[eagle1965]

how long do you think it will take till michigans economy turns around,and how do you think this country wil fare without manufacturing and skilled trades people

[michmoldman]

Originally Posted by eagle1965

how long do you think it will take till michigans economy turns around,and how do you think this country wil fare without manufacturing and skilled trades people

Michigan and the rest of the country will "rewire" its economic situation. Have you seen the commercial about small businesses "re-inventing" themselves to cope with the economy? Thats what all businesses will need to do. It will be rough while this process goes on because there probably wont be much hiring, but it will happen eventually. Hard to tell how long 3,4,5 years?

[Coldjensens]

4,035,654, minutes. (Probably as accuate a guess as anyone can give you). Persoanlly I think that our abundance of water will eventually attract a lot of high tech and medical business. Unless our crummy politicians give it all away. Michigan has some great potential, great resources, but decades of really cruddy politicians who seem to focus on self interest and do nothing for the State. (despite having the same Senator for 30 years, we are stiall a donor state). So it depends. Michigan is a beautiful place with loads of potential, unparalleled natural beauty, a generally hardy populace with a great work ethic, an incredible (but decaying) infrastructure and manufacturing capability, and huge quantities of fresh water. However we also have a bad reputation, unpopular cold weather, out of control unions, and anti-business government, laws and legal system, poor leadership, and too many people with a negative attitude. How will that all balance out? Anyone's guess can be right.

As to the Country - Not well. I see us becomming similar to England. A once powerful country. A former manufacturing powerhouse that once controlled or influenced the entire world, but now a has been country with a service based economy. We will survive, even thrive, but we will never be what we were. We will eventually be second fiddle to China and maybe third fiddle to Russia and China. (or Fourth with India). All are larger, Russia and China have more resources. None of them are concerned about the envirnment, at least not as much as they are about economic growth. All are coming into their own while we are fading.

[Newaygo1]

Seems that Michigan is overloaded with those in Skilled Trades as well as Engineers of all disiplines. When it first happened many thought a year maybe 2 from early 2009, but now the same people are saying 2 maybe tree before sthings get started and some jobs come back. I know many in my career filed that are out of work as well as many Electricians, Plumbers & Painters too many to compete for the few jobs that are available. Seems many are undercutting just to get the work and that seems to be a bad thing because that work is drying up. Seems for those that can afford to hire someone to do that work these days. Also hear many that are unemployed are working for cash under the table so some are getting skilled poeple at a lower cost to put job in. I can't say it is bad they are just trying to survive through these hard times whether is is doing work for family freinds or who ever will pay.

So much office space that is empty and so many new office buildings that went up before all of this happened are also empty. As for small business that is just going to have too much competition and it will be cutthroat out there for sometime.

Seems that the jobs that are available are low pay with little to offer. Finding some with decent pay and some benefits is hard to find right now. I would think it would be about 3 years before things start get going but it will be a lot different the way things work. Many will be working out of their homes to keep costs as low as possible and won't be stocking much for materails just buy what they need when they need it.

I hope I am wrong but it is tough out there...

Newaygo1

[Driller1]

We are heading toward a new "normal". NAFTA was designed to even thing out worldwide. It is working. We will hit bottom in about four years. Then it will be a dark ride.

[Sparrow_temp]

Michigan's economic problems are different than the rest of the country's. NAFTA is a big part of MI's problems but it's not the only policy that is throwing manufacturing to other parts of the world. Decisions were made at the highest levels of government to simply give up this country's manufacturing base to lift other countries up. The problem is that country's need a manufacturing base to remain prosperous.

The rest of the country's economic woes revolve around the housing bubble. That simply added to Michigan's problems but wasn't the primary cause. If the rest of the country begins to recover, it will simply act as a magnet pulling more people out of the state. Michigan's economic recovery will depend on a new equilibrium being set for a sustainable population base --it will not be a return to what Michigan once had.

I still think it'll be a long time. 2010 will be the year that the second dip of our economic recession will hit. The current economy is being propped up by trillions of dollars of federal spending that is not sustainable. Housing values have to fall further and more banks need to fail before things can get better. I expect to see inflation and rising interest rates which will create a new mortgage crisis. Nothing has fundamentally changed from 2 years ago except that the country no longer has the resources to stop the next recession and it can't set interest rates lower than zero.

Originally Posted by Driller1

We are heading toward a new "normal". NAFTA was designed to even thing out worldwide. It is working. We will hit bottom in about four years. Then it will be a dark ride.

[Driller1]

Originally Posted by Sparrow_temp

Michigan's economic problems are different than the rest of the country's. NAFTA is a big part of MI's problems but it's not the only policy that is throwing manufacturing to other parts of the world. Decisions were made at the highest levels of government to simply give up this country's manufacturing base to lift other countries up. The problem is that country's need a manufacturing base to remain prosperous.

The rest of the country's economic woes revolve around the housing bubble. That simply added to Michigan's problems but wasn't the primary cause. If the rest of the country begins to recover, it will simply act as a magnet pulling more people out of the state. Michigan's economic recovery will depend on a new equilibrium being set for a sustainable population base --it will not be a return to what Michigan once had.

I still think it'll be a long time. 2010 will be the year that the second dip of our economic recession will hit. The current economy is being propped up by trillions of dollars of federal spending that is not sustainable. Housing values have to fall further and more banks need to fail before things can get better. I expect to see inflation and rising interest rates which will create a new mortgage crisis. Nothing has fundamentally changed from 2 years ago except that the country no longer has the resources to stop the next recession and it can't set interest rates lower than zero.

Agreed! The environmental rules hurt too. Michigan is a hard place to do any business.

[YAZ]

Michigan's economy has been declining for 9+ years now; so I s'pose a better question would be:

"When is Michigan's economy going to stop declining?"

I think 10% unemployment is going to be the new benchmark. Anything over that is not so good, anything under that rate will be OK.

Remember that's pure conjecture on my part....

I've been in manufacturing for 26 years now, and I've experienced the typical high and low cycles. I have never seen it like this though. I left the automotive industry because I saw the trend of jobs moving to Mexico, China, India, et al. I moved over to the aerospace industry thinking my skills would always be in demand.

I'm seeing the same things happen in my new field. Planes being built in Mexico? At a record pace, my friends. Many components are machined and assembled in China now. My company moved some very complex machining processes to the Czech Republic. It seems like that it's never going to end.

We closed on our new home last February, and I had to call the lender to negotiate a better loan rate. I got India. I am not kidding. The poor gal couldn't understand me and had to transfer me to her boss. No luck there either. Days later I was fortunate enough to speak with someone from San Francisco.

This may be the year I start training for a position in the health care industry. Hopefully we won't outsource that too.

[Driller1]

Originally Posted by YAZ

Michigan's economy has been declining for 9+ years now; so I s'pose a better question would be:

"When is Michigan's economy going to stop declining?"

I think 10% unemployment is going to be the new benchmark. Anything over that is not so good, anything under that rate will be OK.

Remember that's pure conjecture on my part....

I've been in manufacturing for 26 years now, and I've experienced the typical high and low cycles. I have never seen it like this though. I left the automotive industry because I saw the trend of jobs moving to Mexico, China, India, et al. I moved over to the aerospace industry thinking my skills would always be in demand.

I'm seeing the same things happen in my new field. Planes being built in Mexico? At a record pace, my friends. Many components are machined and assembled in China now. My company moved some very complex machining processes to the Czech Republic. It seems like that it's never going to end.

We closed on our new home last February, and I had to call the lender to negotiate a better loan rate. I got India. I am not kidding. The poor gal couldn't understand me and had to transfer me to her boss. No luck there either. Days later I was fortunate enough to speak with someone from San Francisco.

This may be the year I start training for a position in the health care industry. Hopefully we won't outsource that too.

In five years these will be the "good old days". So much for "change".

[malamute]

Originally Posted by eagle1965

how long do you think it will take till michigans economy turns around,and how do you think this country wil fare without manufacturing and skilled trades people

It's not going to turn around for a while because the push is for cheaper and cheaper labor. That's what NAFTA, GATT, unlimited immigration and so on is all about and there's no movement in the political class to turn any of that around because -- face it -- they are working for the cheap labor international corporation interests, they do not care on bit for the American people.

They will keep getting unemployment extensions passed because that keeps their voters satisfied, keeps them in office supporting the globalist agenda. Eventually they government runs out of money, but the politicians really don't care about that either.