Neighborhoods That Go Downhill (Avondale, Apache Junction: for sale, rentals, HOA)

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by silverbear

I agree that it's unfortunate when it happens, but it doesn't always happen and doesn't have to happen as frequently as it does. The Central Phoenix historic neighborhoods were, for the most part, blighted 20 years ago. Now, they're in much better shape and perceived as desirable. Now the enthusiasm for turning around neglected areas is spreading as far north as Sunnyslope.

Still, this thread is depressing because it shows how many people believe it's okay to have disposable neighborhoods and to continue to move farther and farther out in search of the next utopia. That's been easy to do in Phoenix because of cheap and abundant land, but if gas prices go over $5 per gallon in the next few years and never come back down (a likely scenario in my opinion), then there may be no choice but for some of those facing long commutes to look inward again.

I'm also disappointed by the negative opinions of affordable housing voiced in this thread. Stable neighborhoods are often ones that support varied populations of differing income levels.

Guilty as charged! I have been moving ever-outward for decades sometimes driven by too many new traffic lights or a flash of graffitti in the local park. The hordes and the problems eventually catch up with you though, so it's a losing game basically. Keeps the realtors and developers rich, I guess.

[artvandelay]

In Chicago, where they're at capacity, they are always looking for the next neighborhood to "rehab" if it has good proximity to the city core, freeways, and public transit. They raise taxes in an effort to force people to leave, then after gentrification, the rehabbed neighborhoods are doubled or tripled in price.

In Phoenix, with the exception of Central Phoenix, the lack of a city core and public transit means "any land will do". It actually seems like areas with the best access are much worse than the inaccessible areas.

[vegaspilgrim]

Neighborhoods in which developers try to maximize the square footage of the house on the smallest piece of land possible, homes built with cheap building materials and poor construction, neighborhoods adjacent to abandoned shopping centers and big box stores (Mesa, are you listening?) will go downhill.

I agree with silverbear, it is almost mind boggling how cheap and fast subdivisions in Phoenix go up. "Disposable neighborhoods" is the right term. If anybody thinks the vicious cycle of moving further and further out, building an entire city where the main industry is building homes, is going to go on forever, they need to splash some cold water on their face and take a look at reality. IMO, every new home that is built on the fringes makes this place a worse place place to live, not a better place.

[ITChick]

This thread is really kind of scary. To think that a turnover of a neighborhood in the Phoenix area happens so quickly must be worrysome. I guess it can happen in any large city.

I wonder what ever happened to that new (at the time) subdivision I almost invested in with a friend many years ago. It was in the Phoenix area (the northern part away from Downtown) near a bunch of Horse Farms, that consisted of two and three bedroom properties. I have no clue exactly where though anymore. It was really nice looking and quiet (because of all the farms surrounding it) and it would be sad to find out that the neighborhood has gone downhill since then.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by silverbear

I agree that it's unfortunate when it happens, but it doesn't always happen and doesn't have to happen as frequently as it does. The Central Phoenix historic neighborhoods were, for the most part, blighted 20 years ago. Now, they're in much better shape and perceived as desirable. Now the enthusiasm for turning around neglected areas is spreading as far north as Sunnyslope.

Still, this thread is depressing because it shows how many people believe it's okay to have disposable neighborhoods and to continue to move farther and farther out in search of the next utopia. That's been easy to do in Phoenix because of cheap and abundant land, but if gas prices go over $5 per gallon in the next few years and never come back down (a likely scenario in my opinion), then there may be no choice but for some of those facing long commutes to look inward again.

I'm also disappointed by the negative opinions of affordable housing voiced in this thread. Stable neighborhoods are often ones that support varied populations of differing income levels.

As silverbear stated.

I lived near 12th St/Indian School from 1997-99 and that enclave was on its way up.

[joninaz]

Originally Posted by ITChick

This thread is really kind of scary. To think that a turnover of a neighborhood in the Phoenix area happens so quickly must be worrysome. I guess it can happen in any large city.

I wonder what ever happened to that new (at the time) subdivision I almost invested in with a friend many years ago. It was in the Phoenix area (the northern part away from Downtown) near a bunch of Horse Farms, that consisted of two and three bedroom properties. I have no clue exactly where though anymore. It was really nice looking and quiet (because of all the farms surrounding it) and it would be sad to find out that the neighborhood has gone downhill since then.

Sometimes life is a bet. Sometimes you have to gamble.

And timing helps.

Lower downtown Denver was a dump and is now hip. Same with Long Beach, West Hollywood, etc. I see the same happening in PHX and a few other parts of town.

[steve22]

Originally Posted by silverbear

Still, this thread is depressing because it shows how many people believe it's okay to have disposable neighborhoods and to continue to move farther and farther out in search of the next utopia. That's been easy to do in Phoenix because of cheap and abundant land, but if gas prices go over $5 per gallon in the next few years and never come back down (a likely scenario in my opinion), then there may be no choice but for some of those facing long commutes to look inward again.

This is exactly the reason why I think you'll see many more centralized, historically blighted neighborhoods in South and West Phoenix start to gentrify in future years. As I've mentioned before, I just don't see the exurban commuter car-centric community model, of which metro Phoenix is the prototype, as having much of a future in a world of $5 a gallon gas, increased utility costs, decreased disposable incomes and gridlocked freeways. At some point, the upsides of living closer to the city's core will trump the expense and inconvenience of suburban life for middle-class families. When that happens, you'll see the value of homes in central Phoenix neighborhoods zoom upward.

[Patrick754]

Interesting article in the Republic today:

Subprime mortgages concentrated on Valley's fringes (broken link)

In addition to traffic and gas costs, I think the foreclosure activity is also going to make the fringe areas unattractive for some period of time. Who wants to live in an area of vacant homes and unfinished developments left behind by bankrupt builders ?

[vegaspilgrim]

Originally Posted by steve22

This is exactly the reason why I think you'll see many more centralized, historically blighted neighborhoods in South and West Phoenix start to gentrify in future years. As I've mentioned before, I just don't see the exurban commuter car-centric community model, of which metro Phoenix is the prototype, as having much of a future in a world of $5 a gallon gas, increased utility costs, decreased disposable incomes and gridlocked freeways. At some point, the upsides of living closer to the city's core will trump the expense and inconvenience of suburban life for middle-class families. When that happens, you'll see the value of homes in central Phoenix neighborhoods zoom upward.

The problem is Phoenix doesn't really have a "central core." Central Phoenix is AN employment center, but so is north Scottsdale, so is 24th/Camelback, so is the airport, so is Tempe, so is Chandler, so is north Phoenix by I-17 & the 101, etc, etc. A huge portion of the valley's economy is warehouse/light industrial, which sprawls out miles and miles from south Phoenix westward deep into the West Valley and can't be concentrated in one small area. Central Phoenix is not one bit more dense than any other built up portion of the valley. In fact, I've seen 1980s era midrise suburban apartment complexes scattered around Baseline rd in Tempe, Hayden Rd in Scottsdale, and Cactus Rd in north Phoenix that are more dense with population than official "new urbanist" condo projects going up on Central Ave.

[Patrick754]

Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim

The problem is Phoenix doesn't really have a "central core." Central Phoenix is AN employment center, but so is north Scottsdale, so is 24th/Camelback, so is the airport, so is Tempe, so is Chandler, so is north Phoenix by I-17 & the 101, etc, etc.

That's true enough now, but it can obviously change. As traffic gets worse and gas costs rise there would be more incentive for employers to locate downtown in order to offer their employees public transit options like light rail and express buses and/or attract new employees who have no desire to spend hours on the freeway.