Good people of Oregon. In the 2016 election do you think Oregon will become a Swing State? (Portland: 2015, moving)

[downnice]

Here is my take. In 2016 there will be a lot new swing states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia and possibly Oregon.

Thoughts?

[Steve Pickering]

Lets talk about it again in 2015. You are assuming Portland will get hit with a meteor.

[downnice]

I understand Portland will stay blue but the rest of the state?

[Steve Pickering]

Oregon has always been conservitive. Eugene and Portland with the least land area always drag us down.

[downnice]

Oregon Election Results

I was kind of surprised Lincoln went Blue but anyways I think Lincoln, Columbia and Clatsop will flip and that will making it even closer. Tillamook will be the decider.

[oregonwoodsmoke]

Oregon is conservative, but we get outvoted by Portland. Unless we can con Washington state into moving the border a bit south and adopting Portland, nothing is going to change.

[Terryj]

Out of 36 counties in Oregon, 10 voted Democrat and 26 voted Republican, the 10 counties that went blue were all in the Northwestern part of Oregon.

[pdxMIKEpdx]

It's always an education to drive out of the Willamette Valley during election time and watch the election signs change from blue to red.

[Deezus]

Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke

Oregon is conservative, but we get outvoted by Portland. Unless we can con Washington state into moving the border a bit south and adopting Portland, nothing is going to change.

Considering the City of Portland doesn't even make up 15 percent of the population of Oregon, it's impossible for Portland to "outvote" the rest of Oregon. It helps swing it towards the Democratic side, but the surrounding suburban counties of Portland--including even Clackamas which is more conservative--have trended more towards voting Democratic in recent elections, along with Eugene, Corvallis, and much of the coast.

In fact of the ten most populous counties in Oregon outside of Portland and Multnomah County(Washington, Clackamas, Lane, Marion, Jackson, Deschutes, Linn, Douglas, Yahmhill, and Benton)--which along with Multnomah make up about 79 percent of the total state population--Obama won four counties(Washington, Clackamas, Lane, and Benton), received over 45% of the vote in four counties(Marion, Jackson, Deschutes, and Yamhill), and only lost two of them by a significant amount(Linn and Douglas Counties).

If cattle and antelope could vote, Eastern Oregon's highly Republican counties might make a difference, but in terms of population they're too sparse to really make an impact on the total outcome.

[Beenhere4ever]

Do swing states require a critical mass of swingers?