2015 Pittsburgh MSA Population Estimates (Mount Lebanon, Lebanon: section 8, chapel, homes)

[Pughnose]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Before a tree spreads its branches and roots, it starts as a mere seed.

Not all! As the great arborist P. T. Barnum is reputed to have observed, "There's a sucker born every minute."

[erieguy]

^^^^ This.

[eschaton]

Not that it would make any difference for this particular year, but I've never understood why Armstrong and Fayette Counties were added to the MSA. Their connection to the City of Pittsburgh, or even to Allegheny County more broadly, seems tenuous indeed.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Not that it would make any difference for this particular year, but I've never understood why Armstrong and Fayette Counties were added to the MSA. Their connection to the City of Pittsburgh, or even to Allegheny County more broadly, seems tenuous indeed.

Fayette County indeed seems like a stretch; however, I do believe many people could (and do) live in Freeport and the surrounding townships in Armstrong County and commute ~25 minutes each way to the RIDC Park in O'Hara Township.

[Pughnose]

Originally Posted by eschaton

Not that it would make any difference for this particular year, but I've never understood why Armstrong and Fayette Counties were added to the MSA. Their connection to the City of Pittsburgh, or even to Allegheny County more broadly, seems tenuous indeed.

Looks like the OMB added Armstrong Cty as of the 2013 delineations, based on the 2010 census and the 2000 revised standards for definition of MSAs.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...013/b13-01.pdf

Fayette Cty showed up in 1983:

1950 - 1980: Allegheny, Beaver, Washington, Westmoreland comprised the Pittsburgh SMSA (S for standard). I didn't check all intervening revision documents, so caveat lector.
1983: Allegheny, Fayette, Washington, Westmoreland comprised the Pittsburgh PMSA (P for primary).
Beaver Cty broken out as Beaver County PMSA.
Together the two PMSA's formed Pittsburgh-Beaver Valley, PA CMSA (C for consolidated).
1993: Beaver and Butler included in the Pittsburgh MSA, along with the previous four listed for 1983.
Metropolitan and Micropolitan - Historical Statistical Area Delineations - People and Households - U.S. Census Bureau

Rational for changes might be found in the 2000 standards, https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/def...reas122700.pdf. A brief skim found them talking about employment and commuting as rationale for expanding delineations, which would seem to support SCR's comment.

<tl;dr: Yeah, eschaton, I'm not sure either!>

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

Fayette County indeed seems like a stretch; however, I do believe many people could (and do) live in Freeport and the surrounding townships in Armstrong County and commute ~25 minutes each way to the RIDC Park in O'Hara Township.

I understand this. However, to give a counterexample, I grew up in Fairfield County Connecticut. Many people there take the train or otherwise commute into NYC (including my father at certain times when I was growing up). However, it is not defined as being part of the NYC MSA (although it is part of the CSA).

I could provide other examples too. For example, Ontario, California is not considered part of the LA MSA (even though it is part of the urbanized area) instead part of a different MSA which only covers San Bernardino County. San Jose isn't in the same MSA as San Francisco. Eastern PA cities which are clearly in Philly's orbit, like Reading, aren't in the Philadelphia MSA.

[Katarina Witt]

*Population hemorrhaging seems to be over in Beaver County

Yes, it seems that way from what I can tell from friends and family. That is a good thing.

[erieguy]

I've heard some interesting things about the Shell Cracker Plant. "Sounds" like it's going to be a huge deal for Beaver County if everything goes through.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Well, if he's not wrong, then certainly he can explain to us all how the working-age population in the Pittsburgh MSA has been growing if there aren't enough jobs.


Pittsburgh MSA working-age population (ages 18-64)

2000: 1,458,721
2010: 1,474,232
2014: 1,477,560


If there aren't enough jobs to go around, then then working-age population will decrease, not increase.

So now it's down to working age population? How many of those are good paying/quality jobs that are worth moving for?

As I've said before, numbers can be twisted any way one likes to make it sound better than it is...even when the census data shows a red bottom line. Reminds me of sports analytics when a team loses...but be patient, as I expect better numbers in the next census report.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by erieguy

So now it's down to working age population? How many of those are good paying/quality jobs that are worth moving for?

Plenty, if growth in average annual pay from 2004-2013 is indicative of anything.