Is the Ohio decline over? (Columbus, Cleveland: insurance, best schools, universities)

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by taxedtodeath

I am not bashing the state, its my home and I CHOSE to move here. I love the state and want it to thrive. I am just being realistic and saying things are not great and they are not improving as much as it needs or should.

Improving as much as they should be compared to what, exactly? Ohio is clearly doing better than the majority of states in terms of its economic recovery. Showing one graph is hardly supporting the picture that Ohio is not in recovery. Obviously things can always be better, but that view has to be framed by the national recovery in general, and by realistic expectations on how long full recovery will actually take.

Jobs that can support a family confortably are challenged and will be under stress.

Not sure what you mean by this?

Public sector job growth will be heavily constrained by budget and revenue pressures. There may be even public sector job loss as tax revenue flattens and local voters reject levies accross the state. The almost unavoidable reduction in military spending will affect a substantial amount of Ohio jobs. Those affected will not all find employment at Ohio state or in health care.

And that's probably why government-related jobs have been the slowest sector to recover. You're not really saying anything here that people don't already know, or that isn't true for every other state.

There is promise in eastern Ohio if exploitation of shale gas develops. However that will need a rising price of natural gas because the current prices of natural gas do not provide enough profit to large scale investment in fracking. A natural gas price rise will require a robust growing US economy which probably isn't in the cards because there will be short term pressures on growth as we deal with our fiscal problems.

There have already been large-scale investments in the shale area, but I agree the low prices are not necessarily going to help. Supply still far exceeds demand right now, but that was true of oil at one time as well. It's a long-term investment.

Manufacturing will be challenged because our export customers are in recession and China isn't going to buy our products. As the world economy stalls, China will reduce prices to keep their exports going which will strain US manufacturers short term.

Manufacturing isn't the only game in town, though, not anymore. Regardless, present-day manufacturing is all about high-skill labor that requires fewer workers anyway, so it was never going to be like 1960 again. I hope no one was expecting that.

There may be job growth in retail and relatively low wage service jobs but they won't support a family and hours will be limited to avoid the ACA health care coverage mandate.

You seem focused only on the short term. If low-wage PT jobs become the dominant type of new employment right now, that's likely because companies may be reluctant to hire FT in this economy. There is no reason that many do not transition to FT with more hours and wages as things improve. As far as the ACA goes, this is 100% sour grapes on the part of the companies in question who have already come out crying about it. It's douchebaggery at its finest, but it remains to be seen if it's anything more than a few employers.

As far as the election goes you are correct that I am dissappointed. I will be fine however, its the rest of Ohio citizens that will be suffering that I am most upset at.

So far, they certainly are doing better than most of the country. Maybe you should worry more for places like the Sun Belt, which actually is struggling.

Oh. And Happy Thanksgiving.

You too.

[ohioaninsc]

The bigger cities are doing well...Metro Cincinnati is doing the best as over the past year we've added more jobs here than Columbus and Cleveland combined...I'll find it when I get home but one national publication ranked Cincinnati as one of the Top 15 Metro Economies in the nation...Columbus and Cleveland are both adding jobs too...just not at as high of a rate as we'd all like. As a whole, I do fell Ohio is rising, but slowly...of course, we'll always be held back by our crappy winter weather...I miss the Charlotte area winters with no snow and typically sunny days.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by ohioaninsc

The bigger cities are doing well...Metro Cincinnati is doing the best as over the past year we've added more jobs here than Columbus and Cleveland combined...I'll find it when I get home but one national publication ranked Cincinnati as one of the Top 15 Metro Economies in the nation...Columbus and Cleveland are both adding jobs too...just not at as high of a rate as we'd all like. As a whole, I do fell Ohio is rising, but slowly...of course, we'll always be held back by our crappy winter weather...I miss the Charlotte area winters with no snow and typically sunny days.

Not sure where that information is coming from, but it's not accurate. October 2011 to October 2012, Cincinnati gained 28.4K non-farm jobs the last year, Columbus 21.1K and Cleveland 12.4, so no, combined Columbus/Cleveland would be 33.5K.
Also, this all needs some context. Cincinnati also lost the most jobs during the recession, (20K more than Cleveland and 50K more than Columbus). In terms of the total non-farm jobs recovered that were lost during the recession, Cincinnati has gained back 49.4% through October, Akron 57.5% and Columbus 84.3%. All other metros in the state are 47% or below. Cincinnati is havng a good recovery in Ohio and certainly in relation to how things are going nationally, but it still has yet to gain back even half of the jobs it lost during the recession and two other metros are ahead. You could say that the rate of recovery is faster, though.

"Crappy weather" is subjective. I always liked snow and cold. I always liked 4 distinct seasons. Charlotte would be way too hot and miserable in the summer for my tastes.

[unusualfire]

Decline? Ohio has never lost population.

1800 45,365
—
1810 230,760 408.7%
1820 581,434 152.0%
1830 937,903 61.3%
1840 1,519,467 62.0%
1850 1,980,329 30.3%
1860 2,339,511 18.1%
1870 2,665,260 13.9%
1880 3,198,062 20.0%
1890 3,672,329 14.8%
1900 4,157,545 13.2%
1910 4,767,121 14.7%
1920 5,759,394 20.8%
1930 6,646,697 15.4%
1940 6,907,612 3.9%
1950 7,946,627 15.0%
1960 9,706,397 22.1%
1970 10,652,017 9.7%
1980 10,797,630 1.4%
1990 10,847,115 0.5%
2000 11,353,140 4.7%
2010 11,536,504 1.6%

[CinciFan]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

Not sure where that information is coming from, but it's not accurate. October 2011 to October 2012, Cincinnati gained 28.4K non-farm jobs the last year, Columbus 21.1K and Cleveland 12.4, so no, combined Columbus/Cleveland would be 33.5K.
Also, this all needs some context. Cincinnati also lost the most jobs during the recession, (20K more than Cleveland and 50K more than Columbus). In terms of the total non-farm jobs recovered that were lost during the recession, Cincinnati has gained back 49.4% through October, Akron 57.5% and Columbus 84.3%. All other metros in the state are 47% or below. Cincinnati is havng a good recovery in Ohio and certainly in relation to how things are going nationally, but it still has yet to gain back even half of the jobs it lost during the recession and two other metros are ahead. You could say that the rate of recovery is faster, though.

"Crappy weather" is subjective. I always liked snow and cold. I always liked 4 distinct seasons. Charlotte would be way too hot and miserable in the summer for my tastes.

According to this article, Cincinnati has regained 97.4% of its pre-recession jobs.

Cincinnati economy now growing faster than U.S. - Business Courier

[taxedtodeath]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

As far as the ACA goes, this is 100% sour grapes on the part of the companies in question who have already come out crying about it. It's douchebaggery at its finest, but it remains to be seen if it's anything more than a few employers.

Community College Of Allegheny County will cut the hours some instructors to avoid paying for their health insurance coverage under new Affordable Care Act rules.

CCAC Cuts Adjuncts' Hours To Avoid Obamacare Requirements

[grmasterb]

Originally Posted by taxedtodeath

Community College Of Allegheny County will cut the hours some instructors to avoid paying for their health insurance coverage under new Affordable Care Act rules.

CCAC Cuts Adjuncts' Hours To Avoid Obamacare Requirements

The whole point of colleges having adjunct faculty is to avoid providing benefits in the first place.

[hensleya1]

Originally Posted by unusualfire

Decline? Ohio has never lost population.

Hi unusualfire--

In absolute terms of population, you are correct that Ohio has not "declined" in any terms as a whole. But the population has remained stagnant for decades and even this is due to explosive growth around Columbus and between Cincinnati and Dayton. Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Canton, Toledo, and most of Northern Ohio is still struggling bad.

I would more accurately describe it as "stagnation and economic decline" due to the shifting of manufacturing overseas (primarily due to Mexico thanks to NAFTA) and the failure of the workforce to shift and diversify properly, mainly for reasons outside its control.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by hensleya1

Hi unusualfire--

In absolute terms of population, you are correct that Ohio has not "declined" in any terms as a whole. But the population has remained stagnant for decades and even this is due to explosive growth around Columbus and between Cincinnati and Dayton. Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Canton, Toledo, and most of Northern Ohio is still struggling bad.

I would more accurately describe it as "stagnation and economic decline" due to the shifting of manufacturing overseas (primarily due to Mexico thanks to NAFTA) and the failure of the workforce to shift and diversify properly, mainly for reasons outside its control.

Disagree that northern Ohio is "struggling bad." Anyone who has actually lived here knows that things have gotten better.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by hensleya1

Hi unusualfire--

In absolute terms of population, you are correct that Ohio has not "declined" in any terms as a whole. But the population has remained stagnant for decades and even this is due to explosive growth around Columbus and between Cincinnati and Dayton. Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Canton, Toledo, and most of Northern Ohio is still struggling bad.

I would more accurately describe it as "stagnation and economic decline" due to the shifting of manufacturing overseas (primarily due to Mexico thanks to NAFTA) and the failure of the workforce to shift and diversify properly, mainly for reasons outside its control.

The population part may be more or less true, but I think Ohio has struggled in this area mostly because of the economy. Ohio was largely a manufacturing state at one time, and technology and outsourcing really hurt that base economy all over the state. It takes a long time for a place to reinvent itself and for cities to be able to build new economies basically from scratch. From what I'm seeing, I think the state has reached or is reaching the conclusion of that process.

Manufacturing is still important, to be sure, but as an all-consuming industry that rules the future of the state, those days are over. Manufacturing has gotten a lot of attention for helping the state (and it has), but its recovery has been middle-of-the-road at best compared to other state industries. Ohio's economic recovery has come from a variety of sources, not just one or two.