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I have no idea what Newburgh is like but Buffalo's crime is pretty much contained to the bad areas of the city. Its not like the whole city is a war zone. If you live in a good neighborhood (like Parkside) or just about any suburb not named Cheektowaga or Lackawanna, crime isn't a concern.
I don't know about Buffalo being rated in the most dangerous list (not saying it hasn't but I can't remember hearing about it) but I do know that Amherst (Buffalo's largest suburb & a city well over 100K) is consistently ranked as one of the safest places to live & Kenmore has also made similar lists.
Buffalo has a rotten inner city ghetto and also gang turf on the west side. Not much else is "bad". You are not going to find violent crime in the north end of the city or south Buffalo to the extent the other areas ( east and west side have). The city itself ( per "downtown" ) is mostly a 9-5 city. Nights are Chippewa and Elmwood strip. You can break the city down more, but most areas where there are bad crimes, you find drugs. Where there are drugs are gangs. Gangs mean violence. Answer: don't decide to live in a gang area.
Go to the burbs ( some 1st ring have problems ) but beyond that, you will find an area with mostly your average are "crimes" like car break-ins, neighbor disputes, arrests for DWI.... Not exactly violent.
A hotly debated subject indeed! You will find that each person seems to have a slightly different opinion...
The first thing I will point out are the counties that are connected to New York City by the "Metropolitan commuter transportation mobility tax" : New York (Manhattan), Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), Queens, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Nassau, Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Dutchess, and Westchester. These counties all have NYC Commuter Trains with access to Grand Central or Penn Station or Secaucus Junction (->Penn Station).
Another factor supporting this picture....Stewart International Airport, in Orange County (spanning over portions of Montgomery, Hamptonburgh, New Windsor, and Newburgh), is owned and operated by the Port Authority.
Using the above idea, Orange County and any county SOUTH of should absolutely be considered downstate.
Downstate as defined by the New York State Dept of Tourism:
Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam, and Southern Dutchess Counties along with the NYC / LI Counties.
Also, the National Weather Service NYC based in Upton, NY serves the following counties: Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and Putnam along with the NYC / LI Counties. These counties are climatically similar. Dutchess receives its forecasts from the Albany NWS office.
Based on what I've stated, I'd say this a fair approximation of upstate/downstate:
The areas below the line are more culturally connected than those above the line.
That looks right. I never considered Dutchess as being 1/2 and 1/2. Good point about Poughkeepsie.
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