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This is completely different situation because these robots can or will replace every conceivable job. Tech jobs will increase, maintenance and building of robots for example. What happens when the robots take those jobs?
The inevitability is that the human mechanic will get replaced by the computerized mechanic. That would mean that the human mechanic would have to find a new skill set, but he could learn to operate the more advanced equipment, if he has the money to retool. That's what I think will be the more likely challenge ahead: I think that people will still, theoretically, have the opportunities to move with the technology curve. The problem is that as their current labor skills become less valued and have less disposable income to show for it, they might recognize the need to retool but might feel like the upfront costs are too expense. If we could adjust the welfare state so that it could pick up the tab for someone who can complete training and then get a job within a year of graduation, that might be an idea. Maybe the tax code could help there.
Economic gibberish. If labor saving devices resulted in higher standards of living during the 20th/early 21st century, why couldn't it be expected to continue through the remainder of the 21st century? Or put conversely, if labor saving devices will cause unemployment in the 21st century, why didn't they do so in the 20th century?
Not if you think about it. At the dawn of the the 20th century normal people often lived like they had for centuries which is to say with not a lot of stuff, often normal people had very little clothing which was often handmade and passed down through generations, furniture, decorations, things like dishes and books were often prized possessions especially in more rural areas. Mechanization in the 20th century was a means to get everyone a lot of stuff, a lot more goods then they could have had prior to the advent of labor saving devices, however there is going to be a point of diminishing returns and we are seeing it as money goes from the real economy to the financial economy in ever increasing amounts.
The really revolutionary thinking will be centered on what to do with hundreds of millions of redundant human workers.
The majority of U.S. workers have always been low skilled. They farmed. They worked in factories and manufactured stuff. They typed, filed, copied and answered the phone. They processed corporate payrolls and balanced the books. They cashed/ cleared our checks, gave us phone numbers, installed our landlines and phones. They defended and offend the nation, depending on one's politics.
Productivity used to track employment and vice-versa. Steadily rising productivity raised all boats for much of the last century. Things began to change very slowly in the 70's and has been gaining speed, ever since. The real hit happened in 2000 where it became obvious that productivity was increasing while employment was declining. The housing bubble economy provided a short-lived cover. 15% off all manufacturing jobs were permanently eliminated between 2000-2010 due to technology.
By 2011, a significant gap appears between economic growth with no parallel increase in job creation. it more so than anything else has polarized the workforce and hollowed out the middle-class. But heck, who ever won an election by not taking every opportunity to blame the other party or incumbent?
We have entered a new paradigm where job destruction and job creation will not play out as they did in the past.
I am hard-pressed to imagine a profession/sector that has not or will not be impacted. Basic legal skills, accounting, auditing, teaching, trades people, drivers, security, service jobs and even MDs are all evolving.
... if labor saving devices will cause unemployment in the 21st century, why didn't they do so in the 20th century?
Again this is a completely different scenario because a robot will be able to do every conceivable job a human can. That will break a capitalistic system.
Take the 3D printers for example, if you can just print any product you want that eliminates all the jobs in the factory. It eliminates many of the jobs for shipping and all of the jobs for handling. It's a giant list... the jobs that are left can be taken by robots.
Again this is a completely different scenario because a robot will be able to do every conceivable job a human can. That will break a capitalistic system.
Take the 3D printers for example, if you can just print any product you want that eliminates all the jobs in the factory. It eliminates many of the jobs for shipping and all of the jobs for handling. It's a giant list... the jobs that are left can be taken by robots.
I agree. I'd say that even the tech/engineering type jobs themselves are at risk. Once adaptive AI really takes off, the automation will start designing other automation, and the maintenance for automation will be performed by automation, etc. I really think this will impact nearly every conceivable occupation. There will be some that are safe, perhaps politicians (of course), they'll probably legislate protection for themselves. But even if new jobs do come about as a result of new tech, the new tech will start wiping out occupations faster than it replaces, and coupled with exploding populations wishing to enter the work force...There's going to be a tremendous shift in the economic systems we've all grown accustomed to. In a post-labor world, capitalism won't work.
Again this is a completely different scenario because a robot will be able to do every conceivable job a human can. That will break a capitalistic system.
Take the 3D printers for example, if you can just print any product you want that eliminates all the jobs in the factory. It eliminates many of the jobs for shipping and all of the jobs for handling. It's a giant list... the jobs that are left can be taken by robots.
And dont look at the primitive 3D printers of today. think more like the ones we can see coming. Dozens of materials, some conductive, some not, with large print areas.
Printing a car will eventually occur.
And think of it as an idea where recycling what you print is feasible as well.
Again this is a completely different scenario because a robot will be able to do every conceivable job a human can. That will break a capitalistic system.
Take the 3D printers for example, if you can just print any product you want that eliminates all the jobs in the factory. It eliminates many of the jobs for shipping and all of the jobs for handling. It's a giant list... the jobs that are left can be taken by robots.
What you are correctly on to imho, is essentially the end of demand, which is to say historically throughout the 19th and 20th centuries labor saving devices were always met with an increase in demand for goods, with stuff like 3D printing, aside from commodities where will the expanding demand come from if folks can just print much of what they would like?
I agree it could break capitalism, which may or may not be a bad thing in hind sight.
Again this is a completely different scenario because a robot will be able to do every conceivable job a human can. That will break a capitalistic system.
Take the 3D printers for example, if you can just print any product you want that eliminates all the jobs in the factory. It eliminates many of the jobs for shipping and all of the jobs for handling. It's a giant list... the jobs that are left can be taken by robots.
Robots will not be able to "do every conceivable job a human can." Will robots be able to preach a sermon? Will robots be able to draw a cartoon? Will robots be able to close a sale? Will robots run for political office?
It is not a completely different scenario. It's the same scenario of the last couple centuries, where technology leverages human endeavor.
Robots will not be able to "do every conceivable job a human can." Will robots be able to preach a sermon? Will robots be able to draw a cartoon? Will robots be able to close a sale? Will robots run for political office?
It is not a completely different scenario. It's the same scenario of the last couple centuries, where technology leverages human endeavor.
I don't think robots will be able to do every job, the issue is more will they be able to do enough jobs to make capitalism start to become inefficient. Imho capitalism and communism were developed for a manufacturing economy, just like feudalism and slave based economies were developed for an agrarian economy. Will capitalism be able to survive in a service based economy where even some services are performed by machines probably not as well as it did in the past.
Last edited by Egbert; 03-18-2014 at 06:53 PM..
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