[rpachigo]

Report: In 2010, 99.8 percent chance of lower home prices - Las Vegas Sun

The hits keep on coming. There is a 99.8% chance Olecapt will disagree with this.

[radraja]

That's not really news. 2010 is only a year away. I don't think anyone expects the recession/housing crisis to fix itself entirely in a year.

It may take a few years. No one can really say for sure. But that doesn't mean that things are going to be bad forever, so lets not start a panic.

[airics]

there is also a 99.8% chance that Rpachigo will post another doom and gloom story that everybody knows or doesn't care about, in the next 7 days.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by rpachigo

Report: In 2010, 99.8 percent chance of lower home prices - Las Vegas Sun

The hits keep on coming. There is a 99.8% chance Olecapt will disagree with this.

You are absolutley correct. Olecapt believes that only second sight allows one to project any economic conditions with a probably of 99.8%.

How well did they do on projecting 2008 in 2006?

[Fastrudy]

As Mark Twain said, "There are lies, damned lies and statistics."

If all of the economists in America were to be laid end-to-end, they still would not reach a conclusion.

Catch the "Trillion dollar bet" on NOVA sometime, it is enlightening.

The budget chairman of a major university wrote a memo to the Physics department to inform them that they could not fund a seven million dollar machine requested for research. The memo indicated that the budget had to be spread evenly amongst all departments. It went on to say that they wished all departments were as easy as the Mathematics department, who , yearly, only required paper, pens and wastepaper baskets! It further said that the Economics department was even better....they didn't need wastepaper baskets.

Economics, like education, is deparately trying to quantify a quality that can't be quantified.

Just my two cents.

[spike42]

Originally Posted by olecapt

How well did they do on projecting 2008 in 2006?

Exactly! How did they do in August 2008 predicting the financial implosion in September 2008? To say nothing of the fact that trusting insurance companies ranks right up there with "honest lawyers."

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

How well did they do on projecting 2008 in 2006?

PMI publishes their housing market risk index on a quarterly basis. In September 2006, PMI forecast a 54% chance that Las Vegas home values would fall over the following two years. We all know how that worked out.

http://www.pmi-us.com/media/pdf/products_services/eret/pmi_eretappndx_06v4.pdf (broken link)

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

PMI publishes their housing market risk index on a quarterly basis. In September 2006, PMI forecast a 54% chance that Las Vegas home values would fall over the following two years. We all know how that worked out.

http://www.pmi-us.com/media/pdf/products_services/eret/pmi_eretappndx_06v4.pdf (broken link)

Ohh facing into the worst hit area of the worst RE disaster in a very long time they claimed it was 50/50?

Hey there is someone really good. 50/50 My gosh what prescience!!

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

Ohh facing into the worst hit area of the worst RE disaster in a very long time they claimed it was 50/50?

Hey there is someone really good. 50/50 My gosh what prescience!!

It's a far sight better than realtors who suggested it was a good time to buy.

[ClarkGrisowld]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

It's a far sight better than realtors who suggested it was a good time to buy.

It's always a good time to buy if you're a realtor