Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: reviews, supplier, colleges)

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by id77

You're getting more square footage and more land that's worth less per unit than those inner suburbs, which is exactly why you're able to get more of it. You can buy 4,000 square feet in an Acton for less than 1,000 in Brookline only because a lot more people want that spot in Brookline than there are people wanting that spot in Acton (to be clear, this isn't to say nobody wants to live in Acton).

You also won't see the same long-term pace of appreciation out past 495. If it's your forever home, it's all fine and a moot point as long as you're happy. I think for a younger couple or single person who's just got the newfound freedom of WFH (if only temporarily) though, it's not a smart move to abandon a market that's on a long-term trajectory into the stratosphere, and with many more convenient employment choices, in exchange for more of something less valuable and convenient, unless they're just renting since rents gonna jump regardless of what they do. Buying-wise though, what's happening in Boston and its nearest, densest neighbors right now is the same as what happened to the stock market in late March, so those who are wise to it will catch the correction while they can; another chance might not come along for a while.

uh...not really. Look smaller places will come back before larger places. In February I saw Book of Mormon on Broadway. I don't think anything will be playing in Broadway until 2022. The Red Sox probably aren't going to play in Fenway next year.

What props boston up was academia and what props that up was international students. So even if we go back to normal say in August that doesn't mean it's normal for the rest of the world. Without immigrations Massachusetts would have zero population growth going back to the early 1990s. Population growth is important. Most businesses want to comp, that is they want to do more now vs the past, even if it's 1%. Otherwise lower profits eat with inflation and pretty soon it hurts them. The pattern is the following and this happened in the Berkshires decades ago and is now happening in Franklin county and now cape cod

1) Student population drops
2) General population drops, it starts to age out
3) Smaller businesses drop
4) Larger businesses drop

Businesses cannot always sell the same products to the same ages. How many people in their 80's buy new cars? How many in their 70's have additional children? How many 50 year olds go back for a bachelors etc. As people age they generally have enough. The reason why the 18-49 demographic is important is because it's things like first degree, first apartment, first car, first house, first kid etc. Many points of high spending. If you take that out it's harder to market.

As for 495 I'm not sure if you read about other markets but the NY'ers went to Fairfield County CT, then to New Haven and now to Hartford and Tolland County and soon Hampden.
https://www.fox61.com/article/money/...0-d8b45b21fbcb The biggest UMass campus is in Amherst and the biggest UConn Campus is in Storrs (Mansfield/Tolland County). Even if the argument is that academia is strong in Boston it frankly has a better economy of scale in the Knowledge Corridor due to pricing.

Even with the pandemic I've seen more small businesses open up and expand in downtown springfield. A cafe, a printshop and a cookie store. The printshop is the most surprising to me because that storefront has been vacant for at least 12 years. I think what's driving this is the malls are closing or redeveloping so if you are a small business you can get a better rate in more downtown urban areas rather than try to develop in suburbs that lack resources. Getting back to reopening what's going to reopen first AHL (Hartford and Springfield) or a Bruins game? Investment gains as a percentage are important. It's easier and more secure to invest in wider markets rather than say one boston property. I grew up in south east mass and one commercial company bought out a plaza and they advertise they have affluent people around it (and they do) but it doesn't *really* mean they are going to shop there. At one point they had a jewelry store next to a great bakery, a bike shop and a music store that catered to kids. Easily something any community would want...so it was torn down for a...wait for it...gas station!

As for work it is funny. Where I work I found out the guy that hired me lives an hour away and rarely in. Heck one time his twitter feed said he was in the East Village! My supervisor comes in *maybe* every few weeks. Right now we're trying to get away from paper and move as much as we can into the cloud. Then again there's an employee so afraid of the virus she won't leave that floor of the building. People will still go into boston but they aren't going to want to live there. Heck if it wasn't for Boston residency another 30,000 would be looking for another place to live. Sports aren't going to get people back in. I've been to many games but the quality of HD and 4K saves me the time and effort of going into boston. So if education is online, you don't need special health care 24/7, sports are streaming, people cook now so the idea is just dropping. It really doesn't make sense to concentrate everything on one area. The other reason to leave is simple...floodzones. New ones came out (see floodfactor). The rail connecting NYC and Boston will be directly compromised with Mystic and New London being under water. Cutting rail off at that point cuts off cities. As for academia the zero population growth that started in 2008 comes to maturity in 2026. So as covid really ends the drop in students has a further impact. Between zero population growth, lack of immigration and online classes I see a huge decline in the market in Boston. Take a look at your smart phone and think of all the things it replaced. Radio, walkman, camcorder, pager/beeper, phone, camera, maps, game system, desktop computer, tv etc. Quite a bit of what you can do in boston you can do somewhere else cheaper. Do we still have camcorders and flip phones? Sure but the market is lower.

As for northampton Hampshire county did the right thing but having students go back home and take classes online. I crunched numbers of western mass and frankly Berkshire county will have more covid per capita than Hampshire county by the end of the year and more than Hampden (springfield) by the end of February. There's a difference between those legitimately moving for more space and cheaper housing and those bugging out to "escape the corona". Houses in the berkshires are already high. So I can argue that the 2nd home owners from NY are inflating the heck out of the numbers. Keep in mind there's no drug store clinics either in the whole county.

I really don't think things will be back in a few years. Capital is too global and they want ROI. They won't wait for large venues to open and rather be involved in smaller areas that are easier to deal with. The days of the 50,000 AC/DC concerts and sporting events are over but at the same time students aren't coming back.

[msRB311]

I also agree that many things won't return to what they were before. I think there are a lot of things people don't want to go back to. One thing that comes to mind is commuting by train. I foresee this is something that people just wont do again and will work their employer to not have to do it if it ever comes up again. It was gross even before the pandemic but necessary for the butt in seats mentality.

As far as packed venues go I think it will depend on if people want to go...for something like a concert they might? It seems like attending sports games was already kind of on the way out....? I haven't been to any kind of sports game in years.

[Taffee72]

Just wanted to remind everyone that it's Small Business Saturday today. If you have any shopping to do, please consider buying from and supporting the small businesses.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by mdovell

The Red Sox probably aren't going to play in Fenway next year.

Disagree, unless Marty or Charlie prevents them from doing so. Which could happen but by Opening Day the vaccine should be available to the general public by then, esp since there's rumors of OD being delayed a bit. That's one question I have is how quickly will Charlie pull the trigger on moving to Phase 4 once the vaccine distribution starts.

[redplum33]

The Red Sox will play at Fenway. Whether or not fans will be allowed is the question.

[yesmaybe]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-1...ut-11606485601

Going to be difficult to do vaccine trials soon because the people who join these studies do it because they want early access to the vaccine. Once a vaccine becomes available it's going to be tough to recruit people, and even the current ones are in trouble because people who suspect (or can confirm via antigen test) they got the placebo will opt for the real thing and effectively drop out of the study.

[Dm84]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

Disagree, unless Marty or Charlie prevents them from doing so. Which could happen but by Opening Day the vaccine should be available to the general public by then, esp since there's rumors of OD being delayed a bit. That's one question I have is how quickly will Charlie pull the trigger on moving to Phase 4 once the vaccine distribution starts.

You will not be able to casually walk in and get a vaccine on demand until at least the summer. It will probably be 6 months after that point before the state considers phase 4 IMO

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by Dm84

You will not be able to casually walk in and get a vaccine on demand until at least the summer. It will probably be 6 months after that point before the state considers phase 4 IMO

If Pfizer and Moderna hit the production levels they are talking about, you should be able to get it by March or April.

Phase 4 at that point becomes a purely political decision.

[Boston Shudra]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

Phase 4 at that point becomes a purely political decision.

Eh. I’m sure they’ll want to see that’s it’s working and then make the call.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Boston Shudra

Eh. I’m sure they’ll want to see that’s it’s working and then make the call.

Keep in mind that the vaccine will not lower the transmission risk from those who are vaccinated. So you need a high % of vaccinations plus a continued high % of compliance with masking & social distancing directives. I can only see venues being 100% safe if proof of vaccination is required for admission.