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Old 04-04-2008, 01:39 PM
 
975 posts, read 2,406,301 times
Reputation: 466
Default NYC crime skyrockets in first quarter

We sure need more of those Cops around...


NYC crime skyrockets in first quarter

Murders jumped 24.7% to 111 from 89 during the first three months of 2007 compared with the year ago period, while rapes were up 13.8% and robberies rose 4.5%.

April 04. 2008
Daniel Massey

Experts caution that the three-month period is too short to draw definitive conclusions about causes for the spike and how long it will last. Andrew Karmen, a criminologist at John Jay College and the author of New York Murder Mystery, which examines the rise and fall of crime rates in the city, says the NYPD may be having trouble keeping up with recent success. “Last year was a very good year,” he says. “It’s going to be hard to match those statistics.” Overall crime was up 25.6% in Staten Island, the sharpest rise in the city.

Criminologists also say economic downturns do not necessarily cause an increase in crime, except perhaps neighborhoods hard hit by foreclosures, where boarded-up homes and lawns choked with weeds could attract criminal activity. However, many people worry that a prolonged crime spike could hit the city’s real estate and tourism industries hard, further weakening an already teetering economy.


NYC crime skyrockets in first quarter - Crain's New York Business
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Old 04-04-2008, 01:56 PM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
5,075 posts, read 11,585,271 times
Reputation: 1617
Im tellin ya.........



NEW YORK – A union leader says New York City’s police force will shrink to its smallest size in more than 15 years under budget cuts that could take effect in July.

The plan calls for slashing 1,000 officers’ positions, for a total maximum of 36,838 officers. All the cuts would be made through attrition

NYPD Could Shrink to Smallest Size in 16 Years - Police Link
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:07 PM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 911,530 times
Reputation: 209
Good post...although it is important to keep things in perspective:

1-It really IS too short of a time frame to make any real extrapolations besides ignorant rants and tirades.
2-The city is coming off of another record drop in crime last year, to the lowest level I believe since the 60s. So increasing from that extremely low number is not surprising, nor does it indicate we are in trouble.
3-Crime rates fluctuate from year to year...some years they are up..some they are down...that's normal...but it is the LONG TERM TREND that is MOST important..and that long term trend has been decidedly favorable for the city...and crime has been decreasing over the longterm..and it continues to do so through 2007.
4-Our crime rate is so low that even an increase of 10% over last year, which would be hyped by the media as "a crime wave" and "jumping" and "out of control", the reality is it would still be a record low crime rate for the city!
5-The decrease in cops due to budget cuts is not neceessarily a bad thing, but if crime were increasing in the city in 2008, I suspect the city will miraculously find money to plug the departments deficit and keep the cops on the beat. We shall see.

Nonetheless....remember to keep things in perspective.
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:09 PM
 
Location: Polish Hill, Pittsburgh, PA
26,217 posts, read 45,899,992 times
Reputation: 11049
I should still point out that according to this web site New York City has a lower crime rate than Scranton, PA, so you're obviously doing something right!
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:16 PM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
5,075 posts, read 11,585,271 times
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Guy, the problem is that there are alot of things that spell DOOM.

The city is not doing that well finacially. Last I heard they were in debt and were heading to a fiscal crisis. This as you know was the reason the 70's was what it was.

The police force is shrinking to 1992 levels. 1992 was a terrible year in terms of crime. Any drop in police force will have a huge effect on crime.

The worst areas are getting worst. The low income keep getting pushed into the Bronx and Brooklyn. The Bronx has really felt this already. Also Yuppie/thug tension.....incidents have been occuring between them in Harlem, Bed-stuy etc...

Keep your eye open.

Im telling you.
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:32 PM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 911,530 times
Reputation: 209
SuperMario a broken clock is right twice a day..ie I can keep saying I am telling you xxxx is gonna happen...and eventually one day...someday...I will be right...although 99% of the time I was wrong!

Let's remember that it's the media's job to SELL PAPERS..they are not in the business to inform you or somehow report "news" because it is the right thing to do...they do it to make money i.e. sell papers, sell advertising space for news programs etc. And you don't have ratings when you say everything is good...you sell papers and get people worried/watching by HYPING and SENSATIONALIZING anything that is negative...which is why when you watch the news you would think half the city is robbed, attacked, raped, murdered, and we are all gonna be homeless and living like the Great Depression. That's their job to do that...it sells!

Nonetheless I do agree there are rough times ahead, as we are likely in a recession, and recession never equals happy times or increased safety. BUT nobody has a crystal ball, and we should all remember the wonderful disclaimer on all kinds of investment products that I believe applies in this case: "Past performance is not indicative of future performance." Meaning, just because things happened in 1992, or 1972 does not necessarily correlate to what MAY/WILL happen in 2008.

We can see what has happened in history, and make changes to avoid repeating history..which is why Bear Stearns was bailed out...we know what MIGHT HAVE happened...look back at the collapse of the market in 1929. Which is also why there is a big mortgage bailout plan, becuase we know what MIGHT happen, look back at the Great Depression. And yes we also know the crime and receccsion of 1992, but I AM 100% confident that, like Bear Stearns and the mortgage meltdown, we know what MIGHT HAPPEN and will make changes to prevent that from happening again.

Which is why I say let's keep things in perspective. Yes things are looking bad, but we do have the past to learn from, and they are not necessarily representative of things to come. The city may have tough times ahead...but SuperWario..do you really believe the city of the nation for that matter, will allow a repeat of the early 1990s..or worse the 70s? I say no.
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Bronx, NY
7,856 posts, read 13,440,663 times
Reputation: 2372
Why do I get the feeling the 1,000 less cops are mostly dudes that were sitting around doing nothing. Like guys that were close to retirement or had some other posts, possibly meaningless. The NYPD like a lot of other NYC institutions is a huge bureaucracy. When things are good there are a lot more extra people around, when things get tighter they make some adjustments.

The way the media phrase that figure always seems vague, but they jump on it right away. It doesn't necessarily mean there are thousands less cops out on the streets.
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Old 04-04-2008, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 911,530 times
Reputation: 209
That's a reasonable point NooYowkur...it may in fact be the case that it is not only a good excuse to get rid of alot of the dead weight in the dept, but the dept can also hype it up for their own benefit. Nonetheless...it is the Media's job, as it is the Union's, to make things sound like the sky is falling and all hell is breaking loose...because it is greatly to their advantage to do so.
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Old 04-04-2008, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Queens
841 posts, read 3,066,650 times
Reputation: 238
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guywithacause View Post
SuperMario a broken clock is right twice a day..ie I can keep saying I am telling you xxxx is gonna happen...and eventually one day...someday...I will be right...although 99% of the time I was wrong!

Let's remember that it's the media's job to SELL PAPERS..they are not in the business to inform you or somehow report "news" because it is the right thing to do...they do it to make money i.e. sell papers, sell advertising space for news programs etc. And you don't have ratings when you say everything is good...you sell papers and get people worried/watching by HYPING and SENSATIONALIZING anything that is negative...which is why when you watch the news you would think half the city is robbed, attacked, raped, murdered, and we are all gonna be homeless and living like the Great Depression. That's their job to do that...it sells!

Nonetheless I do agree there are rough times ahead, as we are likely in a recession, and recession never equals happy times or increased safety. BUT nobody has a crystal ball, and we should all remember the wonderful disclaimer on all kinds of investment products that I believe applies in this case: "Past performance is not indicative of future performance." Meaning, just because things happened in 1992, or 1972 does not necessarily correlate to what MAY/WILL happen in 2008.

We can see what has happened in history, and make changes to avoid repeating history..which is why Bear Stearns was bailed out...we know what MIGHT HAVE happened...look back at the collapse of the market in 1929. Which is also why there is a big mortgage bailout plan, becuase we know what MIGHT happen, look back at the Great Depression. And yes we also know the crime and receccsion of 1992, but I AM 100% confident that, like Bear Stearns and the mortgage meltdown, we know what MIGHT HAPPEN and will make changes to prevent that from happening again.

Which is why I say let's keep things in perspective. Yes things are looking bad, but we do have the past to learn from, and they are not necessarily representative of things to come. The city may have tough times ahead...but SuperWario..do you really believe the city of the nation for that matter, will allow a repeat of the early 1990s..or worse the 70s? I say no.
Guy, not in these generations will you see peace on earth. The poor will stay poor but you don't know about that. There's a cycle nothing can break. And then there is democracy. So nothing can be forced.

All you need to do in life is to be healthy, pursue knowledge, and get rich.
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Old 04-04-2008, 03:25 PM
 
Location: Mott Haven
2,978 posts, read 911,530 times
Reputation: 209
BXGear...strange post...but ok.
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