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Do you also think that if the price of something falls 10% a month for 11 months that it will be at -10% of the original value?
Hint: you need to multiply not add: 20% down then 40% down gives you 1 - (.8 * .6) = 52% total loss.
to make light of thing, I HAVE FOUND ALWAYS AGREE WITH THE DUDE WHO CAN DO THE MATH! This one seems pretty smart, I am now taking alook at your past posts.
I think another 40% drop in NY-metro is on the outer edge of what we can realistically expect. Personally, I don't think we'll see quite that much additional damage, but another 25% - 30% is probable in my opinion.
But the fact that major financial institutions still see this much weakness in the NY/NJ housing market is telling. Nobody but the most solid buyers who are certain to be in this for the long term and who have plenty of assets saved up should even be thinking about buying now considering the price drops and additiona layoffs coming our way.
If the prices keep going down maybe the OP will finally be able to afford one of those neighborhoods that he has been priced out of for such a long time?
I think another 40% drop in NY-metro is on the outer edge of what we can realistically expect. Personally, I don't think we'll see quite that much additional damage, but another 25% - 30% is probable in my opinion.
But the fact that major financial institutions still see this much weakness in the NY/NJ housing market is telling. Nobody but the most solid buyers who are certain to be in this for the long term and who have plenty of assets saved up should even be thinking about buying now considering the price drops and additiona layoffs coming our way.
Hey Lusitan, have you found the source of this release from DB? I did a quick look and only found references to it. I'm specifically interested in WHEN they see this happening. If NJ's real estate bear market looks like the last one, it will take years for the market to bottom. If it tracks anything like what California is going through, the market bottom will be realized (or get close to it) much sooner.
If the prices keep going down maybe the OP will finally be able to afford one of those neighborhoods that he has been priced out of for such a long time?
Hey Lusitan, have you found the source of this release from DB? I did a quick look and only found references to it. I'm specifically interested in WHEN they see this happening. If NJ's real estate bear market looks like the last one, it will take years for the market to bottom. If it tracks anything like what California is going through, the market bottom will be realized (or get close to it) much sooner.
Haven't seen the report yet, but I would not be surprised if the analysis called for a long, slow decline that will take years to reach bottom. Will let you know if/when I manage to get a hold of the report.
I also would not be surprised if it was an indexed value in comparison to either inflationary rates OR to a more sustainable real estate appreciation.
(IOW, if housing were to go up by 5% per year during a "normal" period, what would be the net loss if the house dropped 15% over 3 years rather than up 16%? (1.05^3) ). News reports have a way of doing this to get more attention for their stories.
I also would not be surprised if it was an indexed value in comparison to either inflationary rates OR to a more sustainable real estate appreciation.
I wouldn't be surprised if the 40% number was based on inflation-adjusted values, i.e. "real" value. After all, that's the only number that makes sense.
So in nominal terms, the report might not predict a 40% reduction in selling prices from March 2009, but in real terms that's what I expect the analysis predicts.
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This one seems pretty smart, I am now taking alook at your past posts.
Yikes!
