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Census estimate in 2010 was 519,446 and in 2018 it's 543,557. It'd be a significant jump to 600,000 even by 2028.
The Sears in Park City Center will be converted to a Round 1 entertainment center. I'm surprised macy's didn't pursue space in the mall though, with it being an A mall with Apple Store and the like.
Lancaster has a strong mall and two outlet factory malls. (maybe macy's doesn't want to compete with the outlets) With Dutch Wonderland and other attractions, Lancaster County has a tourist appeal, more so than other counties in Central PA or even the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton region. It also benefits that Lancaster is accessible via Amtrak on the Keystone Corridor, providing access to Philly and NYC, while Baltimore/DC is drive-able at least. Both PHL and BWI are within 90 minutes of drive which isn't that bad. (Better than Harrisburg's distance to them even though MDT is the local airport).
The claim of 600K caught my eye also. turns out that we only grew by about 3500 in the last year, and there was a very slight net loss, when viewing "in and out" migration. A significant number of new babies, and about 1700 immigrants from other countries made up ALL of the 3500 figure. Roughly a gain of 9-10 people a day, compared to Florida, where using the same metrics, a total of 900 people a DAY are moving in. The city itself is a huge success story and tourism continues to grow.
When it comes to the two outlet malls, it's interesting to watch. Once Tanger opened, it became the place where all the "cool stores" gravitated to, some of which fled the Rockvale Outlets, down the street. Rockvale was struggling for years, went into bankruptcy, and now has new owners and claims of major revisions and renovations coming. So far, the makeover has been tepid, and many, many storefronts are still empty. The place certainly doesn't look blighted or undesirable. It's well maintained and getting facade updates and some new construction. The biggest battle seems to be that it's caught in the never ending shrinkage of retail stores, nationwide.
Tourism is still roaring along. This year looks like it will be a total of nearly nine million visitors and 2.25 Billion dollars vacuumed out of their wallets. In comparison to central PA and W-Barre/Scranton, looking at the state's numbers, it appears that both regions do roughly 25% of the tourist volume that the Lancaster area does.
Census estimate in 2010 was 519,446 and in 2018 it's 543,557. It'd be a significant jump to 600,000 even by 2028.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wharton
The claim of 600K caught my eye also. turns out that we only grew by about 3500 in the last year, and there was a very slight net loss, when viewing "in and out" migration. A significant number of new babies, and about 1700 immigrants from other countries made up ALL of the 3500 figure. Roughly a gain of 9-10 people a day, compared to Florida, where using the same metrics, a total of 900 people a DAY are moving in. The city itself is a huge success story and tourism continues to grow.
Sorry for being overly-optimistic. I was presuming growth would be accelerating---not plateauing. Let's say ~565,000 then. That's still significant growth when you consider just how much of PA is sharting the bed in terms of population. I mean look at Pittsburgh. It receives nothing but the loudest of quality-of-life accolades, yet its population is still in decline.
Sorry for being overly-optimistic. I was presuming growth would be accelerating---not plateauing. Let's say ~565,000 then. That's still significant growth when you consider just how much of PA is sharting the bed in terms of population. I mean look at Pittsburgh. It receives nothing but the loudest of quality-of-life accolades, yet its population is still in decline.
No reason to be sorry about your well received optimism, especially when it comes to your vast knowledge and appreciation for the state, overall. From what I read in the local paper, and from talking to those attempting to find additional employees for their businesses, the reason we don't see a 600K pop. in the medium term is simply the lack of housing, not affordable housing, not any specific type of housing, just places to put more people, period.
This county is a giant conundrum. There has been forty years of unusually disciplined control of growth. Every new, significant project is met with aggressive push back, even IF the entire proposal is properly chosen and located in the master plan for how the county has decided that they want to grow. If somebody wants to violate a square foot of preserved farmland, or do something that's not in keeping with what the local's vision for the future is, the pitchforks come out, and the meeting halls are filled and out the door, with very loud and mad locals. IMHO, if all of this restriction went away tomorrow, twenty years from now we would be looking at 750K people, and it would be just another overcrowded suburb of Philly, a Chester county extension. The problem with that idea, is that it would kill the golden goose. There is no way that the Amish culture would continue to thrive here, or that nine million visitors a year would spend billions here, if the farms were overrun, and the overall attractiveness of the area was lost to endless communities of plastic clad trophy homes.
Given the tremendous industriousness of the area, the amount of manufacturing, retail, tourism, service industry, heath care, etc...There is a shortage of workers, and a shortage of places for them and their families to relocate to. I really can't see a whole lot of statistical new growth in the future, from a net in-migration standpoint. The Amish population doubles roughly every two decades, which translates to an additional 30K+ by 2040. Immigration from other countries is a questionable source, since it's turned into a political mess. It's going to be a matter of births VS Deaths, and how many immigrants are allowed to enter the US, for the foreseeable future. As you noted, it could be a lot worse, and we could be slowly withering, like some counties.
Seriously, it is one of PA’s top spots for economic growth, but not exactly “hip.”
Nah man. Midtown Gettysburg is the hippest place in PA these days. The millenials are getting into battle reenacting. Lots of Civil War-Era micro breweries in town too.
This county is a giant conundrum. There has been forty years of unusually disciplined control of growth. Every new, significant project is met with aggressive push back, even IF the entire proposal is properly chosen and located in the master plan for how the county has decided that they want to grow. If somebody wants to violate a square foot of preserved farmland, or do something that's not in keeping with what the local's vision for the future is, the pitchforks come out, and the meeting halls are filled and out the door, with very loud and mad locals. IMHO, if all of this restriction went away tomorrow, twenty years from now we would be looking at 750K people, and it would be just another overcrowded suburb of Philly, a Chester county extension. The problem with that idea, is that it would kill the golden goose. There is no way that the Amish culture would continue to thrive here, or that nine million visitors a year would spend billions here, if the farms were overrun, and the overall attractiveness of the area was lost to endless communities of plastic clad trophy homes.
Given the tremendous industriousness of the area, the amount of manufacturing, retail, tourism, service industry, heath care, etc...There is a shortage of workers, and a shortage of places for them and their families to relocate to. I really can't see a whole lot of statistical new growth in the future, from a net in-migration standpoint. The Amish population doubles roughly every two decades, which translates to an additional 30K+ by 2040. Immigration from other countries is a questionable source, since it's turned into a political mess. It's going to be a matter of births VS Deaths, and how many immigrants are allowed to enter the US, for the foreseeable future. As you noted, it could be a lot worse, and we could be slowly withering, like some counties.
I grew up in Etown and live in Pgh now.
I prefer Lancaster County. In Lancaster County, growth is controlled and managed. As a result, when growth takes root - it holds firm. There have been constant slow but steady improvements in that area over the last 30 years. Its still affordable and still has a high quality of life. Its also very egalitarian in that its VERY solidly middle-class - there are not areas of massive economic deprivation, nor are there areas of massive concentrated wealth. Well, a place like Manheim Township may be a bit of an exception - but for the most part its very solidly middle-class, without a lot of wealth or a lot of poverty.
Contrast that with Allegheny County and the City of Pittsburgh.
There are areas of MASSIVE income disparities both within this County (the entire Mon Valley region, compared to places like Fox Chapel and Sewickley) and within this City (Homewood vs Point Breeze, the Strip District vs the Hill District).
Pgh always has a 'trendy' neighborhood - but it feels like a shell game. 10 years ago, the South Side was the buzzing hotspot for nightlife. Now, there are plenty of vacant storefronts there as a new neighborhood (Lawrenceville) is the trendy nightlife hotspot.
There is growth among neighborhoods in Pgh, but that growth usually comes at the expense of another neighborhood. There's no over-all, long-term growth.
Compare that to Lancaster County, where there are not booms - but where there is slow and steady growth. Its geographic examples of the differences between liberal (massive intervention, do things NOW NOW NOW) politics and conservative (slow and steady, manage change) politics
Nah man. Midtown Gettysburg is the hippest place in PA these days. The millenials are getting into battle reenacting. Lots of Civil War-Era micro breweries in town too.
Actually, the Millennials want to tear down all the statues and monuments in the city and on the battlefield, because everything is racist.
I grew up in Etown and live in Pgh now.
I prefer Lancaster County. In Lancaster County, growth is controlled and managed. As a result, when growth takes root - it holds firm. There have been constant slow but steady improvements in that area over the last 30 years. Its still affordable and still has a high quality of life. Its also very egalitarian in that its VERY solidly middle-class - there are not areas of massive economic deprivation, nor are there areas of massive concentrated wealth. Well, a place like Manheim Township may be a bit of an exception - but for the most part its very solidly middle-class, without a lot of wealth or a lot of poverty.
Contrast that with Allegheny County and the City of Pittsburgh.
There are areas of MASSIVE income disparities both within this County (the entire Mon Valley region, compared to places like Fox Chapel and Sewickley) and within this City (Homewood vs Point Breeze, the Strip District vs the Hill District).
Pgh always has a 'trendy' neighborhood - but it feels like a shell game. 10 years ago, the South Side was the buzzing hotspot for nightlife. Now, there are plenty of vacant storefronts there as a new neighborhood (Lawrenceville) is the trendy nightlife hotspot.
There is growth among neighborhoods in Pgh, but that growth usually comes at the expense of another neighborhood. There's no over-all, long-term growth.
Compare that to Lancaster County, where there are not booms - but where there is slow and steady growth. Its geographic examples of the differences between liberal (massive intervention, do things NOW NOW NOW) politics and conservative (slow and steady, manage change) politics
I disagree in terms of progressive land-use planning. Lancaster County is seen as progressive.
Maybe we should not think in terms of the party on this issue. Because it certainly is not the case.
Working in the field, I have learned Land Use Planning is most definitely something both parties are not well versed in, and not well understood.
Managed growth is considered a more liberal cause. Because you are in fact restricting land use.
But who knew. That is in fact. Better for everyone. But it requires the right leaders and vision.
City Planning is a very specialized program and most of America has zero idea when you tell them you work in Land Use Planning. What that even means. Even though the terms are quite easy to understand.
But the reality it, it is more complex and just developing mindlessly is not ideal (as more conservative people typically favor).
Somehow Lancaster has retained its conservatism with stronger Land Use Planning guards. Because that is not the case in most of America or even Central Pennsylvania.
Cumberland County is an absolute mess because it is not planning any development.
The biggest difference is a river divides the Harrisburg metro and it is very much a real division.
Where Lancaster County is very much a cohesion, and for the very most part feels like an extension of Chester County.
I think the growth in Lancaster County is positive. The biggest challenge will be balancing the growth of preserving open space and opening economic development. The Lancaster County Planning Commission is perhaps the 3rd most progressive in Pennsylvania after only Philadelphia and Pittsburgh in terms of its density goals and open space preservation policies.
LOL that the hippest city in PA is filled with Amish. Poor Philadelphia.
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