that they agree with me.

Ahh, so Tony does have a position then? Well then, let's make sure it's accurately described. I believe Tony said there were any number of scenarios where it could make sense to be a buyer, right now. Those scenarios are not predicated on it being the bottom of the market.

The condo stuff continues to push upward. Both median and average are up in July...the median by almost three percent. It may well go up as fast as it went down. And that is hard to believe. SFR remains neutral.

I'll be looking forward to your bold prognostication for July's numbers with but a single day left in the month. I'm pulling for you to get this one right.

[ocean2026]

olecapt isn't the only person not able to understand data and digest evidence. When I taught college I would sometimes bring my criminal defendants to class with me. I would prepare the kids with the police reports and pick a few to prosecute and defend. We would then have a "trial". Before hand no matter how guilty some of the criminals were - they would deny it -even with full confessions. There would be an answer for everything .Usually it was someone else's fault -even the police.

Many times after seeing 35 students without exception voting "GUILTY" reality will hit them.

Olecapt has ignored Trulia, the Las Vegas Sun, the Review Journal, PMi, realtors assn, Schiller reports, Housing predictor, United Guaranty declining markets survery and many more. When the numbers come out for last June and show newer lows he will make excuses and rationalizations. I predict BOTH lower numbers and MORE excuses. For Olecapt to admit he was wrong he would have to be thrown out of his apt and lose his car so he couldn't go to the library to use their internet! lol

This is really too bad because Olecapt does have specific and valuable knowledge to share and he is intelligent and articulate. Those who are negative on him might say even my criminals had knowledge to share ( where to hide drugs - how to break into buildings etc) so what can we do?

[olecapt]

Hey ocean better get on Hubble...

"Home-price cuts dip in LV, signalling boost for market"

BlamesTrulia ...says Las Vegas has dropped from second to 44th in terms of reduction in lislt prices. No sure what that means but Trulia thinks it is important.

Does not appear to be up in the electronic edition so no link

[tony soprano]

I thought this article did a reasonable job of presenting both the bearish and bullish case for the Vegas housing market. As you read it, I'm sure you'll recognize many of the same points that have been made in this thread, from both sides of the debate.

False Bottoms - Or When the Tail Wags the Dog

[las vegas drunk]

I personally think Olecapt is right, but only for for now. I feel the market is going to start going up for a little while like he says. BUT, I then think the market is going to crash completely, sending housing prices plummeting hard. So in summary, I feel this is a temporary anomaly that appears to be a bottom, when in really isn't. Anyone else feel the same?

[KCfromNC]

Originally Posted by olecapt

For goodness sake...here is the data...



It was and is a CS bottom forming...

For some reason you left the most recent data out of your chart :

[jwt8070]

I think it will be interesting to see what will happen after Nov 30 when the $8000 credit for the first time home buyers expires. The current home buying frenzy is largely driven by the first time buyers who make up about 50% of the sales activities in Vegas. I expect that there will be a lot less first time buyers in the market after Nov 30. The ones who are in a position to buy a home will have bought a home by then and the rising unemployment rate will limit the number of new first time home buyers to come to the market.

If there is another round of home price deappreciation, as some predicted, it will begin after Nov 30.

[geos]

Originally Posted by ocean2026

Interesting Geos - as for Detroit I do know several mansions for sale at less than 10% their 2005 price- I'm tempted but the crime -taxes and cold scare me away If the place wasn't watched continually all the copper would be gone.

For crime, climate and taxes I'd probably pick where I live now in Rockport but I hate the summers. Don't like the summers in Vegas either.

I am also investing in other things besides real estate. UNG a natural gas ETF is at 11 something and natural gas which it tracks will not stay at $3.25 per mcf. I also like a few banks selling way below their book in good places - UWBK in Colorado and FSNM in New Mexico..

Colorado has the best future- not only is it growing during the recession, but the exhaustive Pew survey found Denver by far the number one place people would like to move. Vegas was actually pretty far down the list - sort of surprised me. For a place to live men liked it quite bit more than women.

Where I live is unpolluted safe and growing - I love the ocean and hate traffic but as I mentioned hot summers are no fun.

Rockport, MA, TX or ME? I love swimming and water sports in general so I would find it difficult not to be near a large body of water but some sacrifices must be made. Summer in Vegas is pool weather. It's unbearable for only 3 months, right?

I buy energy & commodities on dips like now. Futures options on oil: $130 1/11, $150 1/12, gold: $1300 6/11, silver: $23 1/11.

More good news on RE: Subprime debt's new threat to housing - MSN Money

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by KCfromNC

For some reason you left the most recent data out of your chart :

Attachment 45174

March was included.

Your data is wrong...or CS is supplying different numbers in different places.

March is -.312
Feb is -.317
Jan is -325
Dec is -.316