continuing growth in SWFL (Naples, Golden Gate: real estate, credit card, homes)

[cvap]

I realize there always is a large turnover of real estate because of an elderly population of second homeowners, however every year I hear more people saying they are going to leave because of traffic alone. It seems even off season traffic is heavy, especially for people who migrated from rural areas of the country. It doesn't seem too long ago,(although time flies) when the only way onto Marco was San Marco at Goodland. 951 went from one to two lanes very quickly so I think the county is expanding roads as fast as they can considering the type of terrain they have to work with. At what point does traffic seriously affect growth and the price of real estate, or is it already happening?

[Tripower455]

Originally Posted by cvap

I realize there always is a large turnover of real estate because of an elderly population of second homeowners, however every year I hear more people saying they are going to leave because of traffic alone. It seems even off season traffic is heavy, especially for people who migrated from rural areas of the country. It doesn't seem too long ago,(although time flies) when the only way onto Marco was San Marco at Goodland. 951 went from one to two lanes very quickly so I think the county is expanding roads as fast as they can considering the type of terrain they have to work with. At what point does traffic seriously affect growth and the price of real estate, or is it already happening?

The unmitigated growth will stop when they run out of buildable land, which is long past the time when traffic becomes unbearable.

When I moved here 30 years ago, there was nothing on 41 north of Immokalee Rd until you hit Bonita, and the only thing there was a Winn Dixie and I think a gas station. After that, nothing until you got to Ft. Myers. Now, it's a parking lot during the day.

Take a look at the Immokalee Rd and 41 corridors and other areas east of 951. There is still a lot of land that they can turn into high density developments, and the county will not address upgrading the road infrastructure until it's at least a decade past when needed. 951 and Logan needed to be extended to Bonita Beach at least a decade ago. Vanderbilt needed to go out to at least Wilson (Everglades or Desoto would be even better).

Look at Ft. Lauderdale. That's exactly what's happening in Naples. They won't stop until they completely destroy everything that made Naples a great place to live. Heck, they've already passed that point IMHO.

[JPrzybylski07]

Good question. I recently sat through a presentation given from someone who has worked in the Collier government in the growth and management division for over 30 years. I actually forgot his name, but his nick name is Mr. Google and he is a legend in the county and boy did this guy have the facts and gave a great presentation.


The majority of the new aggressive growth will happen east of 75, towards Ava Maria and the new city that's called Rural Lands West close to Oil Well rd and Immokalee rd. That whole area has been blowing up since the recovery has started from the great recession.


As far as traffic, the news is at least one overpass is already locked in for construction and will be on Immokalee road and Collier blvd.... just like the one you see now on Airport and Golden Gate. There are another 3 overpasses in the works, with another I believe planned on 41 and Collier blvd. I'm going off memory on all of this here but each overpass cost in the tune of about 40 million dollars! Also the Pine Ridge overpass on 75 will apparently be the first in our area to be completely redesigned, where the west lanes actually will criss cross over on to the east lane's side and vice versa with the east lanes which will then all criss cross back onto their normal sides after the highway over pass... It sounds confusing but it apparently helps with traffic getting in and off the highway.


Mr. Google also predicts Collier will be a blue county years down the road with all the growth out east and who is descending here.

[JPrzybylski07]

Originally Posted by cvap

At what point does traffic seriously affect growth and the price of real estate, or is it already happening?

Since I work in real estate here in Naples (title escrow) I want to write my opinions about this question. First a good chunk of this area like you already mentioned consists of second and retirement homes. On the macro level, if the economy tanks the snowball will be felt here eventually. If the stock market tanks, etc. There really is no way to predict the economy though and what will happen, on a macro or micro level. Things to pay attention to are interest rates of course, and American's are holding more credit card debt then ever now, along with the average car payment the highest it's ever been too. So there has never been as much debt out there as there is now. That being said, about half the real estate purchases in our area are CASH. That's says something about the amount of wealth situated here in Collier and Naples.


Traffic only sucks for those who work, like me. Retirees I really don't think care THAT much. Most live in nice communities with their own gyms, walking paths, pools, etc. There's a Publix conveniently located by pretty much every development so even if they have to leave their communities it's not like they have to drive far.


The tourist who come down and try to sight see as much as possible also are impacted by all the traffic. But still the main people who the traffic hurts the most are the working class people. The wealthy retirees have nothing but time on their hands.

[JPrzybylski07]

Originally Posted by cvap

I realize there always is a large turnover of real estate because of an elderly population of second homeowners, however every year I hear more people saying they are going to leave because of traffic alone. It seems even off season traffic is heavy, especially for people who migrated from rural areas of the country. It doesn't seem too long ago,(although time flies) when the only way onto Marco was San Marco at Goodland. 951 went from one to two lanes very quickly so I think the county is expanding roads as fast as they can considering the type of terrain they have to work with. At what point does traffic seriously affect growth and the price of real estate, or is it already happening?

One more thing, since we are in the midst of all the baby boomer's retiring... I think if the economy stays stable we will see more people retiring over seas or in Mexico, etc. No joke. We aren't the only 1st world country like we like to believe. If you can get an ocean front property in Mexico for a fraction of the cost then here in Florida, it's at least tempting when the US dollar goes much farther in other countries. Of course health care resources are a big deciding factor but the health care quality is not as big of a difference in other countries as is here as we like to think it is.


It's only becoming more expensive (and crowded) here in Florida to retire. More people/traffic/pollution/ of course hurts the area's appeal. Just something to think about as far as more people retiring abroad.

[cvap]

I know someone will say, "It's the weather stupid", but with the growth from NC to here, what's going to happen to all the cash strapped towns in the North that are losing taxpayers hand over fist. It eventually has to reverse, or at least slow down, doesn't it?

[Tripower455]

Originally Posted by JPrzybylski07

The majority of the new aggressive growth will happen east of 75, towards Ava Maria and the new city that's called Rural Lands West close to Oil Well rd and Immokalee rd. That whole area has been blowing up since the recovery has started from the great recession.

Ugggggghhhhhh.......... NOT good news.

As far as traffic, the news is at least one overpass is already locked in for construction and will be on Immokalee road and Collier blvd.... just like the one you see now on Airport and Golden Gate. There are another 3 overpasses in the works, with another I believe planned on 41 and Collier blvd. I'm going off memory on all of this here but each overpass cost in the tune of about 40 million dollars!

This doesn't make any sense unless they're also planning to extend 951 through to BBR in the near future. There is not that much traffic, relatively, going through that intersection on 951 north of Immokalee.

Also the Pine Ridge overpass on 75 will apparently be the first in our area to be completely redesigned, where the west lanes actually will criss cross over on to the east lane's side and vice versa with the east lanes which will then all criss cross back onto their normal sides after the highway over pass... It sounds confusing but it apparently helps with traffic getting in and off the highway.

Sounds like the the same logic that decided that a right, crossing 3 lanes of traffic and a U turn is better than making a left.

Mr. Google also predicts Collier will be a blue county years down the road with all the growth out east and who is descending here.

More great news! As I said, we're becoming Ft Lauderdale.

[JPrzybylski07]

Originally Posted by Tripower455

This doesn't make any sense unless they're also planning to extend 951 through to BBR in the near future. There is not that much traffic, relatively, going through that intersection on 951 north of Immokalee.






.

The overpass would be Immokalee going over Collier. I'm just relying information. It's happening. I understand Collier end pretty much at Immokalee but that's what the guy Mr. Google said.


It's happening unless another great recession stops all these grandiose plans.

[Tripower455]

Originally Posted by JPrzybylski07

The overpass would be Immokalee going over Collier. I'm just relying information. It's happening. I understand Collier end pretty much at Immokalee but that's what the guy Mr. Google said.

I guess it would help with the traffic turning on and off 951. I can't wait for that construction to start.....

[JPrzybylski07]

Originally Posted by cvap

I know someone will say, "It's the weather stupid", but with the growth from NC to here, what's going to happen to all the cash strapped towns in the North that are losing taxpayers hand over fist. It eventually has to reverse, or at least slow down, doesn't it?

You would think right. I guess you can't mix correlation with causation. The cities who are growing their wealth and tax payer base don't owe a thing to the cities heading on the downhill. Just like one neighboring state doesn't owe anything to the next one over when it's steals a major corporation and job base from it because of some tax cuts or other incentive the first state couldn't match. I came from Illinois 3 years ago and it's apparently the state loosing the most population out of any these past 5-10 years.


You question about it having to reverse or slow down is a good question. It's mind boggling when you start thinking into cause and effect on such a detailed level. It's kind of like not everyone can be rich because then who would do all the menial jobs right? Same thing with Florida. Not everyone can live in "paradise" because quite simply we don't have the space or infrastructure to support everyone that wants to.


As Florida continues to become more over populated/too expensive other places by default will start becoming more appealing then here which is why I brought up the idea in an earlier post about baby boomers retiring abroad being a more appealing option then it use to be in the past. The weather alone is a big factor for many, but also things like cost of living, job opportunities, traffic, quality of life, etc.. So it's up to people to decide demand and pioneer the way to a new better place if it exists.