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Old 05-20-2019, 07:31 PM
 
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So the consensus is that we should buy when our lease ends and not try to wait it out? We plan to live here at least 18 years.
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Old 05-20-2019, 07:44 PM
 
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Originally Posted by matrix5k View Post
So the consensus is that we should buy when our lease ends and not try to wait it out? We plan to live here at least 18 years.
Only you can answer this question. If you have 800k I would try & get a property in a town/city that will hold its value long-term. Burlington is hot these days, but when/if a downturn in real estate comes I can't say that town will hold up.

It's a difficult spot to be in. I wish you luck.
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Old 05-20-2019, 07:49 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
Only you can answer this question. If you have 800k I would try & get a property in a town/city that will hold its value long-term. Burlington is hot these days, but when/if a downturn in real estate comes I can't say that town will hold up.

It's a difficult spot to be in. I wish you luck.
Are you basing this statement on any facts or is this just a gut feel? I completely disagree with your assessment that Burlington will not hold up.

Burlington held up just as well as any town in the last downturn. Check the zillow and trulia graphs. There was no dip in Burlington. Look at the 20 year chart on Trulia. Long term trend is straight up and only a flattening in the 08 crisis.

A 800k SFH purchase in Burlington will hold up just as well as a 800K purchase in Lexington. For 800 you'll get a newish modern large home in Burlington and an old beaten down small out of date home in Lexington. The location isn't as good in Burlington but its still pretty damn good and the delta in home prices between these 2 towns more than makes up for it. The 800k home in Burlington would be at least 1.3k in Lexington. Burlington borders Lexington so you have neighborhoods along the border that are virtually equivalent in terms of location but the price drops off by 40%.

It isn't surprising to me at all whats happening to Burlington. I think the town is one of the best investments in the area actually.

Last edited by panchilly; 05-20-2019 at 08:00 PM..
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Old 05-20-2019, 07:54 PM
 
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Are you basing this statement on any facts or is this just a gut feel?

Burlington held up just as well as any town in the last downturn. Check the zillow and trulia graphs. There was no dip in Burlington.
Do you expect me to tell the poster that Burlington is going to sail through a downturn? It's not Newton or Wellesley, or Brookline. It a solid edge town, but it's nowhere near a sure bet IMO. Personally, I would not spend 800k or more in Burlington. Does not mean I don't like the town.
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Old 05-20-2019, 08:03 PM
 
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Originally Posted by matrix5k View Post
So the consensus is that we should buy when our lease ends and not try to wait it out? We plan to live here at least 18 years.
No one knows, but with a window that long you're certainly sheltered from shorter term trends. My primary concern as buyer right now would be to have a real equity in the home (this includes home equity loans) so if in when a recession or rate hike drives down RE prices AND you're forced to move/relocate, you're not net negative. Given how competitive the market it is, few offers will land a home without a competitive down payment, so that risk is pretty low. In Worcester county this is a bigger potential issue. Seems like obvious advice ... particularly in this post '08 world; however, I knew a a number of people who got burned with home equity loans post-'08 and in some markets/properties I've seen some very low-equity deals (<8%).

Other than that, buy the best neighborhood/district you can afford which works with your quality of life.
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Old 05-20-2019, 08:07 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
Do you expect me to tell the poster that Burlington is going to sail through a downturn? It's not Newton or Wellesley, or Brookline. It a solid edge town, but it's nowhere near a sure bet IMO. Personally, I would not spend 800k or more in Burlington. Does not mean I don't like the town.
Again, what are you basing these statements on?

Look at the 20 year charts comparing Burlington and Wellesley

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/B...market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/W...market-trends/

They both performed near identically in appreciation and both went flat from 05 to 13 just like all the other so called "immune" towns like Newton, Lexington, etc.

I see no reason to believe that Burlington will perform much worse than Wellesley in the next downturn. I would expect them both to perform similar in the next downturn. You are providing poorly thought out advice.
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Old 05-20-2019, 08:21 PM
 
6,573 posts, read 6,740,252 times
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
Again, what are you basing these statements on?

Look at the 20 year charts comparing Burlington and Wellesley

https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/B...market-trends/
https://www.trulia.com/real_estate/W...market-trends/

They both performed near identically in appreciation and both went flat from 05 to 13 just like all the other so called "immune" towns like Newton, Lexington, etc.

I see no reason to believe that Burlington will perform much worse than Wellesley in the next downturn. I would expect them both to perform similar in the next downturn. You are providing poorly thought out advice.
I'm not paying over a million bucks for new construction in Burlington. No way. You, or anyone else for that matter, can take my advice or leave it. It's of no consequence to me. Redfin says Burlington home prices are down close to 5% since last year...take these "internet" sources for what they are worth.

If you think Burlington will stay on par with towns like Lexington & Newton & Brookline in the future, cool. I do not. Past performance is not indicative of future trends.

Schooldigger has Burlington public schools rated 142. No thanks. Third rate. They come up lacking in most every review I can find.

Last edited by Brave Stranger; 05-20-2019 at 08:47 PM..
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:30 PM
 
622 posts, read 563,879 times
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Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
I'm not paying over a million bucks for new construction in Burlington. No way. You, or anyone else for that matter, can take my advice or leave it. It's of no consequence to me. Redfin says Burlington home prices are down close to 5% since last year...take these "internet" sources for what they are worth.

If you think Burlington will stay on par with towns like Lexington & Newton & Brookline in the future, cool. I do not. Past performance is not indicative of future trends.

Schooldigger has Burlington public schools rated 142. No thanks. Third rate. They come up lacking in most every review I can find.
That -5% is bull****. It’s due to the listings mix and how Redfin calculates it. Check Zillow home value index it shows solid gains.

I never said Burlington is on par or would stay on par. I said it would appreciate at a similar rate
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:40 PM
 
6,573 posts, read 6,740,252 times
Reputation: 8793
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Originally Posted by panchilly View Post
That -5% is bull****. It’s due to the listings mix and how Redfin calculates it. Check Zillow home value index it shows solid gains.

I never said Burlington is on par or would stay on par. I said it would appreciate at a similar rate
Statistics cut both ways, don't they Your Zillow, which is regarded as a joke, or my Redfin. And to make it clear I don't see Burlington appreciating at a similar rate as Lexington or Concord, or Newton or Brookline going forward.

In any event, investing millions in a town like Burlington with their schools is suspect, at best. Not a long term bet I would take with that kind of money.
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Old 05-20-2019, 09:45 PM
 
622 posts, read 563,879 times
Reputation: 241
Quote:
Originally Posted by Brave Stranger View Post
Statistics cut both ways, don't they Your Zillow, which is regarded as a joke, or my Redfin. And to make it clear I don't see Burlington appreciating at a similar rate as Lexington or Concord, or Newton or Brookline going forward.

In any event, investing millions in a town like Burlington with their schools is suspect, at best. Not a long term bet I would take with that kind of money.
You mentioned 800k now you are talking “millions”?

What about a large newish 800k home in Burlington vs an old small beat up cape in Lexington for 800k? Location could be very similar as the two towns border each other.

What would you do in that situation.
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