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Yeah, but I didn't ask what they would be adjusted to.
Ken
Because you don't care about the real numbers, you care about the initial numbers which are typically better than the real numbers and you only care about those because you're living in lala land believing that we've turned the corner and everything is peaches and cream for Obama and the rest of the world.
Because you don't care about the real numbers, you care about the initial numbers which are typically better than the real numbers and you only care about those because you're living in lala land believing that we've turned the corner and everything is peaches and cream for Obama and the rest of the world.
Of course I care about the real numbers but that's NOT what I'm asking. We won't know about the final number for 2 months or so. This poll is about TOMORROW'S numbers. The final numbers will have to wait.
If you want though you can feel free to make a prediction about the December numbers (they should be pretty final tomorrow).
I'll make a prediction at those: +130,000 (currently the number is +121,000).
Feel free to make your guess.
Ken
PS - by the way the final numbers are NOT necessarily worse than the premininary numbers. Sometimes they go up & sometimes they go down.
When the Bureau of Labor & Statistics (BLS) compiles the numbers they do a “seasonal adjustment†meaning they typically change the prior year’s benchmark number to reflect changes in the workforce etc. In October 2008, the figure that we needed to surpass in 2009 was 840,000 jobs. However, in 2009 we came in at 870,000 jobs, which was a small gain.
So, instead of using 840,000 jobs (the figure from 2009) or more as the new bar we needed to reach for job growth, the BLS lowered the bar to 768,000 jobs for the October 2010 calculation. Then they released a statement that said 874,000 jobs was a gain of 151,000 jobs. Also, other factors make the numbers not add up correctly. According to John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics, the BLS' fiddling with the figures via what he calls “seasonal-factor gamesâ€, actually created 200,000 phantom jobs last month. It also explains why seasonally adjusted payrolls were revised upward by 110,000 jobs in September 2010, including 56,000 jobs in August 2010.
Part of the “fiddling†that was mentioned above has to do with the fact that the BLS does not properly factor in the birth/death index. The birth/death index is made up of jobs lost due to businesses that are shut down and no longer report payroll numbers. The BLS assumes all people who lost jobs due to a business closure immediately find new employment. They add on an average of 100,000 jobs a month to the jobs numbers to account for those new jobs.
Of course I care about the real numbers but that's NOT what I'm asking. We won't know about the final number for 2 months or so. This poll is about TOMORROW'S numbers. The final numbers will have to wait.
If you want though you can feel free to make a prediction about the December numbers (they should be pretty final tomorrow).
I'll make a prediction at those: +130,000 (currently the number is +121,000).
Feel free to make your guess.
Ken
PS - by the way the final numbers are NOT necessarily worse than the premininary numbers. Sometimes they go up & sometimes they go down.
Whats the point in predicting an admittedly inaccurate number?
When the Bureau of Labor & Statistics (BLS) compiles the numbers they do a “seasonal adjustment” meaning they typically change the prior year’s benchmark number to reflect changes in the workforce etc. In October 2008, the figure that we needed to surpass in 2009 was 840,000 jobs. However, in 2009 we came in at 870,000 jobs, which was a small gain.
So, instead of using 840,000 jobs (the figure from 2009) or more as the new bar we needed to reach for job growth, the BLS lowered the bar to 768,000 jobs for the October 2010 calculation. Then they released a statement that said 874,000 jobs was a gain of 151,000 jobs. Also, other factors make the numbers not add up correctly. According to John Williams at Shadow Government Statistics, the BLS' fiddling with the figures via what he calls “seasonal-factor games”, actually created 200,000 phantom jobs last month. It also explains why seasonally adjusted payrolls were revised upward by 110,000 jobs in September 2010, including 56,000 jobs in August 2010.
Part of the “fiddling” that was mentioned above has to do with the fact that the BLS does not properly factor in the birth/death index. The birth/death index is made up of jobs lost due to businesses that are shut down and no longer report payroll numbers. The BLS assumes all people who lost jobs due to a business closure immediately find new employment. They add on an average of 100,000 jobs a month to the jobs numbers to account for those new jobs.
Yeah I understand what you are talking about now. TrimTabs has been critical of the BLS calculation method and gave much lower job growth numbers for 2009 than the BLS did. Interestingly however TrimTabs's number for job growth some months in 2010 were MUCH higher than those from the BLS so those "adjustments" can apparently work BOTH WAYS.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 03-03-2011 at 05:33 PM..
Yeah I understand what you are talking about now. TrimTabs has been critical of the BLS calculation method and gave much lower job growth numbers for 2009 than the BLS did. Interestingly however TrimTabs's number for job growth some months in 2010 were MUCH higher than those from the BLS so those "adjustments" can apparently work BOTH WAYS.
Ken
I am sure it is difficult to do. Another issue is the number of people who are giving up and then out of the workforce. Some are trully discouraged but some are just boomer's retiring early and deciding to live on less. How do you factor that in?
So, the report is in: 190,000 net job gain in February - with the UE rate dropping to 8.9. Pretty darned good.
Congrats to Jaggy001 for his accurate prediction.
Ken
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