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I dont need to substantiate evidence, the links were provided for your review. I said they COULD.. If you are saying they dont, then thats YOUR responsibility to substantiate the evidence..
I'm the one accepting the decades old standard for unemployment figures.
For some strange reason, you object to this month's report.
Quote:
I dont consider surveys "labor statistics".. a labor statistic to me would be by looking at actual payroll figures, i.e. something concrete to validate claims.
Um.. if they interview the same people monthly (i.e. 75% of them are the same) and the majority of them had a job.. then the percentage wouldnt change very much of next month because the majory of them STILL have a job.. right? Slap your head but do the math first.
I DID the math, you don't seem to even understand the CONCEPT - so let me lay it out for you AGAIN.
The claim is that prior to 1994 anyone without a job (including those no longer LOOKING) was grouped into ONE category of unemployed and that when the change went into place suddenly those who were no longer LOOKING were no longer counted. Since there is generally about the same amount of folks no longer LOOKING as there are actively LOOKING then IF it was true that in 1994 the folks no longer LOOKING were suddenly not included in the UE rate then that UE rate would suddenly DROP by a ratio reflecting the number of Actively LOOKING vs No Longer LOOKING (in other words the UE rate would be suddenly cut IN HALF).
There IS no such drop because prior to that change the "No Longer LOOKING" folks were NO COUNTED AT ALL.
SOME difference - not a huge change, but some difference to be sure - with Gallup showing a lower number. I would tend to believe the BLS number over Gallup though, since the BLS uses a larger sample.
SOME difference - not a huge change, but some difference to be sure - with Gallup showing a lower number. I would tend to believe the BLS number over Gallup though, since the BLS uses a larger sample.
Ken
BLS includes 16 and older.
Gallup is 18 and older.
Nobody on Wall Street gives a damn about the Gallup poll.
EVERYBODY ON WALL STREET waits for the Department of Labor's non-farm payroll monthy report. It's one of the most anticipated pieces of news in the financial services industry.
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