Considering Chicago to Phoenix (Scottsdale, Chandler: crime rate, buying a house, buying)

[WK91]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Housing was too cheap for too long in the Phoenix area, which resulted in an overload of cheaper class people pouring in here primarily for low cost housing & the weather. Phoenix is now the nation's 5th largest city, and the economy is finally diversifying. It's not good for a city this large to be "cheap", unless you don't mind following in the footsteps of Detroit, Baltimore, or some other slum.

As for the 115 & 120 degree temps, they only occur about once every summer ... although I'm the first one to admit that June through September are miserable here. At the same time, it's pretty safe to say that it can be miserable in much of the northern & eastern U.S. this time of year with frigid temps, wind, ice, and snow.



So why are you complaining? You have something to show for your investment.



No arguments about the summer heat, which by far is the worst thing about living here. With that said, if people keep occupied with essential matters such as work (exception being those who work outside), and finding ways of mitigating the extremes, then the weather shouldn't be much of an issue. This goes for here, as well as places with bitter cold winters.

Do you even live in the Phoenix area?

In 2020, Phoenix had 14 days over 115. Plus in 2021, there were 6 days in a row over 115.

Also, according to you, there used to be “lower class” people hanging out in Phoenix? I’d say it’s just the opposite, the poverty, drug addiction, and homelessness is staggering in some areas. The crime and violence are rising. So I don’t see the housing price rise as a good thing.

As far as my personal financial situation, I’ve done very well through many decades of hard work and smart investments, just like many of us on this board, but that’s beside the point of what Phoenix should be. Housing shouldn’t be so expensive that it prices so many younger hard working people out of the market.

Lastly, we could get into what the real problem is in Detroit, Baltimore, and many other big cities, but I doubt you would want to know what I think on that subject. But I can guarantee you, I don’t think those cities are dumpster fires because of the low cost of housing.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by WK91

Do you even live in the Phoenix area?

In 2020, Phoenix had 14 days over 115. Plus in 2021, there were 6 days in a row over 115.

Of course I live here. I'm a native as my moniker says. Also, I'm fully aware of how hot the summers are, and I'm the first one to say that the heat is horrible. I'm also the first one to say that the summer of 2020 was unprecedented. Never before have so many extremely high temperatures occurred ... although a few past years like 1989 & 2011 were also ridiculously hot. I'm able to take vacations during the hot season and go to cooler places. Even if a person isn't able to get away, mitigation is the key. Sufficient cooling systems are widely available, and people also need to avoid doing stupid things like hiking or biking in the heat.

Originally Posted by WK91

Also, according to you, there used to be “lower class” people hanging out in Phoenix? I’d say it’s just the opposite, the poverty, drug addiction, and homelessness is staggering in some areas. The crime and violence are rising. So I don’t see the housing price rise as a good thing.

Unfortunately, crime, violence, homelessness, and poverty are problems in practically every large city, but there are other cities which are worse in this regard than Phoenix is. It really doesn't have to be that way (see Dubai & Singapore as examples). What I meant by the cheaper class is: too many people piled in here for low cost housing & the sunny weather, but had little ambition to improve themselves. As a result, we had a large service level economy with low paying jobs (still do to a certain point). A city this large should have a diversified economy, more attractions, corporations, and opportunities for higher level competitive jobs. That tends to drive up prices, but it's the bitter with the sweet.

At the time I bought my house, it was considered fairly expensive at the time, located in a desirable neighborhood, and still is. Now, you can't find a home in my area for under $500K, and some are easily priced at a million or more. I don't want a cheap housing market to where it attracts a bunch of tweaker or breeder types living near me. A house is an investment, and if that means paying a premium to live in a desirable area to avoid the lower element, I'm all for it.

Originally Posted by WK91

As far as my personal financial situation, I’ve done very well through many decades of hard work and smart investments, just like many of us on this board, but that’s beside the point of what Phoenix should be. Housing shouldn’t be so expensive that it prices so many younger hard working people out of the market.

I stated in the thread about Phoenix leading the nation in apartment deliveries that I happen to know two young women who were able to put down payments on places of their own. Granted, they're small places, but they don't need anything large. One person is a server at a restaurant that I frequent, works a second job at a golf club, AND is a coach at GCU. She is one of the most lively, positive people I have met lately in her age range ... very hard working, ambitious, and goal oriented. Instead of throwing money away on smart phones & other frivolous things, she saves & invests. So please, enough sobbing about how younger ones are priced out of the market because it's not all true.

Originally Posted by WK91

Lastly, we could get into what the real problem is in Detroit, Baltimore, and many other big cities, but I doubt you would want to know what I think on that subject. But I can guarantee you, I don’t think those cities are dumpster fires because of the low cost of housing.

Correct, but we don't want to end up like Detroit or Baltimore where there is zero or negative growth, outdated infrastructure, crime, poverty, and cheap prices as a result. I'd suggest that if you want a safe middle class location with cheap housing, look for a smaller town away from Phoenix.

[desert88]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I don't want a cheap housing market to where it attracts a bunch of tweaker or breeder types living near me. A house is an investment, and if that means paying a premium to live in a desirable area to avoid the lower element, I'm all for it.

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Correct, but we don't want to end up like Detroit or Baltimore where there is zero or negative growth, outdated infrastructure, crime, poverty, and cheap prices as a result.

Logically, your analysis would seem on the surface to have some validity. But largely I think your analysis is far off given the reality of the data and where things stand in other cities with characteristics you deem as positive.

Given your post referencing high/higher priced areas being the ideal to keep the "lower element" out, that concept is failing in many large "world class" cities and states and metros throughout the US. And it's not Detroit or Baltimore which are 2 of the worst examples I think you could use to sell your point given their stature for a long, long time now. We are talking about major "world class" cities like NYC and similar cities of that "stature". People are leaving in droves. Big time. I know many people who lived there and have lived there myself. Trust me, it's getting ugly. People are leaving in droves from these expensive metros and enclaves. For anyone paying attention to the why's of this, it's obvious. But my point in this in reference to your comment......look at the cost of living of these cities/metro areas people are leaving in droves from.....all the major arts and entertainment.....the insanely high price of housing that you profess will keep the "lower element" out......not working out so well. In fact, it's failing miserably on that level. Look at the data. Given this reality, I think your desires of what you want the Phoenix metro to be and what you think other areas are with their lofty high housing prices and city amenities galore is obviously not the utopia you are selling here. Be careful what you wish for I say. You just might get it, turning the Phoenix metro into what you feel is ideal based on superficial theory, into something far from being pleasant in reality.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by desert88

Given your post referencing high/higher priced areas being the ideal to keep the "lower element" out, that concept is failing in many large "world class" cities and states and metros throughout the US. And it's not Detroit or Baltimore which are 2 of the worst examples I think you could use to sell your point given their stature for a long, long time now. We are talking about major "world class" cities like NYC and similar cities of that "stature". People are leaving in droves. Big time. I know many people who lived there and have lived there myself. Trust me, it's getting ugly. People are leaving in droves from these expensive metros and enclaves.

NYC actually increased in population by 700,000 residents between 2010 and 2020. So while I'm sure there are people who left NYC (as many have left Phoenix over that same timeframe), the net change says differently than what you claim. In any case, you seem to be under the impression that I want Phoenix to resemble NYC, which isn't true at all. If anything, we should be looking at the large Texas metros as examples to emulate. Dallas & Houston could be considered world class because of their economic status ... but yet, they're not overly expensive, and not cheap either.

Originally Posted by desert88

For anyone paying attention to the why's of this, it's obvious. But my point in this in reference to your comment......look at the cost of living of these cities/metro areas people are leaving in droves from.....all the major arts and entertainment.....the insanely high price of housing that you profess will keep the "lower element" out......not working out so well. In fact, it's failing miserably on that level. Look at the data. Given this reality, I think your desires of what you want the Phoenix metro to be and what you think other areas are with their lofty high housing prices and city amenities galore is obviously not the utopia you are selling here. Be careful what you wish for I say. You just might get it, turning the Phoenix metro into what you feel is ideal based on superficial theory, into something far from being pleasant in reality.

Why do we have to be one extreme or the other? We don't have to copy NYC, San Francisco, Chicago, or L.A. At the same time, Phoenix no longer has to be a place where people go for just sunshine, outdoor recreation, and cheaper housing. A city this size should have a lot more to offer than those things. We have noticeably improved in the last decade or so (although rather slowly), but we still don't act our size all that much. This doesn't mean we have to be an overly crowded, crime ridden hell hole. Look at Dubai & Singapore: world class cities that are among the safest in the world.

I've lived in Phoenix all my life, and I know about the types of low class people we have attracted: everything from gangs, illegals, druggies, overly laid back unambitious types, and even families with out of control kids. I've seen it all, and this is what cheap housing often attracts. I don't want to be around those types, which is why I reside where I do. I made an investment by paying more than the average home price many years ago, and it paid off. This is what more people should be doing instead of blowing their money on smart phones, big vehicles that they don't need, or other ridiculous items.

[desert88]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

NYC actually increased in population by 700,000 residents between 2010 and 2020.

A large portion of that group is the "lower element" you refer to, people from other nations with low incomes. 35% back in 2018 was a number I've seen who make up that population gain. The other large group that makes up moving there to NYC are from other high rent districts, San Fran, LA, etc. so I think it's shifting chairs on the titanic type thing.

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I've lived in Phoenix all my life, and I know about the types of low class people we have attracted: everything from gangs, illegals, druggies, overly laid back unambitious types, and even families with out of control kids. I've seen it all, and this is what cheap housing often attracts. I don't want to be around those types, which is why I reside where I do.

Of course other "world class" cities with massive homeless problems like San Fran and LA are a higher class you seek here in Phoenix? Ok then. Since they have the high rent and the "educated" there, this shouldn't be happening at such a massive level according to your standards. But it is.

I think you've missed the obvious point I'm trying to make. My point is there are many cities that are considered "world class" that are VERY pricey to live in, high rent district, exactly what you say you seek with very high housing costs, yet have exactly the elements that you say you are trying to avoid. And it's occurring on steroids. The high rent districts/high net work/educated so to speak residents you appear to hold in high regard don't appear to be the magic glue to make a city great.

Originally Posted by Valley Native

I've lived in Phoenix all my life, and I know about the types of low class people we have attracted: everything from gangs, illegals, druggies, overly laid back unambitious types, and even families with out of control kids. I've seen it all, and this is what cheap housing often attracts. I don't want to be around those types, which is why I reside where I do. I made an investment by paying more than the average home price many years ago, and it paid off. This is what more people should be doing instead of blowing their money on smart phones, big vehicles that they don't need, or other ridiculous items.

What you list and are trying to avoid exists in every major city. Often in droves, far, far more than Phoenix or especially in the many nice suburbs in other states and cities I don't see around here in the Phoenix metro. I take it you never walked around many streets in LA recently. Or even the suburbs there of Orange County. Or San Fran. Or our good friends in a very upscale(once upon a time) Santa Rosa, CA where house prices are very high and they have homeless people living in vehicles in their once nice suburb street parked indefinitely. They line the streets. I'm not exaggerating. The police say there's nothing they can do. I don't see that here in Scottsdale. Goodyear. Surprise. Chandler. Gilbert. Do you? And he and his family were threatened by a homeless person behind their house with a machete while walking in the woods behind their house. Don't take this personal but I get the impression you don't get around too much in your job, if you work, or in recreation to other cities. What you seek is fantasy for Phoenix because it doesn't exist. Anywhere. What you list is reality in any major city and often far, far worse than Phoenix metro. With many friends and family escaping from these expensive "world class" cities and states who see a major breathe air in living in the Phoenix metro, all I can suggest to you is you really need to get out more and visit. Or do a search right now on youtube like "homeless California" in the "high rent districts" and you just might tone it down a bit how bad you think the Phoenix metro is.

Originally Posted by Valley Native

This is what more people should be doing instead of blowing their money on smart phones, big vehicles that they don't need, or other ridiculous items.

Last I knew people who work for their money had the freedom to buy what they want here in the Phoenix area without your seal of approval/judgement?

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by desert88

A large portion of that group is the "lower element" you refer to, people from other nations with low incomes. 35% back in 2018 was a number I've seen who make up that population gain. The other large group that makes up moving there to NYC are from other high rent districts, San Fran, LA, etc. so I think it's shifting chairs on the titanic type thing.

Of course other "world class" cities with massive homeless problems like San Fran and LA are a higher class you seek here in Phoenix? Ok then. Since they have the high rent and the "educated" there, this shouldn't be happening at such a massive level according to your standards. But it is.

I think you've missed the obvious point I'm trying to make. My point is there are many cities that are considered "world class" that are VERY pricey to live in, high rent district, exactly what you say you seek with very high housing costs, yet have exactly the elements that you say you are trying to avoid. And it's occurring on steroids. The high rent districts/high net work/educated so to speak residents you appear to hold in high regard don't appear to be the magic glue to make a city great.

What you list and are trying to avoid exists in every major city. Often in droves, far, far more than Phoenix or especially in the many nice suburbs in other states and cities I don't see around here in the Phoenix metro. I take it you never walked around many streets in LA recently. Or even the suburbs there of Orange County. Or San Fran. Or our good friends in a very upscale(once upon a time) Santa Rosa, CA where house prices are very high and they have homeless people living in vehicles in their once nice suburb street parked indefinitely. They line the streets. I'm not exaggerating. The police say there's nothing they can do. I don't see that here in Scottsdale. Goodyear. Surprise. Chandler. Gilbert. Do you? And he and his family were threatened by a homeless person behind their house with a machete while walking in the woods behind their house. Don't take this personal but I get the impression you don't get around too much in your job, if you work, or in recreation to other cities. What you seek is fantasy for Phoenix because it doesn't exist. Anywhere. What you list is reality in any major city and often far, far worse than Phoenix metro. With many friends and family escaping from these expensive "world class" cities and states who see a major breathe air in living in the Phoenix metro, all I can suggest to you is you really need to get out more and visit. Or do a search right now on youtube like "homeless California" in the "high rent districts" and you just might tone it down a bit how bad you think the Phoenix metro is.

Did you even read what I stated about how we SHOULDN'T copy L.A., San Francisco, or NYC? Have you been to Houston or Dallas? They are much more sought after than anything along the west or east coasts because of their great economic opportunities. The cost of living is not enormously expensive in the large Texas metros, but it's not cheap either. These are the cities we should be looking up to.

You make it sound like Phoenix would be a city riddled with crime & homelessness if we became more world class. It doesn’t have to be that way. We have enough of that lower element as it is, but why couldn't we rise above what L.A. & San Francisco have become? Again, I point to cities like Dubai & Singapore which are world class destinations, but among the safest cities anywhere. They don't allow crime, violence, homeless, and riots to be out of control like many U.S. cities do.

My whole point was directed at WK91, who thinks the Phoenix housing market should be cheap, mainly because we have horribly hot summers. Are you agreeing with WK91? If so, you should realize that poster has made comments about Phoenix being crime ridden. He even said earlier in this thread that much of Phoenix is "a third world barrio". Read it for yourself. He’s the one who thinks a large part of this metro area is bad ... not me. I'm mainly pointing out that Phoenix could be doing better at acting its size. What are you in favor of ... holding on to the past and NOT attracting more of the goal oriented, educated, high wage earners? Are you yet another person who wants Phoenix to be slow paced and laid back?

Originally Posted by desert88

Last I knew people who work for their money had the freedom to buy what they want here in the Phoenix area without your seal of approval/judgement?

It was a response to the ones on here who are constantly whining about how expensive the rentals & housing costs have become. They seem to enjoy playing the victims, but don't have enough ambition to get off their butts & improve their own lives. They're often the same ones who complain about not having enough money for a decent place to live, but they drive around in new cars, big trucks or SUVs, and are purchasing the latest, greatest smart devices. See the irony?

[timothyaw]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

...Again, I point to cities like Dubai & Singapore which are world class destinations, but among the safest cities anywhere. They don't allow crime, violence, homeless, and riots to be out of control like many U.S. cities do....

Those cities are in different countries and a totally difficult culture. You're not gonna find that here in large US cities.

[desert88]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

You make it sound like Phoenix would be a city riddled with crime & homelessness if we became more world class. Are you yet another person who wants Phoenix to be slow paced and laid back?

No. You're missing the point. My original post with probably too much elaboration so I'll frame it more simple....my main point is based on your comment that higher home prices brings a better class of person AND somehow that's part of a viable educated city in keeping out the "lower element". I disagree with that. My examples show cities and states that have both, high incomes, highly "educated" populace(I'm not impressed frankly, even though I have 5 years of college myself) and those cities/states have lots of problems. Though you don't want Phoenix to become LA or San Fran, I get it, I read your point, but they are still solid examples to my point that I'm making in reference to your ideal Phoenix metro.....both cities/metros have very high income educated people living there and look at what happened.

*****Again, highly educated, high end jobs, high home prices, don't make a decent city.****

Phoenix metro could fall into the same, maybe, maybe not, with those elements you hold in high regard. Waaaay to many other variables.

In regards to what I want Phoenix to be? Well, it is what it is. It's out of my control. And frankly should be. I can't control what others do nor would I want to. I'm one who moves and lives in a place because I like it how it is. Not perfect of course, but has more positives than negatives. For me. This is the Phoenix suburbs for me and it's the best place I've lived in my entire life. By far. I don't want to put my thumb on the scale and change it because it doesn't suit me and complain about it. Too much of that going around. Someone like me wants something the Phoenix metro doesn't offer at this point, now or never? Then I move to a city or state that offers that. Right now. I frankly have a problem with hearing "but this place isn't like so and so city where I came from or envy, so hey, let's change it!". And we should be this....and that....or the other thing. Stop complaining about what it is/should be is my view to people. Life's too short for one to live in a place or try to control the uncontrollable. It gets very old for me. Is this an exercise in Utopia fantasy? Well, that's' fine, but it's a waste of time in my book. I live in reality.

Originally Posted by Valley Native

It was a response to the ones on here who are constantly whining about how expensive the rentals & housing costs have become. They seem to enjoy playing the victims, but don't have enough ambition to get off their butts & improve their own lives. They're often the same ones who complain about not having enough money for a decent place to live, but they drive around in new cars, big trucks or SUVs, and are purchasing the latest, greatest smart devices. See the irony?

Understand, I have seen the same thing.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by desert88

No. You're missing the point. My original post with probably too much elaboration so I'll frame it more simple....my main point is based on your comment that higher home prices brings a better class of person AND somehow that's part of a viable educated city in keeping out the "lower element". I disagree with that. My examples show cities and states that have both, high incomes, highly "educated" populace(I'm not impressed frankly, even though I have 5 years of college myself) and those cities/states have lots of problems. Though you don't want Phoenix to become LA or San Fran, I get it, I read your point, but they are still solid examples to my point that I'm making in reference to your ideal Phoenix metro.....both cities/metros have very high income educated people living there and look at what happened.

*****Again, highly educated, high end jobs, high home prices, don't make a decent city.****

You seem to be defining "educated" as somebody who graduated from college. I'm also college educated ... and while I believe college certainly has its importance, I said many times that I'd much rather hire and/or work with somebody with skills, ambition, determination, and educated in the way of life experience & people smarts than somebody fresh out of college with little or none of the above. What exactly would you have against more high end jobs? I'd rather see an influx of those instead of an overload of lower paid service level jobs, which we've had for a long time.

The way Phoenix used to be (and still is somewhat): a place where people moved to escape cities like Chicago & New York, and have a relaxed way of life. That might have been fine 40 or 50 years ago. With our population rank and high growth, we can no longer act like a small or mid sized city. Corporations, competitive jobs, higher wages, and plentiful amenities are some of the things which help make a city prestigious (and more respected). I don't see any reason why we can't have these things, as well as be low in crime, violence, poverty, and homelessness. People choose their own directions in life, and those things can be easily avoided regardless of where they live.

[dtyfygiu]

Chicago can't compare to Phoenix. The suburbs are world class (scottsdale, chandler), the beautiful mountains, and the great weather. Also its more diverse with people from everywhere moving here