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Pennsylvania's population came in at 13,011,844 for the 2020 Census, an increase of 2.4% While it is about 1% worse than 2000 and 2010, it still is 200,000 more than that estimates were saying and better than I thought it would be. Does anyone think that means better news Allegheny and its surrounding counties? Or just than central to eastern PA is growing more that anticipated?
Pennsylvania's population came in at 13,011,844 for the 2020 Census, an increase of 2.4% While it is about 1% worse than 2000 and 2010, it still is 200,000 more than that estimates were saying and better than I thought it would be. Does anyone think that means better news Allegheny and its surrounding counties? Or just than central to eastern PA is growing more that anticipated?
I think the growth will be in the southeast, south central and poconos of the state. I still see steep losses everywhere else including Pittsburgh and Allegheny county.
I mean we are talking about 1% less growth than from 2000 to 2010 when Allegheny County lost 58,000 people with 28,000 in the city alone.
I may be wrong but I’m betting on the last 80 years of declines in the Pittsburgh area. Until it’s proven differently with the official new census numbers.
I think the growth will be in the southeast, south central and poconos of the state. I still see steep losses everywhere else including Pittsburgh and Allegheny county.
I mean we are talking about 1% less growth than from 2000 to 2010 when Allegheny County lost 58,000 people with 28,000 in the city alone.
I may be wrong but I’m betting on the last 80 years of declines in the Pittsburgh area. Until it’s proven differently with the official new census numbers.
Well, I think Allegheny will still be little worse than what the estimates are saying, but it will be the best census for it in some time though. It may just barely dip below 1.2 million and drop a little over 2% (1% worse than Westmoreland was in 2010). I think Butler and Washington will probably increase maybe about 1% less than in 2010, so 4 something% and 1 something% respectively, which is better than what the estimates are saying due to their positive migration rates. Beaver will probably even do a little better than 2010, maybe only down about 3.5-4% as compared to 6%, parallel to Allegheny County's patterns. I expect Westmoreland to probably see the steepest decline overall of any of the counties surrounding metro Pittsburgh, maybe down about 5 something percent (1% worse than Allegheny was in 2010).
Southeast Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia collar counties (Bucks, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery) are on fire right now with development. So many people from DC, NYC and NJ are moving here because it is so much more affordable and still approximate to the entire NEC and it still retains a very high quality of life. SEPA has great transit, reasonable real estate costs, so much character (I think the SEPA suburbs are top 5 in the nation in terms of character), and great schools and business/economic opportunity.
The Lehigh Valley. Similar... many from NY and NJ are moving here because you can actually still purchase a fairly nice home for 400k here and it has some nice larger city amenities while also being only about 60 minutes to both NYC and Philadelphia.
Susquehanna Valley. Lancaster and Harrisburg are hot right now in growth... its job growth is a little slower though.. So I am curious to see what new industry will break into this region. But it has great connectivity to all the larger major city metros that 20 years ago was the reason everyone left.. but because it has the low COL everyone is returning. 300k here now gets you nothing nice though to get you an idea how quickly real estate has gotten more pricey in this part of the state.
State College... Obviously Penn State is the economic engine of this part of the state... And I see this area growing more. Especially since it is only about 60 minutes from Harrisburg which continues to see more and more investment.
Pittsburgh has so many positive developments... but on a metro wide level it is in a transition state still.... but honestly since smaller metros like Nashville, Austin and Denver increase in real estate costs at a crazy level.. I see Pittsburgh gaining more traction within the next 5 years... 300k really still gets you a nice home here....
Poconos/Scranton... Honestly with COVID many people have relocated here from again NY and NJ for the lower taxes and lower COL along with the more peaceful way of life. And I think the Pocono tourism is top notch and has done a fantastic job of reestablishing the Poconos tourism industry from the NYC, Philadelphia, Lehigh Valley and Susquehanna Valley metros which is about 20 million peo0ple in total..
Erie... I think won't see any long term growth over the next decade... and the rest of the state I see a continuation to hollow out as the population ages..
Southeast Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia collar counties (Bucks, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery) are on fire right now with development. So many people from DC, NYC and NJ are moving here because it is so much more affordable and still approximate to the entire NEC and it still retains a very high quality of life. SEPA has great transit, reasonable real estate costs, so much character (I think the SEPA suburbs are top 5 in the nation in terms of character), and great schools and business/economic opportunity.
The Lehigh Valley. Similar... many from NY and NJ are moving here because you can actually still purchase a fairly nice home for 400k here and it has some nice larger city amenities while also being only about 60 minutes to both NYC and Philadelphia.
Susquehanna Valley. Lancaster and Harrisburg are hot right now in growth... its job growth is a little slower though.. So I am curious to see what new industry will break into this region. But it has great connectivity to all the larger major city metros that 20 years ago was the reason everyone left.. but because it has the low COL everyone is returning. 300k here now gets you nothing nice though to get you an idea how quickly real estate has gotten more pricey in this part of the state.
State College... Obviously Penn State is the economic engine of this part of the state... And I see this area growing more. Especially since it is only about 60 minutes from Harrisburg which continues to see more and more investment.
Pittsburgh has so many positive developments... but on a metro wide level it is in a transition state still.... but honestly since smaller metros like Nashville, Austin and Denver increase in real estate costs at a crazy level.. I see Pittsburgh gaining more traction within the next 5 years... 300k really still gets you a nice home here....
Poconos/Scranton... Honestly with COVID many people have relocated here from again NY and NJ for the lower taxes and lower COL along with the more peaceful way of life. And I think the Pocono tourism is top notch and has done a fantastic job of reestablishing the Poconos tourism industry from the NYC, Philadelphia, Lehigh Valley and Susquehanna Valley metros which is about 20 million peo0ple in total..
Erie... I think won't see any long term growth over the next decade... and the rest of the state I see a continuation to hollow out as the population ages..
I’d love to see Erie grow but I agree there isn’t much hope.
As far as Pittsburgh area I think westmoreland will do better than expected and I think Allegheny will do worse than expected
The growth is going to be in the central and eastern part of the state to stave off huge declines everywhere else.
I’ve heard the same think about NY folks leaving the city to go to the poconos, which begs to ask, is upstate NY not doing as bad as people assume? The state added almost a healthy million people. I just think upstate is not the mass exodus out that people expected.
I’d love to see Erie grow but I agree there isn’t much hope.
As far as Pittsburgh area I think westmoreland will do better than expected and I think Allegheny will do worse than expected
The growth is going to be in the central and eastern part of the state to stave off huge declines everywhere else.
I’ve heard the same think about NY folks leaving the city to go to the poconos, which begs to ask, is upstate NY not doing as bad as people assume? The state added almost a healthy million people. I just think upstate is not the mass exodus out that people expected.
Yeah it's hard to say what exactly will happen there. Which areas of Westmoreland do you see solid growth in? Where do you think the big losses in Allegheny will be. I sort of thought the city would come in around 293,000, a little worse than the estimates but best in a while.
Southeast Pennsylvania. The Philadelphia collar counties (Bucks, Delaware, Chester, Montgomery) are on fire right now with development. So many people from DC, NYC and NJ are moving here because it is so much more affordable and still approximate to the entire NEC and it still retains a very high quality of life. SEPA has great transit, reasonable real estate costs, so much character (I think the SEPA suburbs are top 5 in the nation in terms of character), and great schools and business/economic opportunity.
The Lehigh Valley. Similar... many from NY and NJ are moving here because you can actually still purchase a fairly nice home for 400k here and it has some nice larger city amenities while also being only about 60 minutes to both NYC and Philadelphia.
Susquehanna Valley. Lancaster and Harrisburg are hot right now in growth... its job growth is a little slower though.. So I am curious to see what new industry will break into this region. But it has great connectivity to all the larger major city metros that 20 years ago was the reason everyone left.. but because it has the low COL everyone is returning. 300k here now gets you nothing nice though to get you an idea how quickly real estate has gotten more pricey in this part of the state.
State College... Obviously Penn State is the economic engine of this part of the state... And I see this area growing more. Especially since it is only about 60 minutes from Harrisburg which continues to see more and more investment.
Pittsburgh has so many positive developments... but on a metro wide level it is in a transition state still.... but honestly since smaller metros like Nashville, Austin and Denver increase in real estate costs at a crazy level.. I see Pittsburgh gaining more traction within the next 5 years... 300k really still gets you a nice home here....
Poconos/Scranton... Honestly with COVID many people have relocated here from again NY and NJ for the lower taxes and lower COL along with the more peaceful way of life. And I think the Pocono tourism is top notch and has done a fantastic job of reestablishing the Poconos tourism industry from the NYC, Philadelphia, Lehigh Valley and Susquehanna Valley metros which is about 20 million peo0ple in total..
Erie... I think won't see any long term growth over the next decade... and the rest of the state I see a continuation to hollow out as the population ages..
Actually, State College is more like 90 minutes from Harrisburg but it is still a very solid growth area for PA mostly due to the presence of Penn State University and central location within the state. It is probably the only other area of PA that is not part of the Megalopolis metro corridor to see growth other than pockets around Pittsburgh.
Yeah it's hard to say what exactly will happen there. Which areas of Westmoreland do you see solid growth in? Where do you think the big losses in Allegheny will be. I sort of thought the city would come in around 293,000, a little worse than the estimates but best in a while.
I think in Allegheny, most of the losses outside of the city will be the Eastern suburbs and southern suburbs closest to the mon valley. I expect those areas to have steep losses.
In the city, I think the traditionally black neighborhoods on the east end have just plummeted even more. I also think there will be pretty large losses for the south hills and the western neighborhoods, like Sheraden. In the north side I think upper part to the north suburbs sustained substantial losses like observatory hill and Perry hilltop and Marshall Shadeland. I’d throw Brighton heights in there as well. IMO for the city to sustain population all of those areas have to be pretty much stable or at a positive. I don’t see it.
Some surprises I think Beechview will show growth while the southside flats show decline.
As far as westmoreland I think murrsysville is likely doing the best. I think Greensburg City and the New Stanton areas will do better than most people expect. Most of the losses will be from places like Jeanette and north that border Armstrong county.
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