You think its bad for PAT now, it's about to get A LOT WORSE! (Penn: storage, oil)

[CFP]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

The U.S. household debt service and financial obligation ratios have come crashing down:

Not in the long term they haven't. Short term, yes - long term, no way.

Here's Personal Income in billions:
Personal Income (PI) - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Here's Total Consumer Credit Outstanding in billions:
Total Consumer Credit Outstanding (TOTALSL) - FRED - St. Louis Fed

Now look at Personal Income in terms of Consumer Credit (Debt):
http://i47.tinypic.com/111uj3o.png

I hope you can see from the chart that the denominator (consumer debt) is rising at a greater rate than the numerator (personal income) - hence the ratio is trending lower.

This PAT bus issue is a symptom of a larger problem - the era of cheap oil and expensive oil financed with debt is over. This is good for Downtown and the East End and bad for the suburbs.

[ML North]

Originally Posted by CFP

Indirectly it will have that effect. The modern, industrial world was built on cheap oil.

The world's preferred source of energy has continually changed over time as newer and better technologies have become available. Sure, it might be the case that such transformation will necessitate changes in transportation and housing trends; however, I don't see any reason to believe that that will cause any long term and sustained hindrance to the economy. I actually think the opposite will be true, because our move away from oil will likely be due not to a shortage, but rather to the availability of better sources of energy.

[BrianTH]

Originally Posted by CFP

Not in the long term they haven't. Short term, yes - long term, no way.

You are looking at the ratio of income to debt totals, rather than income to debt service. But debt service ratios are what is relevant to your claim:

Originally Posted by CFP

Unfortunately, due to off-shoring and automation, incomes have not risen enough to service the debt sufficiently.

Incidentally, you also looked at only consumer debt. The debt service ratio data I provided adds mortgage service. The financial obligations ratio further adds "automobile lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners' insurance, and property tax payments."

Conversely, you looked at all personal income. The ratio data I provided uses disposable personal income, which is personal income minus personal current taxes.

[CFP]

Originally Posted by ML North

The world's preferred source of energy has continually changed over time, usually without so much as a hiccup. I don't find any reason to believe that oil is particularly unique in that regard.

I wasn't aware that PAT has buses that can run on wood, coal, water and nuclear.

[ML North]

Originally Posted by CFP

I wasn't aware that PAT has buses that can run on wood, coal, water and nuclear.

Electric buses.

The point is that, while PAT may be paralyzed by political gridlock, I don't think that either the availability or cost of energy will be huge concern. This is especially true since PAT is able to provide per passenger-mile transportation which is much cheaper than the alternatives.

Originally Posted by CFP

In this extensive discussion I see little mention of the biggest factor in the equation - fuel costs.

The disagreement lies with this point. Policy and public support are the biggest factors, not fuel costs.

[CFP]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

You are looking at the ratio of income to debt totals, rather than income to debt service. But debt service ratios are what is relevant to your claim:
Conversely, you looked at all personal income. The ratio data I provided uses disposable personal income, which is personal income minus personal current taxes.

I see the chart you are referring to:
Household Debt Service Payments as a Percent of Disposable Personal Income (TDSP) - FRED - St. Louis Fed

The chart I posted is basically an inverted version of it.
http://i49.tinypic.com/351zggl.png

Again, debt levels have indeed come down over the short term, but over the longer term they have been rising. And the reason for that I believe is the end of cheap oil for buses, cars and planes.

[Scott2187]

Originally Posted by CFP

"Peak Oil" is not a very useful term. The end of "Cheap Oil" more accurately describes the situation. They aren't drilling in deep water for kicks, you know.

You're right. The EPA has regulated drilling in the 'shallow' waters, so deep water is the only place oil companies can drill off of the US coast lines.

[CFP]

Originally Posted by ML North

The disagreement lies with this point. Policy and public support are the biggest factors, not fuel costs.

If gasoline prices were not near record highs, I would be in agreement with you.
But when a vehicle oriented public transportation service like PAT starts cutting back on services in an environment of near record high gasoline prices, I just find it odd that that factor isn't being discussed more.

Fun discussion nonetheless.

[I_Like_Spam]

Originally Posted by BrianTH

I think the upshot is that it is quite clear there is nothing inherent in American culture reflected in current automobile technology--it is just something most of us use out of necessity, with a little help from some well-funded marketing campaigns and a lot of help from systematic undermining of the alternatives.

The private automobile allows the traveler to choose the time and routing of his trip, instead of relying on public transportation schedules. This convenience is why people like it.

And I don't really agree with the "nothing inherent" comment, America has always been a nation which has been spread out, the frontier and getting one's own plot of land has been part of American lore and culture since before the Civil War. This scattering makes the problem of public transport so much more difficult of a problem than it would be in a more densely populated kind of continent.

Sure, marketers promoted it, but they wouldn't have been as successful if it wasn't already part of America.

[CFP]

One more thing: real GDP per capita has not fully recovered during the recovery (because oil prices spiked above $100 a barrel again):
http://i50.tinypic.com/xpzkzk.png

And on a year to year percent change basis real GDP per capita has been trending lower since the early '80s when gasoline was only $1.25 a gallon:
http://i49.tinypic.com/2pydr9z.png