Covid virus in phoenix (roaches, venues, community)

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by belgirl

Again--wrong. It doesn't matter when Ducey re-opened. He could have re-opened in August and cases still would have spiked (although I still contend not as much as if we were living in a colder climate) Unless we have herd immunity, a vaccine or better tracing (tracing is 1% in AZ) no amount of shutdowns is going to magically make Covid-19 disappear.

Definitely agree that the shutdowns solved nothing as far as stopping the spread of COVID 19. The number of cases actually increased from just under 1,000 statewide at the end of March (when the lockdown began) to over 13,000 on May 15th when the state officially reopened. That's an increase of approximately 12,000 cases during the time when practically all businesses were closed or restricted.

What I don't agree with is the theory that we'd be in worse shape if this was a colder climate. We've seen enough proof that the unseasonably hot temperatures during most of May did absolutely nothing to reduce the numbers. I was curious as to why the cold state of Minnesota reported very few COVID 19 cases early on during the late winter/early spring, but their numbers dramatically increased & surpassed Arizona's after the weather became warmer.

At this point I'm convinced that our heat is really good for little or nothing, and the only way to get a handle on this virus is to either develop an effective vaccine or simply let it run its course. Improving sanitary measures among businesses & public places I believe would also help. Forcing businesses to close was no effective solution, and the majority of people are not going to stand for another government mandated lockdown.

[DetroitN8V]

^the assertion that since the spread continued, the shutdown was ineffective is incorrect. No one suggested that the shutdown would be an absolute, that there would be no new cases. Of course it continued to spread. Our current surge compared to the lower numbers during the shutdown proves the contrary to what you’re claiming.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Definitely agree that the shutdowns solved nothing as far as stopping the spread of COVID 19. The number of cases actually increased from just under 1,000 statewide at the end of March (when the lockdown began) to over 13,000 on May 15th when the state officially reopened. That's an increase of approximately 12,000 cases during the time when practically all businesses were closed or restricted.

What I don't agree with is the theory that we'd be in worse shape if this was a colder climate. We've seen enough proof that the unseasonably hot temperatures during most of May did absolutely nothing to reduce the numbers. I was curious as to why the cold state of Minnesota reported very few COVID 19 cases early on during the late winter/early spring, but their numbers dramatically increased & surpassed Arizona's after the weather became warmer.

At this point I'm convinced that our heat is really good for little or nothing, and the only way to get a handle on this virus is to either develop an effective vaccine or simply let it run its course. Improving sanitary measures among businesses & public places I believe would also help. Forcing businesses to close was no effective solution, and the majority of people are not going to stand for another government mandated lockdown.

I too was surprised the heat hasn't helped. I thought the numbers would drop in AZ now that summer has arrived.

And yeah, I don't think the people will stand for another mandated lock-down. Not with massive protests being allowed throughout the country.

Best you can do is be careful yourself.

[Angelino19]

IMHO The only way to stay ahead of the virus, if that's even possible, is by aggressively testing. California has been aggressively testing for two months. In LA County (10 million population), the hardest hit county in the state, they test about 80,000 a week. If you test positive you must quarantine for 14 days. Although the number of those testing positive has remained steady, the number of hospitalizations continues to declined. Each county can set their own rules concerning masks. In LA County you must wear a mask when out in public. Based upon my observations alone, I'd say mask wearing compliance in LA County is at 90% or better. Even the vast majority of BLM protesters wore masks.

Restaurants were allowed to open this week at 40% capacity and movie theaters may be allowed to open next week, also at 40% capacity.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by john3232

I too was surprised the heat hasn't helped. I thought the numbers would drop in AZ now that summer has arrived.

And yeah, I don't think the people will stand for another mandated lock-down. Not with massive protests being allowed throughout the country.

Best you can do is be careful yourself.

If the main form of transmission was by physical contact versus droplets, the heat would have helped some. But it's been learned that isn't the case. That last point in combination with no one automatically had the antibodies meant the obvious. If you go about your normal business the virus is going to strike. You know, like everyone who studies the topic has predicted.

Yesterday, State health director tells Arizona hospitals to 'fully activate' emergency plans https://www.azcentral.com/story/news...ns/5321075002/

My gut feeling was that there are a lot of retirees that have dropped their guard. I assumed Maricopa County had higher than average people age 65+ than the rest of the country. Nope! According to demographics, Maricopa County has around 11% of people above 65 years old. And the USA has around 15%. Now if it was January, thousands of snowbirds are not counted in the PHX area population would be here. So that's not it right now. Therefore, I have to assume it is the "live and let live" mentality which is the main culprit. AZ mostly maskless approach means people in AZ will be rolling the dice with crowded hospitals.

Therefore, soon, the RV will be in reverse as I head out to the less full hospital beds in Northern MN. I will pop my bag of popcorn in MN while I watch the social experiment of denial run its course.

[move4ward]

Banner Health patients on ventilators have quadrupled since May 15th (3.5 weeks). This is mostly from the reopening and Memorial Day. These numbers can only go up, after the recent protests. That'

Banner Health says the number of COVID patients on ventilators has quadrupled
https://www.azfamily.com/news/contin...6a6e451dc.html

PHOENIX (3TV/CBS5) -- COVID numbers are continuing to spike at alarming rates as more people are being tested here in Arizona, amid the health department misreporting the number of available hospital beds in the state.

Now, hospitals have spoken out with major concerns about the virus and the numbers they’re seeing. Banner Health raised a major red flag Monday, tweeting that since May 15th their number of COVID patients on ventilators has quadrupled.

Arizona’ Family asked the health department if they're worried. “At this time, we are not concerned about a lack of ventilators, however we’ll continue to take a look,” said Jessica Rigler, the Assistant Director of the AZ Dept. of Health Services. “Banner is one system in the statewide system of healthcare facilities here

[belgirl]

"Honor Health said much of their surge has been patients coming in from northern Arizona, and New Mexico." from an article on azfamily.com

"The majority of hospitalizations and deaths are coming from assisted living and skilled nursing facilities," said Humble. He argues that an approach that targets those facilities would benefit the entire system."

I think there are a variety of factors affecting the surge - these are just two of them.

[Potential_Landlord]

In the absence of vaccine / effective treatment available the only strategy is the isolate the vulnerable while trying to reach her immunity asap for the rest. Throwing chickenpox parties like in the olden days. The virus very dis-proportionally affects a small # of people while being harmless for most. We most stop the spread from the hardly affected to the vulnerable. Slowing down the infection rate among the least-affected is counterproductive as it prolongs the infection risk for the vulnerable.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

In the absence of vaccine / effective treatment available the only strategy is the isolate the vulnerable while trying to reach her immunity asap for the rest. Throwing chickenpox parties like in the olden days. The virus very dis-proportionally affects a small # of people while being harmless for most. We most stop the spread from the hardly affected to the vulnerable. Slowing down the infection rate among the least-affected is counterproductive as it prolongs the infection risk for the vulnerable.

What is your theory based on? Herd immunity is not at all realistic. We'd need at least 200mm cases to scratch herd immunity's surface. Even then, we don't have strong evidence suggesting the level of immunity one will achieve with antibodies, so it even if we intentionally and quickly infect the least vulnerable population as you're suggesting, it may be useless.

We need to do everything we can to protect one another until there is a vaccine. Protecting the least vulnerable provides safety to the most vulnerable, and even those that seem least likely to have complications are still dying.

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

In the absence of vaccine / effective treatment available the only strategy is the isolate the vulnerable while trying to reach her immunity asap for the rest. Throwing chickenpox parties like in the olden days. The virus very dis-proportionally affects a small # of people while being harmless for most. We most stop the spread from the hardly affected to the vulnerable. Slowing down the infection rate among the least-affected is counterproductive as it prolongs the infection risk for the vulnerable.

Arizona has an adult obesity rate of 29.5%. We throw in the people over 65, and that's over half the population in the state. Then, we have to look at diabetes, chemo patients, high blood pressure, asthma, HIV, chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis due to alcohol, hepatitis, other liver conditions . You are looking small percentage of people that can do COVID parties.