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The question is that when labor saving machines and computers begin to take those manufacturing and some of those service jobs where will the under utilized labor go?
As long as those still working are willing to pay for them to sit home without a job, then that's what they'll do.
This is not a revolutionary idea; it has been going on for decades. This is typical of Bill Gates, coming to the party late, lol. What most people don't take into account in their "mental models" are what effects the advent of advanced AIs will have on the world in 30-40 years. The changes that will be brought about in finance, production, problem-solving, innovation, equality/inequality, and resource allocation is going to drastically change how the world fundamentally works.
People were predicting this way before Bill Gates did...
When we went from 80% farm employment to 2% if freed up labor to move to the manufacturing and service sector, which is why we have so much more stuff then in the 1870s. The question is that when labor saving machines and computers begin to take those manufacturing and some of those service jobs where will the under utilized labor go?
That, Egbert, is the question of the hour. And I have the answer.
All that underutilized labor is going to go to the same place that elevator operators, telephone operators, telegraph agents, men with shovels displaced by earthmovers, file clerks displaced by digital records, TV repairmen, slide rule mathematicians, ditch diggers, pole climbers, etc. etc. went: to new and undreamed of pursuits.
In 1900 when over 90% of farm labor was about to become surplus, did ANYONE imagine the jobs that would be available in the 1920's and the 40's and the 60's? Why then do we need to be able to picture the jobs of 2020 and 2040 in order to believe in a better future?
The only way a new age of innovation and dynamic change could be thwarted is through some social engineering scheme that loses faith in human ingenuity and starts paying people just for breathing and breeding. This is a real threat: some of these types are already here, posting on C-D.
I like the automation myself.
Self checkouts are now even going beyond the 10-15 item limit.
And the fresh fruit/vegetable section lets you print out the total sticker at the scale in my supermarket.
I'd rather checkout myself and pack myself because it's quite convenient.
That, Egbert, is the question of the hour. And I have the answer.
All that underutilized labor is going to go to the same place that elevator operators, telephone operators, telegraph agents, men with shovels displaced by earthmovers, file clerks displaced by digital records, TV repairmen, slide rule mathematicians, ditch diggers, pole climbers, etc. etc. went: to new and undreamed of pursuits.
In 1900 when over 90% of farm labor was about to become surplus, did ANYONE imagine the jobs that would be available in the 1920's and the 40's and the 60's? Why then do we need to be able to picture the jobs of 2020 and 2040 in order to believe in a better future?
The only way a new age of innovation and dynamic change could be thwarted is through some social engineering scheme that loses faith in human ingenuity and starts paying people just for breathing and breeding. This is a real threat: some of these types are already here, posting on C-D.
Maybe, maybe not. Its possible that goods we now consider luxuries will become more common place, but the thing is we have a lot of goods as it is. You might disagree, but I would see the ideal of new innovation as resulting in a society that focuses more on promoting work life balance and quality of life over productivity, but that would seem to be directly at odds with capitalism which rewards productivity in businesses above all.
Maybe, maybe not. Its possible that goods we now consider luxuries will become more common place, but the thing is we have a lot of goods as it is. You might disagree, but I would see the ideal of new innovation as resulting in a society that focuses more on promoting work life balance and quality of life over productivity, but that would seem to be directly at odds with capitalism which rewards productivity in businesses above all.
Oh, Egbert, I hope we can be that wise!
I do believe that work/life balance is a battle fought on the individual level, not the societal level--like the battles against alcohol abuse or drug abuse. The same technology that I use to create an integrated life of balance is used by others to create an "always-on" 24/7 existence. Ubiquitous computers and communications enable work-from-home and work-from-paradise for me, allowing for the capture and personal use of commuting time and the sense of being on vacation after 5 PM and on weekends. Meanwhile I have peers that NEVER disconnect. Individual battles, not societal.
But consider that many of us have shirt-pocket devices that connect us to virtually all of the wisdom and knowledge of the world, and yet the main actual use of these devices is to watch cat videos and argue with strangers!
That, Egbert, is the question of the hour. And I have the answer.
All that underutilized labor is going to go to the same place that elevator operators, telephone operators, telegraph agents, men with shovels displaced by earthmovers, file clerks displaced by digital records, TV repairmen, slide rule mathematicians, ditch diggers, pole climbers, etc. etc. went: to new and undreamed of pursuits.
In 1900 when over 90% of farm labor was about to become surplus, did ANYONE imagine the jobs that would be available in the 1920's and the 40's and the 60's? Why then do we need to be able to picture the jobs of 2020 and 2040 in order to believe in a better future?
The only way a new age of innovation and dynamic change could be thwarted is through some social engineering scheme that loses faith in human ingenuity and starts paying people just for breathing and breeding. This is a real threat: some of these types are already here, posting on C-D.
Of course a higher federally mandated minimum wage is a good idea. Firing half the workers and replacing them with robotics will make life a lot less stressful.
Maybe people will finally realize that technology advancements were never for people to become rich. It was to improve the life on longevity of the human race.
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