Stunning Gains in September - Number of Maine Homes Sold Was Up 22.78%, Home Values Up 19.56%! (Washington: job market, buy)

[seasallyttle]

I think people are mistaken in thinking this is a bubble. I think Southern and Midcoast Maine are just price adjusting to the rest of the coastal areas of the country.

[WhoFanMe]

Originally Posted by seasallyttle

I think people are mistaken in thinking this is a bubble. I think Southern and Midcoast Maine are just price adjusting to the rest of the coastal areas of the country.

I think you're right. If the market corrects 25% (as it did from 2008-2011) after gaining 40% or more, people are going to be wishing they bought in the "good old days of 2021." Until supply catches up with demand, prices are going to continue to rise.

[Northern Maine Land Man]

Maine is bigger than the other five New england states put together. The high prices are based on economic opportunity. They are where the good hospitals are located and coastal towns.

[WhoFanMe]

June Update - Sales in Maine were up 14.7% over 2020. The median sales price statewide reached $310,000, up 24.5% from June 2020. In Cumberland County, the median sales price reached $450,000 29.7% higher than June 2020. York County came in at $402,500. Aroostook County continues to be the state's most affordable, the median sales price was $116,900, up from 95,000 in June 2020.

[svband76]

Originally Posted by WhoFanMe

June Update - Sales in Maine were up 14.7% over 2020. The median sales price statewide reached $310,000, up 24.5% from June 2020. In Cumberland County, the median sales price reached $450,000 29.7% higher than June 2020. York County came in at $402,500. Aroostook County continues to be the state's most affordable, the median sales price was $116,900, up from 95,000 in June 2020.

Anything Bar Harbor south towards Portland I'm guessing is insane. Everywhere minor sees gains.

[n8ivmainah]

Median sales prices in Cumberland County is up 29.7% YoY?!?! That's insane.
I understand that stock market jumping 65% over the same time because it fell 35% in 33 days in Feb-Mar. But did Maine real estate prices drop at all in 2020? I don't believe so.

[nm9stheham]

Remember that the US in June 2020 was still in the throes of the initial waves of corona and that house prices in the spring of 2020 were not reflective what they would have been without the virus. I would not put a lot of stock into that June year-over-year comparison.

Here is a much better view IMHO of Maine house prices over the long term from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, who keep a lot of economic data. If you look at the overall long term trend, smoothing out the ups and down, it is on a pretty steady trajectory... as is most of the US. It does show a strong price uptick in the last year or so.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MESTHPI

You can also find 'Portland-South Portland' versions of this Federal Reserve data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ATNHPIUS38860Q

These graphs are relative numbers, not in in $100k

[n8ivmainah]

Oh man, thanks for reminding me of the FRED data...now I'll be looking at this all day!

Anyway, interestingly, if you run the second graph as a LOG, you'll the recent increase is NOTHING as compared to the 80s or mid 90s.

Now that is very, very interesting. And gives me some serious pause in the way I was looking at this before

[nm9stheham]

Originally Posted by n8ivmainah

Oh man, thanks for reminding me of the FRED data...now I'll be looking at this all day!

Anyway, interestingly, if you run the second graph as a LOG, you'll the recent increase is NOTHING as compared to the 80s or mid 90s.

Now that is very, very interesting. And gives me some serious pause in the way I was looking at this before

LOL.... now let's get really off into the weeds with numbers....



What logarithmic base is being used? Base10 (which is what the log checkbox does on he vertical scale) is not necessarily the right base to make this show what we want to see; the best thing to show is probably 'relative value'. If that is the case, the best logarithmic base is that which gives a doubling of the index over 20 or 21 years on the vertical scale .... which reflects average inflation over the last 50 years of 3.5% per year. That would show the slope of the graph so as to more easily judge prices versus long term average inflation, which most folks can better process as 'relative value'.

[n8ivmainah]

Just a side note, new home sales down 19.4%, nationwide, in last 12 months.

https://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/...ics/index.aspx