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Old 12-21-2010, 01:56 PM
 
1,054 posts, read 1,835,658 times
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My prediction of Nebraska totalling 1,830,000 to 1,840,000 instead of slightly off from the actual 2010 Census count. My prediction was based on the 1,796,000 July 1st, 2009 estimates and the usual underestimating of Nebraska's growth by the US Census. (Many states are over-estimated prior to each count).

Actual numbers:
1,826,341 in 2010, up from 1,711,263 in 2000. This represents an increase of 115,078 (37th) people and a 6.7% (30th) increase.

My reason for being a few thousand shy of my estimate is because the United States grew at its slowest since the great depression. We have actually gained ground for the third straight decade against the US average.

For the second straight decade, Nebraska has seen more people move in than out. This despite the great rural decline (5%-25% each rural county) of 80+ counties.

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We have gained ground on the average US growth rate for the third straight decade:

A ratio of 1 means the same growth rate, less than 1 means slower than national average.

1990s
Nebraska 8.4%
United States 13.2%
Nebraska total growth ratio versus US: .636363

2000s
Nebraska 6.7%
United States 9.7%
Nebraska total growth ratio versus US: .697072

We have made a slight gain towards meeting the US average as a whole in the 2000s versus the 1990s.
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Old 12-21-2010, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Cleveland Suburbs
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Good to see Nebraska growing. In my opinion, far more attractive than other Plains States. Keep it going, Nebraska!
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Old 12-21-2010, 04:31 PM
 
Location: Western Nebraskansas
2,707 posts, read 5,362,409 times
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Quote:
For the second straight decade, Nebraska has seen more people move in than out. This despite the great rural decline (5%-25% each rural county) of 80+ counties.
Personally, I think we'd be in a far better position if rather than growing in the cities, we'd manage to at least stagnate in the rural counties...
I don't think you realize how alarming out-migration really is.
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Old 12-21-2010, 04:41 PM
 
Location: IN
20,856 posts, read 35,987,118 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itsMeFred View Post
Personally, I think we'd be in a far better position if rather than growing in the cities, we'd manage to at least stagnate in the rural counties...
I don't think you realize how alarming out-migration really is.
It's called the mega corporate ag model, efficiencies in farming equipment, subsidies, and even the CRP program. Ya, many factors come into play as we know... Youger college educated residents want a diverse array of employment options that are offered in Omaha, Denver, Minneapolis, etc. A few folks like the quiet and isolation, though
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Old 12-21-2010, 05:54 PM
 
Location: Western Nebraskansas
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Causation is irrelevant.

My point was simply that yeah, it's good that the cities are growing. But we need to be alarmed, statewide, that the rural areas are declining (and aging!) so rapidly.
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Old 12-21-2010, 06:57 PM
 
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I know it is alarming! - was just saying that as a whole, the state has more moving in than out for the secomd straight decade. All the in migration is in th few large cities. The rural counties are experiencing a 5-25 percent decrease per decade.

We all must look at the big picture and see this is good for the country. It will stabilize soon.
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Old 12-22-2010, 09:54 AM
 
Location: Western Nebraskansas
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Quote:
It will stabilize soon.
No it won't.
For the past fifty years or better, the general trend has been out-migration of the truly rural areas and growth in the cities and areas around them. Though the growth trends in both directions seem to be gaining speed.

So far as how that affects production agriculture (ie, we who feed most of you folks!!) we HAVE to go to a corporate model.

Even for people who WANT to stay in rural areas, if there's nowhere for your kids to attend school (because the town can no longer support one and the folks in urban areas are voting against continuing to subsidize them), and you have to drive 100 miles to a doctor or grocery store, it becomes increasingly difficult to make it out here...
Jobs don't pay very well to begin with and cost of living is relatively high when you consider how much you spend on vehicle maintenance, fuel costs, higher access rates for phone/internet/etc., and so on.

So who is going to stay out here and feed the world??
The corporations who own the production enterprises and the low-wage labor that works for them.


Sorry to be such a downer, Omaha, but I live in a much different part of Nebraska than you do.

~Erin

Last edited by itsMeFred; 12-22-2010 at 10:06 AM..
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Old 12-22-2010, 10:28 AM
 
1,054 posts, read 1,835,658 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itsMeFred View Post
No it won't.
For the past fifty years or better, the general trend has been out-migration of the truly rural areas and growth in the cities and areas around them. Though the growth trends in both directions seem to be gaining speed.

So far as how that affects production agriculture (ie, we who feed most of you folks!!) we HAVE to go to a corporate model.

Even for people who WANT to stay in rural areas, if there's nowhere for your kids to attend school (because the town can no longer support one and the folks in urban areas are voting against continuing to subsidize them), and you have to drive 100 miles to a doctor or grocery store, it becomes increasingly difficult to make it out here...
Jobs don't pay very well to begin with and cost of living is relatively high when you consider how much you spend on vehicle maintenance, fuel costs, higher access rates for phone/internet/etc., and so on.

So who is going to stay out here and feed the world??
The corporations who own the production enterprises and the low-wage labor that works for them.


Sorry to be such a downer, Omaha, but I live in a much different part of Nebraska than you do.

~Erin
What needs to happen is for the state to do a few things to stagnate/increase rural populations:

1) Consolidate counties across the state to no less of the size of Custer or Lincoln counties (exception to metropolitan or near metropolitan counties). Consolidation will alleviate excess spending.
2) Online schooling as an option.
3) Designate the county seat in each non-metropolitan county as a tax break center for new businesses and a break for residential property taxes.
4) Start pushing for tourism in north-central, northwest and the panhandle of Nebraska. It's absurd how the great landscapes are virtually unknown outside the state, it's simply one of the nicest areas in the country.

Things to be lost:
a) School consolidations will cause a few lost jobs, but the impact may be minimized with the right accomidations and timeframe allotted.
b) local government job consolidation will also cause a few lost jobs which may be minimized with the right accomidations and timeframe allotted.

This should lower the per capita costs in the rural areas enough to offset the tax breaks to a degree. With further government tax breaks and maybe a slight increase to the metropolitan counties this could work.
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Old 12-22-2010, 11:39 AM
 
102 posts, read 157,985 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itsMeFred View Post
Causation is irrelevant.

My point was simply that yeah, it's good that the cities are growing. But we need to be alarmed, statewide, that the rural areas are declining (and aging!) so rapidly.
Why? Tell me what effect a declining rural population will have on the state as a whole?

Look, I'm from a rural community, a very small town, but I cannot understand why these communities "have" to survive when they are unable to sustain themselves. These towns were primarily economically driven from agriculture, and as Granite stated, it has become more efficient or corporately run. There are no longer 20 jobs as a result of every 700 acres of farmland (or whatever in the hell it is).

The fact is, unless these small towns can find some sort of niche or vertical market in which they can out-perform and under-cost the competition, they will die a slow, painful death. This would be a terrible situation to rely upon federal subsidies to continue to waste taxpayer dollars to prop up.

No offense, but in the famous last words of "Big Tom Callahan", "You're either gorwin' or you're dyin', there ain't no in between".
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Old 12-22-2010, 12:09 PM
 
Location: Western Nebraskansas
2,707 posts, read 5,362,409 times
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Quote:
Why? Tell me what effect a declining rural population will have on the state as a whole?
This is like asking "Why is education important?"

The question is entirely too large for me to even begin to explain to someone who obviously doesn't have even the basics of understanding the issue...
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