How much lower will home prices continue to fall?

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

[quote=markas214;3258821]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

It was Beazer in Surprise. No one knows where prices are headed but down would be a good guess. You're going to drive yourself crazy second guessing your purchase. One thing you can be assured by is that you didn't buy at the peak. I'm sure those people are going nuts over this.

We are happy with our purchase. I don't want anyone to think that we are second guessing the purchase. It is nice to get a call from the builder letting us know that the price has dropped. I would love to have another call like that. The base price of our home was $239,000 a year ago. In November when we decided to buy the price was $199,000. In January the price declined to $169,000. That is for the base price and we added some improvements to the home, so our price is a little higher than the base price. Five years ago my parents purchased a similar home for $132,000 in another part of Surprise. There home was loaded with options. Not sure what the base price for their home was at the time. Does this mean that the market has not hit bottom as of yet? Or based on inflation can we say that we are at the bottom?

Is the location of the home a consideration? Our home is in Surprise Farms about a mile west of the 303 loop, my parents home is in Rancho Gabriella six or seven miles east of the 303 I think. Would there be a difference in price based on location of the neighborhoods? This is all acedemic because I don't think it matters other than to determine if the market has returned to the 2003 level. The great thing for us is that the price is lower than last year.

[IMoveU]

Originally Posted by markas214

The homes in the best areas are up over 100-150% in the last 4 years. They will come down. $350,000 for a 40 year old starter home in Scottsdale is ridiculous and there simply aren't enough qualified buyers to maintain that level. Prices are sticky on the way down. No one will be drowning except the seller who holds out for "a better offer". In a year they'll be wishing they took the initial offer. I've checked the sales numbers in the "well-maintained areas". Sales are down as are prices. Spring will bring many more listings onto the market and those who want to sell will need to price aggressively and be willing to negotiate. The well-qualified buyer has all the leverage this time around.

You suggest doing "your research". Then say an agent deserves 3% following my doing the research. No way. I'm not paying anyone $12,000 to help me find a home. I do my own research and need very little assistance from a Realtor (trademarked). There are agents who see the sense in discounting commissions as 1% is better than 0%. There are many tools in place for a buyer to make informed decisions. The best would be checking the deed records of recent sales and comparing price per square foot in a desired location. Fact, there are 16 homes for slae per buyer according to the latest numbers. Also a pending sale is not final and there are many people being denied credit so some sales will not close.

Last time I was blunt about my not needing an agent to "guide" me through a purchase I got a negative rep point from an anonymous fool for my negativity. I was also called a hater. I am not a hater. I just see commissioned real estate sales going the way of the horse and buggy. 10 years ago you needed a realtor do the comps and get you access to the MLS. Not any more. Oh and zillow is a joke. I'm talking real research.

Right on...if you have the time, knowledge and skillset required to perform the level of due diligence necessary to make an "informed" decision on a property and that is the highest and best use of your time...go for it!

When I suggested doing your research, I meant it as statement inclusive of the agent and understanding the process of how you determine if someone can truly do the job you need or not.

I used to do my own taxes when I was younger...but when I figured out there were others out there better equipped to keep up with the ever-changing rules/regulations/ramifications, etc., I gave it up. But just like any other productivity enhancer...if you spend the money on something that will perform an activity better, faster and more efficiently, but then use the increased time you've created for yourself to warm the sofa, was it a wise investment?...probably not.

To say that real estate sales is going the way of the buggy whip is a fallacious statement; there just simply isn't a factual basis to support it. What is going the way of the buggy whip in my opinion, is crappy and unprofessional service performed by agents with a weak value proposition.

The real issue is there are too many people saying they are real estate professionals and too few actually being real estate professionals, which hurts the value perception for all.

Those agent's may get an offer on grandma's house but chances are when it's all said and done, grandma won't refer them any business.

I can tell you from experience that there are some VERY intelligent and capable people utilizing real estate agents out there and they have NO PROBLEM paying a full commission; why is that? Well, I believe it's because they know what they want, why they want it and are competent expressing their expectations and measuring results.

So, what it boils down to is...If I'm unable to maintain their positive perception of my value...It's me that is going the way of the buggy whip!..not the industry!! :-)

[artvandelay]

Mmmmmmmm, fallacious! Sounds good to me.

[IMoveU]

Originally Posted by artvandelay

Mmmmmmmm, fallacious! Sounds good to me.

Nope...that would be delicious!