Official Philadelphia Metro Crime Thread (Penn: neighborhoods, most dangerous, legal)

[frankgn87]

rotodome made a statement that you had a better chance to die in an auto accident then to be murdered in Philly. The stats in 2010 are as follows..

People killed in auto accidents in the city- 84

people murdered in the city- 306 (2011 was 324)

so to sum it up. You are approximately 4 times as likely to be murdered in Philly then to die in an auto accident..

Interesting..

Mod elaboration: Posts about a single crime need to contain a sentence or two about why this crime is unique to our area or at least something about it. From that point we could actually have a discussion about these crimes.

Mod addition - This site has up to date crime information: http://www.spotcrime.com/pa/philadelphia

[FamousBlueRaincoat]

Originally Posted by frankgn87

rotodome made a statement that you had a better chance to die in an auto accident then to be murdered in Philly. The stats in 2010 are as follows..

People killed in auto accidents in the city- 84

people murdered in the city- 306 (2011 was 324)

so to sum it up. You are approximately 4 times as likely to be murdered in Philly then to die in an auto accident..

Interesting..

It's appropriate to provide sources for facts which have been researched.

But assuming the numbers are correct, you're still missing a point of the argument I imagine, which assumes that a person is on the level (i.e., not in the drugs, prostitution, gang, or theft industries).

In other words, you'd have to find the number of random murders in the city.

As a full-time pedestrian and public transit user in this city, cars and their mentally enfeebled drivers are one of my top concerns. Being murdered, not really on the list.

[Phillyboy9088]

I disagree. It depends on what circles you roam. Some of the murders are domestic related, but most are either drug related or cases of one guy "dissing" another one. If your not hanging out in say some sections of North / West philly, I'd say your chances of getting killed are pretty low. Random killing of truly innocent people doesn't happen that often. With that being said, I'd say most have a better chance of dying in an auto accident.

[pman]

yeah, I read somewhere that the murder rate for whites if well below 10 per 100k. the drug trade is obviously the single biggest factor, even in the so called argument cases, these people are carrying guns for "work" which is selling drugs. let's face it, you can't sue a guy for skimming coke

[frankgn87]

Originally Posted by FamousBlueRaincoat

It's appropriate to provide sources for facts which have been researched.

But assuming the numbers are correct, you're still missing a point of the argument I imagine, which assumes that a person is on the level (i.e., not in the drugs, prostitution, gang, or theft industries).

In other words, you'd have to find the number of random murders in the city.

As a full-time pedestrian and public transit user in this city, cars and their mentally enfeebled drivers are one of my top concerns. Being murdered, not really on the list.

well if you only want to include 'ramdom' murders you would have have to exclude the car accident deaths that are caused by drinking, drugs and speeding.. right? You are alluding that you are more likely murdered if you partake in dangerous activities. Well that would have to be the same in auto deaths too.. Exclude the dangerous acts in that too.

[frankgn87]

Originally Posted by Phillyboy9088

I disagree. It depends on what circles you roam. Some of the murders are domestic related, but most are either drug related or cases of one guy "dissing" another one. If your not hanging out in say some sections of North / West philly, I'd say your chances of getting killed are pretty low. Random killing of truly innocent people doesn't happen that often. With that being said, I'd say most have a better chance of dying in an auto accident.

Like I said before I lost 2 employees in Philly by murder and both weren't engaged in any sort of gang, drugs 'dissing others' etc. One was shot for his $$ he took out of an atm moments before and the other was caught in a crossfire of a gunfight.

[FamousBlueRaincoat]

Originally Posted by frankgn87

well if you only want to include 'ramdom' murders you would have have to exclude the car accident deaths that are caused by drinking, drugs and speeding.. right? You are alluding that you are more likely murdered if you partake in dangerous activities. Well that would have to be the same in auto deaths too.. Exclude the dangerous acts in that too.

Yeah, that would be alright - assuming that the person who died was the person who was drunk, on drugs,speeding, texting, etc.. In other words, not an innocent person in the crossfire.

[rotodome]

OK, you got me Frank! Good one! I yield!

You know what is (actually not very) interesting? I didn't really know this, but Google just told me that the PA traffic fatality rate is 1 in 8158, which means that a city the size of Philadelphia should have about 187 traffic fatalities. If there were only 84 total, I guess that must mean that Philadelphians are extremely good drivers! I never would have guessed.

It also says that the traffic accident injury rate is 1 in 129, so that means out of 1.5 million, there should be around 11,000 injuries from traffic accidents.
So from this point forward, I promise I will heretofore change the language of my fast and loose statements to "You are over 30x more likely to be seriously injured in a traffic accident than to be murdered on the streets of Philadelphia, even if you are a gang banger".

And since personal anecdotes apparently hold so much water around here, I'll relay my own personal anecdote and say that I have never known anyone who was murdered in Philadelphia in my entire life, but my friend's father was killed in a car accident.
(edit) Oh, and my 2nd cousin died in a motorcycle crash. (edit again) But that one actually happened in suburban NJ.

[phillies2011]

Originally Posted by rotodome

You know what is (actually not very) interesting? I didn't really know this, but Google just told me that the PA traffic fatality rate is 1 in 8158, which means that a city the size of Philadelphia should have about 187 traffic fatalities. If there were only 84 total, I guess that must mean that Philadelphians are extremely good drivers! I never would have guessed.

I think that just has more to do with the roadways and less to do with the quality of the driver.

I've heard the most dangerous roadways are non divided highways. Roads where drivers exceed 40mph, but there are intersections and pedestrians and no median etc. Through Pennsylvania these types of roadways are very common... in philly though? Honestly only Kelly drive comes to mind, although I'm not much of a driver. The point is on the VERY VAST majority of roadways it is illegal to even a approach a speed that would likely end it death if an accident occurred.

So automobile death are basically restricted to the few roads like Kelly drive that exist, the highways... and idiots who decide to go twice the legal limit on the regular city streets.

I don't think Philly has a lower rate than the rest of the state because by all visual accounts... we def do not haha.

[phillies2011]

Originally Posted by frankgn87

rotodome made a statement that you had a better chance to die in an auto accident then to be murdered in Philly. The stats in 2010 are as follows..

People killed in auto accidents in the city- 84

people murdered in the city- 306 (2011 was 324)

so to sum it up. You are approximately 4 times as likely to be murdered in Philly then to die in an auto accident..

Interesting..

Except one thing. Many people in this city do not drive.

in fact only 64% of the people in Philadelphia drive. Now pedestrians struck by cars also are included in auto death statistics. But the fact is the more miles you drive, the more likely you are to die in an auto crash. The fact that so much of the population is driving ZERO miles makes a 1 to 1 comparison between the two rates illogical.

The other problem with this comparison is that while accidental auto deaths are likely spread fairly evenly throughout the city (with perhaps a few more at dangerous road locations), the murders in this city are VERY concentrated. By taking out just a few square miles of Philadelphia you can severely cut the murder rate in Philadelphia.

Why does this matter? Well because a sensible person can just say, "I will never walk around Point Breeze." It's easy for the most part to avoid being murdered. By avoiding terrible neighborhoods and staying away from drugs and putting your ego in check a sensible person can nearly wipe away their chance of being murdered.

You can also lower your chances of being killed in an auto accident as well. Never drive drunk, be a good driver, pay attention. All of these things will lower your chances of being killed by a car.

I can't say for sure which a Philadelphia should fear more, being murdered or dying in a car accident, but I know this much; If you stay out of bad neighborhoods, be respectful, and don't involve yourself with crime you have a very small chance of being murdered.

By the same token if you drive safe, don't drive drunk, and pay attention you have a very small chance of dying in an auto accident.