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No dice. Many downscale white voters tend to be "values" voters and Romney appears not to have been all that convincing about his conversion.
Yes and yes.
If they existed they'd have been out to vote against a president they truly despise regardless of their candidate. Has it occurred to you that there just might not be that many of these folks still around? You seem to be under the mistaken impression there's a huge army of right-wing zombies out there just waiting for their sleeper cells to be activated.
If they existed they'd have been out to vote against a president they truly despise regardless of their candidate.
Wrong. People need something or someone to vote for. They don't just go out of their way to vote against something or someone.
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Has it occurred to you that there just might not be that many of these folks still around? You seem to be under the mistaken impression there's a huge army of right-wing zombies out there just waiting for their sleeper cells to be activated.
Yeah, I remember 2004 and the shell-shocked, mouth-agape expressions of leftist activists who couldn't believe there were that many conservative voters, especially in exurbs and outer suburbs. It is true demographics have changed since 2004, but not that much. The major lesson of the 2012 election, just like the 2004 election, is that when the country is evenly split and elections are very close, GOTV and micro-targeting mater and matter a great deal. It seems obvious, but members of both parties seem to have to relearn that periodically.
The OP knows little about Fairfax County - the areas of Chantilly and Centreville that traditionally vote republican are VERY high income areas with many homes going for 1 million+.
A search on a real estate site for "Centreville active" and a price over 1mn yields 18 results, about half of which are in Queen Anne's County.
"Chantilly active" yields 2, both of which appear to be commercial sites.
"McLean active" yields 195 such homes. "Vienna active" yields 84. "Great Falls active" yields 138.
I hardly think the OP warrants your statement "The OP knows little about Fairfax County."
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Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta
Wrong. People need something or someone to vote for. They don't just go out of their way to vote against something or someone.
Yeah, I remember 2004 and the shell-shocked, mouth-agape expressions of leftist activists who couldn't believe there were that many conservative voters, especially in exurbs and outer suburbs. It is true demographics have changed since 2004, but not that much. The major lesson of the 2012 election, just like the 2004 election, is that when the country is evenly split and elections are very close, GOTV and micro-targeting mater and matter a great deal. It seems obvious, but members of both parties seem to have to relearn that periodically.
Whites were 77% of the vote in 2004, 74% in 2008, and 72% in 2012. In a world where non-Cuban Hispanics are starting to break 85-15 for the Ds, this lost 3-4% does matter. (FWIW, 2004 was the only election in a quarter-century in which the Republicans won the popular vote.)
For Republicans to begin winning national elections, they are going to have start regularly exceeding Reagan's share of the White vote, or begin some means of reaching out to non-Whites.
Closer to home:
VA Republicans counted on an electorate like that of 2009/2010/2011 to come out. This did not happen.
McDonnell won in Fairfax County on the "Bob's for Jobs" platform. Instead, we got transvaginal ultrasound.
Cuccinelli is a very polarizing figure, Bolling is not. The Ds will have a harder time telling scary Bolling stories than scary Cuccinelli stories.
McAuliffe is a low-charisma sort of guy. Bolling vs. McAuliffe in an off-year election with off-year electorate? Yeah, Bolling will win.
But with Cuccinelli running, you know full well the Ds will be running around Arlington talking transvaginal ultrasound to the 20something women, running around eastern PWC talking about race/immigration, etc., etc. There'll be national attention and all of Cuccinelli's unsavory to most people statements will be unearthed over and over again.
A search on a real estate site for "Centreville active" and a price over 1mn yields 18 results, about half of which are in Queen Anne's County.
"Chantilly active" yields 2, both of which appear to be commercial sites.
"McLean active" yields 195 such homes. "Vienna active" yields 84. "Great Falls active" yields 138.
Ah, grasshopper, you forgot some of the "Fairfax" addresses near Centreville and Chantilly.
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Whites were 77% of the vote in 2004, 74% in 2008, and 72% in 2012. In a world where non-Cuban Hispanics are starting to break 85-15 for the Ds, this lost 3-4% does matter. (FWIW, 2004 was the only election in a quarter-century in which the Republicans won the popular vote.)
You are preachin' to the choir. As a darkie conservative Republican, I've been all over enlarging the coalition for years. By the way, I believe Romney even lost Cubans this election.
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Cuccinelli is a very polarizing figure, Bolling is not. The Ds will have a harder time telling scary Bolling stories than scary Cuccinelli stories.
Maybe. But R will have a harder time mustering enthusiam for Bolling compared to Cuccinelli. In low turnout elections, GOTV and enthusiam all weigh on Cuccinelli's side. Unlike Romney who lost "values" voters but increased some country club Republicans (but not nearly enough to make up for the former), Cuccinelli has a proven track record of turning out activists. Like I said, I like Cuccinelli's chances in a contest against McAuliffe. Warner might be a different story.
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... running around eastern PWC talking about race/immigration, etc., etc.
One thing you'll note about Cuccinelli is that, unlike some other conservative candidates, one of his slogans is not "anti-illegal immigration" but pro "legal immigration." It will be pretty tough to paint Cuccinelli as a nativist.
Wrong. People need something or someone to vote for. They don't just go out of their way to vote against something or someone.
I like this idea in theory, but in reality I saw exactly that happening this time around--people made a point of voting to prevent someone from becoming POTUS.
The funny thing is, many people I knew, including myself, were initially determined to vote against Obama this election. The republicans had us in their grasp, and then amazingly, they presented a candidate who was even worse! In the end, we became increasingly alarmed by Romney and made a point of voting to vote against him. If the republicans had run with someone like Pawlenty or Huntsman they would have gotten my vote.
It was never a matter of voting for either one, people came out in droves to prevent what they thought would have been the worse choice. So, to get back to the OP, are Fairfax/Loudoun permanently blue? Nah, I think it really depends on the candidate.
I have a hard time thinking that's significant numbers of people who'd eagerly vote for Cuccinelli but stay home for Bolling. I also have a hard time thinking that Cuccinelli wouldn't mobilized at least some parts of the Democratic base, so the R hope of a low-turnout, low-drama election that they win 55-45 isn't going to happen.
Old white folks are already coming out to to vote Republican. The Republican base already votes all the time.
I know people who go out to vote AGAINST candidates. I know for darn sure my husband did just that in this year's Senatorial race. I think he was really meh about the Presidential race, but he was NOT going to allow a certain Senatorial candidate to win. And I wouldn't doubt there were people who voted against candidates of all levels despite no strong feeling for the candidate they cast their vote for.
Now, whether or not that is enough of a groundswell to propel someone to office, that is very hard to say. It definitely depends on the particular race.
I think enough people turned out in IN and MO to vote AGAINST candidates to change those races, though.
I like this idea in theory, but in reality I saw exactly that happening this time around--people made a point of voting to prevent someone from becoming POTUS.
Numbers don't quite bear that out. Sure there were a lot of people voting specifically against someone, but overall, the turnout was quite low (-9 million for Obama from 2008, -2 million for Romney from McCain's 2008 numbers). A lot of dissatisfied people stayed home. Considerable number of downscale white voters and evangelicals who were very unhappy with Obama stayed home instead of voting for Romney.
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So, to get back to the OP, are Fairfax/Loudoun permanently blue? Nah, I think it really depends on the candidate.
That, I agree. I still think that Loudoun is center-right and Fairfax is probably center-right, fast becoming mildly center-left.
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Originally Posted by stpickrell
I have a hard time thinking that's significant numbers of people who'd eagerly vote for Cuccinelli but stay home for Bolling.
And, yet, lots of Rs stayed home instead of voting for Romney. Romney lost 2 MILLION of McCain voters. Let me repeat, voters for McCain!
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I also have a hard time thinking that Cuccinelli wouldn't mobilized at least some parts of the Democratic base, so the R hope of a low-turnout, low-drama election that they win 55-45 isn't going to happen.
Well, we'll see. I did not like Romney's chances against Obama nor Allens against Kaine's, but I like Cuccinelli's chances against McAuliffe.
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Old white folks are already coming out to to vote Republican. The Republican base already votes all the time.
Not true this past election.
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Originally Posted by hilsmom
I know people who go out to vote AGAINST candidates. I know for darn sure my husband did just that in this year's Senatorial race. I think he was really meh about the Presidential race, but he was NOT going to allow a certain Senatorial candidate to win. And I wouldn't doubt there were people who voted against candidates of all levels despite no strong feeling for the candidate they cast their vote for.
Now, whether or not that is enough of a groundswell to propel someone to office, that is very hard to say. It definitely depends on the particular race.
I think enough people turned out in IN and MO to vote AGAINST candidates to change those races, though.
I am not suggesting people never turn out to vote nyet. 2010 was a case where they did. But that's pretty unusual and the candidate (generally an incumbent) had to have done something exceptionally unpopular (individual mandate, massive bailout of highly disparaged financial industry, unemployment over 8%, etc.).
Romney didn't lose because people turned out to vote against him in large numbers. He lost because he failed to present a perception of a likable alternative for a variety of reasons.
Cuccinelli is polarizing, to be sure, but in a low turnout election, I like his chances quite a bit (though likely not the 2009 numbers) esp. against a low charisma, carpetbagger. Unlike Romney, Ken is a much better knife in the dark alley kind of a political fighter.
Cuccinelli is polarizing, to be sure, but in a low turnout election, I like his chances quite a bit (though likely not the 2009 numbers) esp. against a low charisma, carpetbagger. Unlike Romney, Ken is a much better knife in the dark alley kind of a political fighter.
I'm not so sure Cucinelli will make it past the primary. If McAuliffe runs unopposed there will likely be a fair number of Democrats who will cross over to vote for Bolling.
A search on a real estate site for "Centreville active" and a price over 1mn yields 18 results, about half of which are in Queen Anne's County.
"Chantilly active" yields 2, both of which appear to be commercial sites.
What kind of real estate site are you using that shows results from Maryland when you search for houses in Centreville, VA?
I grew up in Centreville in an affluent area that was full of Romney signs. Just drive up Pleasant Valley Road. Check out the houses near Cox Farms. Chantilly has plenty of that but most of it is in the Loudoun County part of Chantilly. Most of the richer areas off Waples Mill Road have either Fairfax or Oakton addresses.
Most of Fairfax will continue to become more "blue" as the area becomes increasingly diverse and the right-wing types move further out to flee the diversity that scares them so much.
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