Boston area population lost 2020-2021 (middle-class, apartment, tech jobs)

[id77]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

Millennials are also aging out of cities. There no big generation to cause the type of gentrification we saw the last 15 years. Help is not on the way. I was saying that much 2/3/4 years ago on here.

International migration, which has typically helped drive people into Boston, slowed considerably last year. The county gained fewer than 3,000 residents who moved from another country. That number was 11,678 in 2017, Strate said, before the Trump administration’s more rigid immigration policies and the pandemic helped stanch the flow of people into the United States.

Strate said high housing costs could also be driving people out of Boston, as well as the flexibility many white-collar workers gained during the pandemic to work remotely. In some cases, she said, the millennials who once flocked to Boston a decade ago could now be “entering a different life phase,” in which they’re starting families and seeking the extra room and cheaper housing suburban and rural communities offer.


MA as a whole lost 38k people while growing in far southeastern MA. NH gained 11,000 people
There’s also what Strate called the potential “head for the hills effect” brought on by the pandemic.

Cape Cod, Nantucket, and Martha’s Vineyard — popular destinations for people’s second seasonal or vacation homes — saw the biggest percentage gains in population in Massachusetts. And while New Hampshire saw more deaths than births, every county around the state saw more people move in than out, helping grow the state’s population by more than 11,000 people.

Dropping population, rising rents? MA housing market is broken and obviously needs development in the suburbs that is affordable and nearer to Boston.

I think the Millennial aging out of cities aspect is little more than noise. There's Millennials in every city, so if it was a driving factor, there'd be a net negative migration in every city. They're not all suddenly packing up and moving out to rural Kansas, and if these numbers reflect MSAs rather than downtowns/city boundaries as stated, the vast majority are migrating from one MSA to another.

Strate is correct -- it's the cost backed by additional WFH flexibility allowing for less commute dependence. There's pockets of migration based on politics here and lifestyle change there, but the gorilla in the room has been and continues to be cost. Looking for other causes is tilting at windmills.

[simplexsimon]

Originally Posted by msRB311

What exactly does 'work the lab space' even mean? I work at a medical school and people have been back working in labs since 2020. They were the first ones back.

The sciences continue to grow and there is a significant amount of new lab space being built. It is the new hot commercial real estate tenant.

[msRB311]

I will note that the population increase on places like Cape Cod, Nantucket, and MV were in many cases homes being bought by well off people already living in the Boston area. I don't know why 2020/2021 became the year of let's buy a second home! but it was.

I think many people used to make Boston their home once upon moving here or going to college here but I think it's more and more becoming an NYC turn style place for many. People move here for jobs, to get experience and they don't necessarily stay. It seems like people making the big money decide to stay and raise families (and settle down in wellesley, lincoln, newton, etc)...but many of the more 'average income people' are taking the job experience they've received here and go somewhere else.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by msRB311

What exactly does 'work the lab space' even mean? I work at a medical school and people have been back working in labs since 2020. They were the first ones back.

Basically any new office construction project that was proposed before the pandemic started is being changed to be lab space plus existing office space is being converted. There's apparently enough demand that they are having little difficulty finding tenants too.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

This is true but I think you will see a reversal with the 2022 numbers. Think of all that lab space being built... someone's going to have to go in 5 days a week to work it.

I doubt it will be enough to reverse the losses. People moved and many won’t be able to afford to move back, not a ton of people who went WFH will be in 5 days a week. Labs aren’t as labor intensive as offices. The dispersion of high paying tech salaries to other cities…

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by msRB311

I think many people used to make Boston their home once upon moving here or going to college here but I think it's more and more becoming an NYC turn style place for many. People move here for jobs, to get experience and they don't necessarily stay. It seems like people making the big money decide to stay and raise families (and settle down in wellesley, lincoln, newton, etc)...but many of the more 'average income people' are taking the job experience they've received here and go somewhere else.

I've noticed this as well.

[BostonBornMassMade]

Originally Posted by id77

I think the Millennial aging out of cities aspect is little more than noise. There's Millennials in every city, so if it was a driving factor, there'd be a net negative migration in every city. They're not all suddenly packing up and moving out to rural Kansas, and if these numbers reflect MSAs rather than downtowns/city boundaries as stated, the vast majority are migrating from one MSA to another.

Strate is correct -- it's the cost backed by additional WFH flexibility allowing for less commute dependence. There's pockets of migration based on politics here and lifestyle change there, but the gorilla in the room has been and continues to be cost. Looking for other causes is tilting at windmills.

I don’t think that’s noise. It makes logical sense. Millenials will move from urban cities hostile to families to suburban style cities less hostile to families ( a la Nashville).

[msRB311]

People will always be moving to Boston for jobs. That isn't going to change. But there will always be people leaving as well.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by msRB311

People will always be moving to Boston for jobs. That isn't going to change. But there will always be people leaving as well.

Until the jobs stop coming to Boston because there are no workers left to fill them.

[id77]

Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade

I don’t think that’s noise. It makes logical sense. Millenials will move from urban cities hostile to families to suburban style cities less hostile to families ( a la Nashville).

That's not a city thing. What makes a place a city and what makes a place hostile to families aren't related or dependent on another. There's also rural and suburban areas hostile to families.

What you should pinpoint and call out is what that hostility is. Is it cost of living? Then the problem is cost, not being a city. Is it poor schools? Then the problem is poor schools, not being a city.