Nebraska is projected to lose one U.S. House seat after 2010 (Omaha: transplants, college) - (NE) - City-Data Forum

Highpointer · 05-03-2007, 12:47 PM

A recent Wall Street Journal article about the redistricting of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2010 Census had a couple of maps of the USA showing those states expected to lose or gain U.S. House representatives after the redistricting of 2010. The map showed that Nebraska is projected to lose one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives after 2010. Nebraska currently has only three U.S. House members, so losing one member of Congress means that Nebraska is losing one-third of its U.S. House delegation.

Therefore, this means that the population growth rate in Nebrasak is substantially less than the national average. I don't understand why this is so, because it appears to me that Nebraska has a strong economy and a high quality of life. The Omaha area, for example, appears to have one of the highest number of corporate headquarters of any city of its size in the USA. Why is the population growth rate of Nebraska so slow, and why does it appear that Nebraska is lagging behind many other states in the USA?

Ken Akerman
Tempe, AZ

DTO Luv · 05-03-2007, 01:34 PM

Probably because rural Nebraska is losing people faster than Omaha is gaining.

MattDen · 05-03-2007, 05:57 PM

The house of representives has 435 members and the nation has a population of 300 million that is about 690,000 people for each district. Nebraska has a population of 1,768,000 people. So to justify 3 house seats it would need 2 million people.

I looked it up on Census because I am curious about it, all the numbers are rounded-off here by the way.

Omaha has a decent economy with a very large economic base but the rest of the state has very low wages and usually the smaller towns are driven by just a small number of companies to work for people like selection and rural Nebraska doesnt give them selection. So while Omaha is doing well, much of the rest of the state has major population decline issues.

Nebraska is growing very slowly in general. The rest of the nation is growing much faster. I believe Nebraska has gained 60,000 people since 2000 (mainly due to births, the state has a very very high birth-rate) but the nation a whole especially the sun-belt is growing much, much faster

Omaha, Lincoln and the counties along the Interstate 80 corridor or near it tend to grow and most of the rural counties are losing population very, very fast. Douglas County, Nebraska has gained 29,000 people since 2000 to 492,000 people. Cass and Sarpy counties have gained 20,000 and 17,000 people each so three counties with-in a half-hour of each other have gained 66,000 people and the the state has a whole (including those three counties) has only gained 57,000 people do to massive rural population decline in most areas.

mattpoulsen · 05-03-2007, 10:08 PM

Mattden,

I'm not sure how the law works on this issue. Does anyone know exactly how the seats are divvied out? I obviously understand the generalities, but does anyone understand how some of the specifics work...for example, where is the breakoff point where we actually lose our seat. The unfortunate thing, if we do lose one seat, is that there will be no natural fit. Right now, the three districts all have distinctly different interests and are better served with 3 separate representatives. In the event of only 2 reps, there will be a combining of the Lincoln and out-state district and this mix is really odd. You could have someone from Gering, NE representing the people of Lincoln and you could have someone in Lincoln representing the agricultural interests of out-state Nebraska. The dynamic would certainly be drastically changed. I really just hope this doesn't happen, but I fear that it may.

All that said, we aren't the only state who will lose seats. There have been major population shifts in the last couple decades and it will continue to change the political landscape.

lakenheath · 05-05-2007, 01:06 PM

Actually Nebraska does not have a very very high birth rate, it ranks in the top half of states in birth rate, but far below a state like Utah. It also ranks in the top half of death rate also, higher average percentage of elderly. Births over deaths run about 9000 per year. By 2010 the population will be around 1,800,000. With about 725,000 per congressman if divided equally by 2010, Ne will have about 600K per congressman, they keep the three? I don't know seems like it will be a close call.

cpatrick27 · 05-19-2010, 10:27 AM

there are problems in the state of nebraska that people that aren't living here cant understand. the birth rate is actually too high due to kids from 16-24 having kids. the ones that don't have kids right away and go off to college almost never come back. almost everyone person i know from age 20-30, for which i am 27, is trying to leave this state as fast as possible.

just to give you an example of why this is: Omaha city council has recently decided to curb teen violence by trying to push through a 9pm curfew. hell my parents kept me out later then that when i was a teen. the leadership of this state and people in charge of trying to move this state forward, are actually driving it backwards.

so if a seat is lost it will probably be a good thing, it might shake some people up enough to make a difference.

GraniteStater · 05-19-2010, 04:48 PM

The state of Nebraska has very very high levels of out-migration from nearly all the rural counties that are not micropolitan. The micropolitan counties tend to have slow growth. The metro areas tend to have a very high birth rate because they have a lot of rural transplants that tend to be more socially conservative. Omaha has a fairly decent economy with a very low cost of living- so that also tends to attract a more natalistic population in general. I agree 100% with the previous poster that the college educated residents tend to leave Nebraska quickly if they don't move to the Omaha metro. The issue with people having kids at a young age tends to go back to parental involvement, education, economics etc. The social culture of the Plains/Midwest also tends to be different compared to other parts of the country as people tend to get married at younger ages and settle down much earlier in life.