NYC real estate crash...the future is here... (sale, renter)
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I do have an agenda. I try to warn buyers, especially first-time and responsible ones, not to fall prey of the usually mantra of realtors and sellers that if they don't buy now they will be priced out. Greedy realtors, brokers, banks and others caused the current economic situation.
It's actually the opposite: there's a correction going on now that will render housing affordable for several years. Such corrections take several years and one should make sure that does not buy with the current inflated prices despite what re agents say.
I am not blinded at all. I just present current and historical data and I am open to discussion.
What's your agenda? And where is your data?
when it comes to historical data most of the time the only thing that repeats itself is historians.... the truth is no one knows what the future brings.... while real estate may not escalate anytime soon and may even drop more the fact is mortgage rates can shift on a dime.... on a 200,00 loan a 1% rise in rates is no different then the property shoting up 20,000 bucks while you sit on the fence and decide whether to buy....
forget about what you think will happen, we are all probley wrong anyway with our best guesses,..... if you want a home to live in then buy it.......
its an easy decision... do you think in 20 years if you caught the last 10% it will amount to a hill of beans difference anyway...
ive been an investor for over 20 years, your not going to out guess things!
when it comes to historical data most of the time the only thing that repeats itself is historians.... the truth is no one knows what the future brings.... while real estate may not escalate anytime soon and may even drop more the fact is mortgage rates can shift on a dime.... on a 200,00 loan a 1% rise in rates is no different then the property shoting up 20,000 bucks while you sit on the fence and decide whether to buy....
forget about what you think will happen, we are all probley wrong anyway with our best guesses,..... if you want a home to live in then buy it.......
its an easy decision... do you think in 20 years if you caught the last 10% it will amount to a hill of beans difference anyway...
ive been an investor for over 20 years, your not going to out guess things!
while real estate may not escalate anytime soon and may even drop more the fact is mortgage rates can shift on a dime.... on a 200,00 loan a 1% rise in rates is no different then the property shoting up 20,000 bucks while you sit on the fence and decide whether to buy....
If mortgages rise then prices will fall in order to have affordable housing (without irresponsible credit like in this bubble). Fed is now propping up prices by keeping rates low. But it cannot prop them up more because it cannot go less than 0%.
In fact, the best time to buy is when mortgages rates are high and prices low. The price cannot change but a mortgage can always be refinanced.
prices may not fall much further but mortgage rates can flip in a heart beat... we are at very very low rates now. even a point or 2 higher is lower than the norm although it will cost you alot more bucks a month then right now.....
if anyone things they will get a chance to refinance at these rediculiosly low rates in their lifetime they may be very wrong.... with all this gov't debt hitting the bond markets rates can only go up from here as my best guess
what do you all think the chances of refinancing below 5% will be off in the future with trillions of dollars in bonds hitting the markets...?
while mortgages are linked to mortgage back securities the securities almost mirror image the movement of the 30 year bond eventually
its an easy decision... do you think in 20 years if you caught the last 10% it will amount to a hill of beans difference anyway...
No one can have an horizon of 20 years, especially first time buyers. There is always a factor that makes folks move sooner. The average ownership period in US is 7 years.
So advising people to buy house now with highly inflated prices, based on your guess that the market will turn around in 20 years, is irresponsible. These people risk losing money.
if anyone things they will get a chance to refinance at these rediculiosly low rates in their lifetime they may be very wrong.... with all this gov't debt hitting the bond markets rates can only go up from here as my best guess
what do you all think the chances of refinancing below 5% will be off in the future?
You don't get. It's better to buy a house for 100K with 10% mortgage that you can later refinance to 7%, than buy the same house for 200K with a 5% rate.
yep no question its always better to buy lower.... but the question is we are already very very low in rates and the question is if you want a house to live in is it worth seeing if we drop more...
no one knows the answer.... but i know we wanted a 2nd home,,, homes came down to a point where i felt the home was fairly priced and if i wanted a mortage i could get the lowest rates in mortgage history..
done deal we bought it...... we enjoy it, we use it and who cares if it drops. im going to live there full time in 3 years...
i dont look at my home as i would an investment... my investments are just that investments, my home is where i live
I don't think that anyone who has two brain cells would believe an agent telling them at the moment to buy now, lest they be priced out of the market. That happened during the run to the peak, hence why they were sold areas that did not have an underlying value, foolishly believing the hype.
And, I never said that particular areas would not lose value; rather, they tend to plateau. They do not generally lose as much as the prevailing market because of the vulture buyers who come in when rates are lower and properties are reduced. When a correction hits, it is not as severe in the micromarket of higher demand when the right factors are in play. This can be specific areas, specific buildings, and even specific types of apartments, and one must know the lay of the land. Relying on real estate agent puffery to sell the "adjacent" or "similar" areas for the same cushioned level of decline is foolish, since that's not the case.
NYC has a large proportion of renters who can buy, some of whom can do so for cash. It's a question as to whether or not they want to reside in the city for the longer term and the timing as to when to make a purchase that keeps many on the sidelines. Two things to remember when searching for a house is that there is always another house and prices never exclusively move in one direction.
Please come back and report to us when you get that house for 1/2 of what the asking price is now.I hope the interest rate is not 18 % as it was back in the 80's.What makes you think 10% or 7% is how you will you will do your deals.I have never heard such idle speculation in all my life.Or is your crystal ball telling you that the 200,000 house will be 35,000 then.
Good luck with your theories.
How many houses have you gotten for"halfoffpeak" so far ?
This can be specific areas, specific buildings, and even specific types of apartments, and one must know the lay of the land.
contradicts
Quote:
Originally Posted by bmwguydc
Two things to remember when searching for a house is that there is always another house
The first is what the realtors want you to believe: a house is unigue.
The second is what the buyers should realize: For each house there are dozen comparable ones available now or later (unless you are bloomberg )
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