Good people of Oregon. In the 2016 election do you think Oregon will become a Swing State? (Portland: middle-class, attorney)

[Deezus]

Originally Posted by Beenhere4ever

Do swing states require a critical mass of swingers?

Only in the 1970s... Those were the golden years of swinging. I think that's how Carter got elected.

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by Deezus

Considering the City of Portland doesn't even make up 15 percent of the population of Oregon, it's impossible for Portland to "outvote" the rest of Oregon. It helps swing it towards the Democratic side, but the surrounding suburban counties of Portland--including even Clackamas which is more conservative--have trended more towards voting Democratic in recent elections, along with Eugene, Corvallis, and much of the coast.

In fact of the ten most populous counties in Oregon outside of Portland and Multnomah County(Washington, Clackamas, Lane, Marion, Jackson, Deschutes, Linn, Douglas, Yahmhill, and Benton)--which along with Multnomah make up about 79 percent of the total state population--Obama won four counties(Washington, Clackamas, Lane, and Benton), received over 45% of the vote in four counties(Marion, Jackson, Deschutes, and Yamhill), and only lost two of them by a significant amount(Linn and Douglas Counties).

If cattle and antelope could vote, Eastern Oregon's highly Republican counties might make a difference, but in terms of population they're too sparse to really make an impact on the total outcome.

In another thread somewhere, I took the 2012 election results for Oregon counties and removed the counties around Portland, Salem and Eugene - the result would have been for Romney, but just barely (51-49, I think). While there are some very Republican-leaning counties, the rest of Oregon, outside the big cities, is still very mixed, and not as conservative as many people like to think.

[Larry Caldwell]

Originally Posted by Deezus

Considering the City of Portland doesn't even make up 15 percent of the population of Oregon, it's impossible for Portland to "outvote" the rest of Oregon.

When people say Portland, they mean the Portland Metropolitan Area, which is almost half the population of the state.

[Deezus]

Originally Posted by Larry Caldwell

When people say Portland, they mean the Portland Metropolitan Area, which is almost half the population of the state.

If you take away the Portland Metro(counting Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, and Columbia counties--which is about 43 percent of Oregon's population), the vote in Oregon swings slightly to Romney. Oregon becomes a swing state bascially, but it's not an overwhelming landslide in the last election. Even not counting the Portland Metro you have about 49 percent of the state voting for Obama. With candidates like Gary Johnson(Libertarian) and Jill Stein(Pacific Green) each recieving over 1 percent of the vote last election, suddenly a fringe candidate cab shear off enough votes to swing the election to either side. Both parties would be spending more money and campaign time in the state.

Take away Lane County and the Portland Metro, you still have over 45 percent of the state voting for Obama. So even if Salem, Bend, and Medford were the major metros in the state, it's still not an completely conservative state, though it would probably be voting Republican in presidential elections. However, there's not going to be an alternate reality world where Portland is suddenly missing, so I guess all those Oregon voters living in the Portland metro and Eugene are still going to count just as much as the rest of the state...

[PNW-type-gal]

Originally Posted by PNW-type-gal

In another thread somewhere, I took the 2012 election results for Oregon counties and removed the counties around Portland, Salem and Eugene - the result would have been for Romney, but just barely (51-49, I think). While there are some very Republican-leaning counties, the rest of Oregon, outside the big cities, is still very mixed, and not as conservative as many people like to think.

Okay, I found the post, and my memory was a bit off:

This should probably be a separate thread, but let us take a look at this. Using Politico's numbers
Oregon Election Results 2012 - Map, County Results, Live Updates - POLITICO.com

Oregon (all)
Obama: 915,703 - 54.5%
Romney: 718,254 - 42.7%

Remove votes for Multnomah, Clackamas, Washington, Marion, Lane Counties (respectively), which is pretty much the Portland metro area, Salem, Eugene - Oregon's biggest cities.

Obama: (216,222) (94,013) (124,431) (53944) (92,980) 581,590 votes removed (65%)
Romney: (71947) (87331) (86551) (58032) (57258) 308,889 votes removed (35%)


Obama 915703-581590 = 334113 46% (was 54.5%)
Romney 718,254-308889 = 409365 54% (was 42.7%)

so while it reverses the results, it's still very close - indicating the "rest of us" who vote are NOT all Republicans, it's almost even split.

ETA: I only looked at Rep & Dem votes, left off the others.

[jjpop]

Very interesting. So of these counties, Clackamas and Marion might be considered swing counties since the margin between the two candidates was pretty narrow. But the others are solidly Democratic (could probably throw Benton County in there as well).

To answer the OP's question, I don't see Oregon becoming a swing state in 2016 unless the Democratic Party nominates a real dog of a candidate. Even then, it might be difficult for the Republicans to overcome the overwhelming Democratic majority in Multnomah, Washington, and Lane Counties. The numbers in those counties are just too big.

[Deezus]

Originally Posted by jjpop

Very interesting. So of these counties, Clackamas and Marion might be considered swing counties since the margin between the two candidates was pretty narrow. But the others are solidly Democratic (could probably throw Benton County in there as well).

To answer the OP's question, I don't see Oregon becoming a swing state in 2016 unless the Democratic Party nominates a real dog of a candidate. Even then, it might be difficult for the Republicans to overcome the overwhelming Democratic majority in Multnomah, Washington, and Lane Counties. The numbers in those counties are just too big.

The last really close presidential election in Oregon was 2000, when Gore barely beat Bush in the state--the whole state was won by less than 7,000 votes. Some of that was because Nader siphoned off a good number of votes from the Democratic side, though you could say that some of those voters were independents who weren't going to vote for either candidate, but the 5 percent of people who voted for Nader(7 percent in Multnomah County) really made it a neck and neck race. It was actually fairly close to the national result.

Since 2004 the election results have skewed Democratic increasingly in national races--though it was much closer in the 2010 governor race. Clackamas County for example went for Dudley, though him living in Lake Oswego helped that out. I'd say though that any Republican that looks at actually winning Oregon--either at a state or national election--is going to have to make inroads into Washington County and win more of Clackamas County. There's still Republicans along with a good number of independents in both counties--which make up almost close to a quarter of the total population of Oregon. If there was a lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate, you could see a Republican upswing in certain areas. Though what's happening in Oregon is similar to what's happening on a national level in the last election--the younger generation of voters(and minority groups like Hispanics and Asians which have been growing in Oregon, especially in Washington County) were turned off by the Republican status quo, especially in the post-Bush era.

[jjpop]

Originally Posted by Deezus

The last really close presidential election in Oregon was 2000, when Gore barely beat Bush in the state--the whole state was won by less than 7,000 votes. Some of that was because Nader siphoned off a good number of votes from the Democratic side, though you could say that some of those voters were independents who weren't going to vote for either candidate, but the 5 percent of people who voted for Nader(7 percent in Multnomah County) really made it a neck and neck race. It was actually fairly close to the national result.

Since 2004 the election results have skewed Democratic increasingly in national races--though it was much closer in the 2010 governor race. Clackamas County for example went for Dudley, though him living in Lake Oswego helped that out. I'd say though that any Republican that looks at actually winning Oregon--either at a state or national election--is going to have to make inroads into Washington County and win more of Clackamas County. There's still Republicans along with a good number of independents in both counties--which make up almost close to a quarter of the total population of Oregon. If there was a lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic candidate, you could see a Republican upswing in certain areas. Though what's happening in Oregon is similar to what's happening on a national level in the last election--the younger generation of voters(and minority groups like Hispanics and Asians which have been growing in Oregon espcially in Washington County) were turned off by the Republican status quo, especially in the post-Bush era.

Great analysis.

I think it would have to be a perfect storm of a really weak and unlikeable Democratic presidential candidate squaring off against a likeable moderate Republican (Jon Huntsman?) for the Republican to win in Oregon. I would attribute that to what you call the Republican status quo, which I think still resonates with Oregonians (and Ohioans, Virginians, and Floridians apparently!)

[Montguy]

Oregon, much like Washington, hasn't swung red in a presidential election since 1984. True, Dubya only lost Oregon by the tiniest of margins in 2000, but I would be surprised to see Oregon sporting red on an election map in 2016.

If it's true that a moderate (or libertarian?) Republican could win Oregon in the next presidential election, then the Republican leadership must undergo some significant changes that I frankly can't see happening at this point.

[Montguy]

Originally Posted by jjpop

Great analysis.

I think it would have to be a perfect storm of a really weak and unlikeable Democratic presidential candidate squaring off against a likeable moderate Republican (Jon Huntsman?) for the Republican to win in Oregon. I would attribute that to what you call the Republican status quo, which I think still resonates with Oregonians (and Ohioans, Virginians, and Floridians apparently!)

I don't know--Oregon went to Dukakis in 1988.