Is Oregon becoming “Oldegon”? (Portland, Salem: how much, house, unemployed)

[green_mariner]

I think what might keep Oregon from becoming "Oldegon" are young people moving to Oregon. Elderly people are moving to places like Arizona and Florida. Oregon isn't at the top of the list.

[Metlakatla]

Very doubtful that the core reason behind Oregon's declining birth rate is as simple as "people prefer pets!"

[Metlakatla]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

As someone who deals with helping people move in and out of the state here is what I see.

I agree with TD that younger professionals are moving away who grew up here. I think that is because we really don't have the same job opportunities that Seattle or Denver have for that group of people. I know this is true for both of my kids coming out of college even though they would both like to live in Oregon.

Many of the clients I have had in the younger age group don't want kids so they are here for lifestyle. I have a lot of these clients, but they aren't blue-collar. They are professionals, some of which have remote work options. So we are gaining some and losing some.

I also see a group coming back here as empty nesters. We are getting a lot of empty nesters moving here for lifestyle and for climate reasons. Some grew up in Oregon and want to come home and others are transplants from other parts of the country.

Millenials and Gen Z in general are getting married less and a higher percentage plan on being childless. We are below the norm, but this is a trend everywhere.

This makes sense. Texasdiver and I have very similar family demographics, and the same thing has happened in my family — the cousins I grew up with who went on to pursue professional careers have mostly ended up in the Seattle area, except for one in San Diego who's a literal rocket scientist. I have homes in both Alaska and Oregon, but since the pandemic, I've been spending more time in Oregon.

I don't see a shrinking population as necessarily a bad thing.

[zerp]

More people are realizing that Oregon is a terrible place to raise a family.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by zerp

More people are realizing that Oregon is a terrible place to raise a family.

On the other hand, Oregon attracts many who aren't keen on building families, at least these days.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

As someone who deals with helping people move in and out of the state here is what I see.

I agree with TD that younger professionals are moving away who grew up here. I think that is because we really don't have the same job opportunities that Seattle or Denver have for that group of people. I know this is true for both of my kids coming out of college even though they would both like to live in Oregon.

Many of the clients I have had in the younger age group don't want kids so they are here for lifestyle. I have a lot of these clients, but they aren't blue-collar. They are professionals, some of which have remote work options. So we are gaining some and losing some.

I also see a group coming back here as empty nesters. We are getting a lot of empty nesters moving here for lifestyle and for climate reasons. Some grew up in Oregon and want to come home and others are transplants from other parts of the country.

Millenials and Gen Z in general are getting married less and a higher percentage plan on being childless. We are below the norm, but this is a trend everywhere.

People do go where the opportunities are. I moved from the Atlanta area to Huntsville because of a job. For years I considered moving to Oregon.

I don't have kids and I'm in my 30s (age 37). I can get into Oregon's outdoor lifestyle as I do a decent share of hiking. Traditionally, I'm a white collar guy.

One thing I've noticed is that blue collar individuals are having more kids than white collar individual.

I'm living proof of the last paragraph. I'm 37, never married, no children. I'm also Black, and Black American millennials are even less likely to get married these days.

[green_mariner]

Originally Posted by Metlakatla

Very doubtful that the core reason behind Oregon's declining birth rate is as simple as "people prefer pets!"

My theory:It's expensive to have kids, especially in places like Portland. There are fewer school children in Portland today than in 1920, despite Portland's population being much bigger.

[ccjarider]

Originally Posted by green_mariner

My theory:It's expensive to have kids, especially in places like Portland. There are fewer school children in Portland today than in 1920, despite Portland's population being much bigger.

Wouldn't it be nice to live in a state that actually acted in the interests of families/taxpayers to materially impact and improve their lives?

Instead we live in a state that:
1. spends tax $ to kill children,
2. Legalizes drugs that jeopardize children and young adults,
3. Implements non value Over regulation/taxation that increases costs for families.
4. Allows more crime/vandalism and lower QOL by encouraging hobos/drug addled losers and criminals to live on the streets of the states largest city.

All if these things are easy to change if the voting population were to wake up.

[oregonwoodsmoke]

Originally Posted by ChessieMom

I'd take a kid over a pet any day of the week. Pets are a massive "bother" in my opinion.

Pets are a lot of work, but they are nothing compared to the trouble and expense of raising a child. At least if a dog gets on your nerves, you can throw it out into the backyard and leave it there for the rest of the day. You can leave the dog home alone while you go out to party. You don't have to teach the dog to read, or go to it's teacher parent conferences, or pay for its little league or for its college.

But yes, pets are work and responsibility and no one should have a pet unless they are wanting to put the time and effort in. I feel the same way about kids. If you don't want to do the work or pay the expense, don't have kids.

[blisterpeanuts]

The TFR (total fertility rate) by state has been trending down for years almost everywhere.

Oregon is 5th lowest TFR, side by side with Massachusetts, Vermont, Delaware, and a couple of other smaller, highly educated and liberal states.

As one might expect, Utah is near the top, along with many other "red" states.

My understanding is that Oregon has for decades attracted an artsy, hipster type of community from all over the country particularly to Portland. This has pushed their previously moderate-liberal politics farther to the left. For whatever reason, left wing policies tend to be child-unfriendly.

Massachusetts is down in the fertility doldrums as well, despite the hundreds of thousands of young people attracted to the state's colleges and universities. There is a net outflow of people from year to year, and it, along with California & New York, is considered one of the most expensive states for families.

I wonder if the more conservative rural districts of Oregon have a higher TFR. I haven't seen TFR broken down by district but maybe that data exist somewhere.