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Jonathan Miller is no shill. If you read his writings and see his interviews he's got his feet firmly planted on the ground.
In any market, good or bad, agents earn money when buyers and sellers agree on a price. Good agents want good information, that's what they pay him for.
IMHO, Miller is a shill -- paid by the local REA conglomerates, quoted all the time by local pro-real estate newspapers, a bull in a bear market for those reasons. If you want reality, I would say Case-Schiller has been the most neutral as well as Long Island Bubble....now where is that fella when we need him?
I think is something like 30% or so - the wife earning more than the husband. That is "lots" compared to old times.
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You are right that most people may be scared without reason.
At one point, we lived in a place where we were an extreme minority. Nevertheless, I tried to enroll my child (white) in the inner city school (about 95% black). Call me crazy. The school director thought I was crazy and insisted on a re-assignment based on minority... So we did.
That's probably the biggest downside, the schools in LI's "bad" areas aren't just bad academically, some of them can actually be truly dangerous (I've seen video of Hempstead school board meetings in which some of the HS students, who are mostly good kids, were saying that were actually afraid of physical harm while in school). But, there are always options when it comes to school. Charter, private, homeschool.
Looks like the earlier analysis that the US is slowly morphing into a second Japan just got even more confirmation. According to the Census Bureau (not NAR data, which we will hence ignore completely due to its consistent bias, error and overall worthlessness) December New Home Sales declined from 321K to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 307K in December, on expectations of a rise to 321K from last month's revised 315K. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis the US sold a whopping 21K homes, the lowest since January 2011, and on par with the lowest on record. What is more troubling is that according to Bloomberg, the 2011 number of 302K sales is the lowest on record. Of these 21K, 5K were not even started. So much for that housing recovery. And also confirming that there is not even a glimmer of hope for the US housing market is that the Median Price for new homes just dropped from $215,700 to $210,300, which is the lowest median price since October 2010.
Ah yes, noses up in the air, huh. Don't know much about DP, but what's wrong with mid. class WB and Lindy, decent SD, and great train access? That's where I'm looking so I can downsize and retire, and you also have young couples buying first houses. The last good values left in a decent area within 1 hour to the great city. To do the same, I'd say Freeport and Hempstead is settling by someone more adventurous than me.
Excuse me if i don't buy a $500K+ home on LI, and I drive my older car to Goodwill for a pair of jeans, and then on the way home, stop for a Starbucks and laughing all the way to the bank next.
If you're willing you can get a sound, strong, well built home for 200K +/- in Hempstead (or similar towns). These are the type of areas where people who want to stay on LI and own a house, but aren't rich or willing to sell their souls, MUST buy into. And, it can be done on ONE income, like the old days, and the kids can have a mother.
It's almost guaranteed that these so-called undesirable areas will come back around because crappy economy means less money. And even with "low" prices for average homes in "good" areas you are still looking at 350k, which for most people means stretching two incomes to the max and having a really stressful time of it (and for what? so you don't have to hear someone speaking Spanish or see a neighbors house with old windows?)
So, the alternative, for somewhat more forward looking and open minded individuals, or simply those with no other feasible options, is to fill in the "bad" areas and buy "fixer uppers". However, that will require not being an entitled, lazy "I deserve a 500K house on the water at 22 years old" spoiled brat and doing some hard work. Like the old days. The payoff will be immense when these areas come around (like almost ALL historically significant and geographically desirable areas do). This will mean a demographic shift, gentrification and whatever other labels one could come up with. But it WILL happen, because it has to.
IMO, it's going to take something a little bit more radical than "cheap housing" to bring back an area like Hempstead. Do suburban ghettos ever gentrify?
Ah yes, noses up in the air, huh. Don't know much about DP, but what's wrong with mid. class WB and Lindy, decent SD, and great train access? That's where I'm looking so I can downsize and retire, and you also have young couples buying first houses. The last good values left in a decent area within 1 hour to the great city. To do the same, I'd say Freeport and Hempstead is settling by someone more adventurous than me.
Excuse me if i don't buy a $500K+ home on LI, and I drive my older car to Goodwill for a pair of jeans, and then on the way home, stop for a Starbucks and laughing all the way to the bank next.
Teachers and Cops should not have to "settle" for middle class towns.
IMO, it's going to take something a little bit more radical than "cheap housing" to bring back an area like Hempstead. Do suburban ghettos ever gentrify?
It's already happening. Lots of new development going on in the downtown area.
When I started here I was told that housing would only dip 10% at most then bounce back. 30% and still going later...
I heard 25% and right now am at 25%. Hope that holds. I am no expert and this is just a rational layman's take:
I've been looking at what's out there for $250-$300k in Levittown and it's mostly crap that needs lots of work. My friends had complete updates and a sweet yard in Island Trees and it sold in 30 days for $430k in December (they asked $449k) so people will still snap up a good deal.
I thought $470k was ridiculously inflated for my house (2007-8 estimate) just like I think $340k (zillow) is ridiculously low. It will go back up to $390k the minute the economy turns around because it will be the nicest thing anyone sees in the area after a day of looking at $300k homes.
If and when the economy turns around, in decent school districts, the "flippers" and contractors will snap up everything under $250k and anything in move in condition will start at $325k and up again.
Thus, it will be called a "correction" which is ultimately what it is. IMHO
I heard 25% and right now am at 25%. Hope that holds. I am no expert and this is just a rational layman's take:
I've been looking at what's out there for $250-$300k in Levittown and it's mostly crap that needs lots of work. My friends had complete updates and a sweet yard in Island Trees and it sold in 30 days for $430k in December (they asked $449k) so people will still snap up a good deal.
I thought $470k was ridiculously inflated for my house (2007-8 estimate) just like I think $340k (zillow) is ridiculously low. It will go back up to $390k the minute the economy turns around because it will be the nicest thing anyone sees in the area after a day of looking at $300k homes.
If and when the economy turns around, in decent school districts, the "flippers" and contractors will snap up everything under $250k and anything in move in condition will start at $325k and up again.
Thus, it will be called a "correction" which is ultimately what it is. IMHO
Like I've said before, if you're looking for something that's in good shape and updated in the last 10 years, it not as much of a buyers market as you would be led to believe.
There is a lot more 20+ year old kitchens and baths out there in the inventory than anything else, and that stuff you can have your pick of if you want it. The thing is, right now..nobody wants it. The days of getting the HELOC after getting a 300K mortgage to update 35 year old kitchens and baths are over.
Let the retiring baby boomer get the friggin heloc against his equity, update that mess, and then maybe he'll get some offers. Otherwise, a lot of houses that are 1 year+ sitting on the MLS.
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