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The economy and the stock market will do JUST FINE after QE ends.
I love how we can always count on you to try and predict the future. You could revolutionize the investment world with "Lord Balfour's Palm Reading and Personal Wealth Management*."
I love how we can always count on you to try and predict the future.
And yet I've got a pretty good track record.
What's YOUR track record?
Did you call the end of the recession and the bottom of the stock market back in 2009?
How about the election? Did you pick Obama to win?
How about the gold collapse - how'd you do on that?
Hmmmmmm
You can lead a wingnut to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
Ken
PS - And, ah - you might work on your spelling. "It's "balfor" not "balfour" (that's someone else).
Just mentioning that he might stop this charade, and the market stumbles. But hey, the stock market is the one place the Obot supporters point to as proof of Obama's awesome economic policies.
What's YOUR track record?
Did you call the end of the recession and the bottom of the stock market back in 2009?
How about the election? Did you pick Obama to win?
How about the gold collapse - how'd you do on that?
Hmmmmmm
You can lead a wingnut to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
Ken
Stop, just stop, you're just embarrassing yourself.
How would we know? You've only been here since 2011.
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What's YOUR track record?
Pretty damned good if I say so myself. Kept my powder dry in the housing market, was invested in bonds during the credit crisis, and went heavily into equities shortly after the March '09 rally began.
Here's the only prediction I can recall making, and you judge for yourself how it turned out:
Did you call the end of the recession and the bottom of the stock market back in 2009?
I reject the consensus definition of 'recession', or rather, I find its application to be meaningless and heavily predicated upon nominal growth in the monetary supply. I think it is kind of stupid to assign a single metric to determine whether the economy is growing.
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How about the election? Did you pick Obama to win?
Yes, that one was fairly obvious.
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How about the gold collapse - how'd you do on that?
Gold is a fringe market as far as I'm concerned. I don't pay attention to it.
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You can lead a wingnut to knowledge, but you can't make him think.
So anyone who makes fun of you for thinking you can see the future is considered a "wingnut" ?
Honestly I neither know about your predictions, nor do I care if they are correct. I just think people who make these sorts of predictions are full of themselves. The best we can do is to analyze market conditions as they currently are, and you don't seem too interested in that.
Just mentioning that he might stop this charade, and the market stumbles. But hey, the stock market is the one place the Obot supporters point to as proof of Obama's awesome economic policies.
The "stumble" IS the reaction to the end QE. The market is a forward-looking indicator and by the time QE actually happens, it's impact to the market will be in the rear-view mirror.
As the saying goes "buy on the rumor, sell on the news" (or - as I said - in this case "sell on the rumor, buy on the news"). I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for a big impact on the market when QE actually ends - that impact will be far behind you (in fact, you've likely ALREADY seen it).
So the only reason gold didn't crash earlier is because the Indians were artificially propping up the market with large purchases but the Fed artificially pumping $80 billion a month into equities doesn't mean a thing...
How would we know? You've only been here since 2011.
Honestly I neither know about your predictions, nor do I care if they are correct. I just think people who make these sorts of predictions are full of themselves. The best we can do is to analyze market conditions as they currently are, and you don't seem too interested in that.
No, I've been here longgggg before 2011 (I have no idea where you get THAT date).
Here's a post of mine from Oct 2009, where I reference the LEI as THE indicator to determine the direction of the economy:
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Originally Posted by LordBalfor
The Conference Boards' LEI - widely considered to be the best indicator of future economic direction - was up again (for the 6th straight month). This is the fastest 6th month growth rate since 1983 (as the economy started coming out of the "Reagan Recession" of the early 1980's).
"The LEI has risen for six consecutive months and the coincident economic index has increased in two of the last three months. These numbers strongly suggest that a recovery is developing. However, the intensity of that recovery will depend on how much, and how soon, demand picks up."
Just what I've been saying for months now - Recovery is coming (the early stages are already HERE) - the only real questions are "How fast" and "How strong".
Here's back in March of 2009, when I first noted that it looked like the stock market had turned around. Many wingnuts on this board belittled the idea, but here we are 4 years later and sure enough the stock market has been a ROCKET for the last 4 years:
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Originally Posted by LordBalfor
Still very early in the day to be sure, but SO FAR it's looking like it's going to be yet another HUGE upward day - with the DOW up over 150 points as of a little after 7 am PDT.
"The Census Bureau reported that durable goods orders - an important gauge in measuring manufacturing - rose 3.4% in February, trouncing expectations. Orders were expected to decline 2.5% in February, according to a consensus of estimates from Briefing.com.
The Bureau also revised its figure for January to a decline of 7.3%, from the previously reported decline of 4.5%.
The uptick in durable goods orders comes after a record 6 straight declines.
Also, housing sales - which analysts had expected to be down, were UP and economists are now looking for a turnaround in the general perhaps later this year rather than next year.
Still ugly out there, but more and more it seems that we MAY have reached the bottom and are on the verge of turning back up.
I bet LordBalfour predicted the 2008 crisis, considering that my 12 year old nephew was able to predict it.
Better yet - I predicted the 2009 TURNAROUND.
Shall we look up YOUR early posts? - or even later ones (where you STILL deny the turnaround).
Ken
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