[fishordie]

Originally Posted by Positiveone

All I want to know is have we hit the bottom yet?

As I have noted in the past we have hit the bottom and have seen a slight increase in price, in my opinion, ONLY for the lower end homes over the last 6 - 12 months or so and only for those purchased at a price similar to or out of foreclosure. These are the homes which were purchased at a price where if the owner chose to rent the property they would see double digit returns from the rent. I continue to state we have NOT seen the bottom on all other price levels above the lower end, positive return on investment, properties in Vegas or the surrounding areas. Many other parts of the country are doing better but Vegas is still a tough market for appreciation above the lower end.

Contrary to popular belief there are many properties going out at Trustee sales where investors are picking them up, rehabbing them and selling them to folks who are still getting double digit returns on the investments. Most of the ones I have seen lately are Condo's as the SFR's have slowed down at least the ones with great returns.

There are areas showing double digit ROI's on Condo's even after the rehab, some of which are minimal repairs, is performed so you can be assured the companies and investors buying out of trustee sales are doing well. If you go to a trustee sale you will see the same folks there over and over again and the savvy ones are making money.... good money. Of course cash is king at these sales so be aware.

Best of luck

[WestieJeff]

I don't know the answer, but we're looking at properties in the 300k-400k range and I'm seeing prices circa 1998. These properties are far under replacement cost.

These properties sold for these prices in 98'ish and interest rates would have been in the mid 6% range back then.

These higher end properties were never good rental candidates, so you can't look at it from that perspective.

Bottom line, it's very affordable to buy right now and IMO far more affordable than it has been in the last 10+ years.

I think we've overshot the bottom, but I don't know when that will correct.

Originally Posted by fishordie

As I have noted in the past we have hit the bottom and have seen a slight increase in price, in my opinion, ONLY for the lower end homes over the last 6 - 12 months or so and only for those purchased at a price similar to or out of foreclosure. These are the homes which were purchased at a price where if the owner chose to rent the property they would see double digit returns from the rent. I continue to state we have NOT seen the bottom on all other price levels above the lower end, positive return on investment, properties in Vegas or the surrounding areas. Many other parts of the country are doing better but Vegas is still a tough market for appreciation above the lower end.

[007 license to sell]

This is a pretty good article that address's all the different predictions from the different analysts and how some were way off in their earlier predictions.

And how they have changed their predictions to be more pessimistic. And how the different analysts predictions for future property values could be lower by 5% this year to stabilizing in 2012 and another that says the housing market in Vegas will not see a correction until 2032.

In other words no one really knows.

Analyst recaps bungled housing predictions of yesteryear Jan. 31, 2011 By Buck Wargo Larry Murphy and other housing analysts have gotten plenty of criticism for their forecasts. Their predictions were wrong about the Las Vegas housing market and how far sales and prices would fall, and they admit that.

[Fastrudy]

As I have said a bunch of times, "You can take all of the economists in the world, and lay them end-to-end and they still won't reach a conclusion." Forecasts, analysis and predictions are not to be trusted when you are dealing with a non-science. They still argue about the fundamental quantities in economics.

[007 license to sell]

Home prices reach new lows for nine cities, Vegas down 60%


Data through November 2010 reveals negative annual growth rates in 85% of the major MSAs studied by S&P.

[RCCCB]

300% increase in foreclosures talked about here:

Coming Soon: A 300-Percent Increase in Foreclosures - Hit & Run : Reason Magazine

[SportyandMisty]

Originally Posted by Positiveone

All I want to know is have we hit the bottom yet?

... said the parachutist with the faulty 'chute.

[eventusstultorummagister]

Originally Posted by RCCCB

300% increase in foreclosures talked about here:

Coming Soon: A 300-Percent Increase in Foreclosures - Hit & Run : Reason Magazine

It's a simple fact that the banks are holding more homes then they can ever hope to sell and it's just a matter of time before the banks start unloading the backlog. It will be near impossible for people to sell their homes as supply dwarfs demand. Investors and foreign buyers are the only thing keeping prices from tanking.

I now realize that being "shutout" by investors was a blessing in disguise.

[Swigchow]

Originally Posted by 007 license to sell

Home prices reach new lows for nine cities, Vegas down 60%


Data through November 2010 reveals negative annual growth rates in 85% of the major MSAs studied by S&P.

The chart seems to have some encouraging suggestions. Looks like the California cities bottomed a couple of years ago, and possibly LV seems to have leveled somewhat. Atlanta, Seattle (ouch), and Portland are trying to catch up.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by Swigchow

The chart seems to have some encouraging suggestions. Looks like the California cities bottomed a couple of years ago, and possibly LV seems to have leveled somewhat. Atlanta, Seattle (ouch), and Portland are trying to catch up.

Try...

Home Prices in Selected Cities, Through November 2010 - Interactive Graphic - NYTimes.com

Which is a differential plot and shows signs that we are in fact in a double dip situation nationally if not locally.