Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
When speaking of aerosols, and droplets, size matters.
Not!
"The equation for the standard lognormal distribution is:
Regardless of what drop size distribution function is used, they all
essentially perform the same task. The result is a mathematical drop
size distribution from which a collection of characteristic or mean
diameters can be extracted. These diameters are single values that
express the various mean sizes in the spray. Drop diameters are usually
expressed in micrometers (microns or μm). One micrometer equals
1/25,400 inch (0.001 mm)."
We will never be able to get a scientist to speak in terms of certainty, especially a research scientist. "We don't know" would not be a valid answer to a request for an estimate of the probability of catching Ebola from an asymptomatic person on a bus.
That's true because they wouldn't have a job if they were honest and said "this is part art and science, and here's an educated guess but nothing is 100%". And again, they are always predicting on past experience/in the rear view mirror, not the future where a virus can morph/shift rapidly into something else all together. And the future is what we can't know.
A refresher on the 1918 flu virus and how it morphed quickly into so many different variations is an interesting possibility of what a virus can do in short order.
And the ugly "U" curve shows how these viruses can get nasty very quickly.
And, right from the CDC:
"Until we can ascertain which of these factors gave rise to the mortality patterns observed and learn more about the formation of the pandemic, predictions are only educated guesses. We can only conclude that since it happened once, analogous conditions could lead to an equally devastating pandemic. "
"Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pandemic virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths."
But of course not this time, you know, the experts and all, probabilities, etc....... And they might be right. Or wrong. We shall see.
That's true because they wouldn't have a job if they were honest and said "here's an educated guess but nothing is 100%". And again, they are always predicting on past experience/in the rear view mirror, not the future where a virus can morph/shift rapidly into something else all together. And the future is what we can't know.
A refresher on the 1918 flu virus and how it morphed quickly into so many different variations is an interesting possibility of what a virus can do in short order.
And the ugly "U" curve shows how these viruses can get nasty very quickly.
And, right from the CDC:
"Until we can ascertain which of these factors gave rise to the mortality patterns observed and learn more about the formation of the pandemic, predictions are only educated guesses. We can only conclude that since it happened once, analogous conditions could lead to an equally devastating pandemic. "
"Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pandemic virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths."
But of course not this time, you know, the experts and all, probabilities, etc....... And they might be right. Or wrong. We shall see.
It is not really known if the three waves of the 1918-19 pandemic were caused by different viral strains or not.
The 2009 H1N1 is a bit similar in that it hit young people harder than usual. There were even deaths that happened rapidly, like in 1918. The U curve was inverted, with most deaths in the 18 to 65 year age group.
The 1918 pandemic seems to have been a perfect storm: a new strain of virus to which few people had even partial immunity due to previous infection with a similar strain. Such partial immunity may have protected some older folks (over 35 years old). WWI troop movements didn't help the flu situation any, either.
The traditional U curve therefore turned into a W in 1918, with a peak in deaths in young adults as well as the very young and very old.
Could we see an Ebola strain do what the 1918 flu did? It's possible. Is it likely to spread world-wide like flu does? No. because it does not spread as easily as flu does.
With either flu or Ebola, getting an effective vaccine for a specific strain will be the key to stopping a pandemic. Antiviral drugs could help, too. The 1918 flu strain would have been sensitive to some drugs we have today, based on its genetics. Also, it's hard to now how many 1918 deaths could have been prevented with antibiotic treatment of secondary bacterial pneumonias.
This woman is a more pompous individual than I'd thought. What if all returning doctors from WAfrica held to her selfish stance. She must have some bucks to retain a lawyer. I wonder if the state of Maine, with R-Gov LePage, will impose some sort of martial law. [bold mine]
CBS News this morning: ....[Kaci Hickox's] attorney Steven Hyman told the Bangor Daily News that she agreed to stay in isolation from the public for two days, despite Maine officials expectations that she remain for the required 21-days imposed on those who have been exposed to the virus.
"She doesn't want to agree to continue to be confined to a residence beyond the two days," Hyman said.
"Health officials in Maine said Tuesday they're prepared to legally enforce the state's "voluntary" quarantine on health care workers who've treated Ebola patients.
"But civil rights lawyer Norman Siegel, who is also representing Hickox said she would contest any potential court order requiring her to quarantine at home.
"The conditions that the state of Maine is now requiring Kaci to comply with are unconstitutional and illegal and there is no justification for the state of Maine to infringe on her liberty," he told the Bangor Daily News.
The people who have the most to fear from Ebola are those who work in hospitals. These are people who will be put in direct contact with an ebola patient at the height of infection, contact that will include bodily fluids. My hospital just went through training for dealing with ebola. We'll have special team members whose job it is to help staff into and out of the protective suits as well as a full inspection of the suit once it's been put on. Including the ER, our hospital has nearly 25 total isolation rooms. We're getting one of the isolation rooms prepped with an attached clean room for putting on protective suits and for disinfection of the suits prior to suits removal before stepping out into the hallway. Another danger is housekeeping. Housekeeping is the department that handles the medical waste. I don't work in housekeeping so I don't know if they're receiving special training and if they are, what are they being trained to do in this situation. The other thing that worries me for housekeeping is the recent study that shows that in low temperature and moist surfaces, the ebola virus can survive for up to 50 days. Housekeeping do have cleaners that can kill the ebola virus, but there are so many surfaces to clean, there's no way for them to get every surface 100% disinfected daily. The standard hospital bed would have to be disassembled to get to all the surfaces where bodily fluids can get into before it would be safe to use for another patient without risk of passing on the ebola virus.
So, the brainiacs in the State Department think it's a good idea to import non-citizen Ebola patients from Africa? And everyone said it was a rumor and now there is an actual memo.
In my opinion, Obama usually uses Biden to test the waters for his ideas that the public might not like. Biden blurts out something. The White House sits back and waits for public and media reaction. If he gets a positive reaction, they say Biden just jumped the gun and they were planning to announce it themselves and if they get a bad reaction, well, then it was just Crazy Joe (insert White House yucks here) popping off and they have no plans for whatever they were really thinking of doing. All I can guess, is that Biden (if he really plans to run for President) balked on Ebola so they let the State Department float the idea.
That's true because they wouldn't have a job if they were honest and said "this is part art and science, and here's an educated guess but nothing is 100%". And again, they are always predicting on past experience/in the rear view mirror, not the future where a virus can morph/shift rapidly into something else all together. And the future is what we can't know.
A refresher on the 1918 flu virus and how it morphed quickly into so many different variations is an interesting possibility of what a virus can do in short order.
And the ugly "U" curve shows how these viruses can get nasty very quickly.
And, right from the CDC:
"Until we can ascertain which of these factors gave rise to the mortality patterns observed and learn more about the formation of the pandemic, predictions are only educated guesses. We can only conclude that since it happened once, analogous conditions could lead to an equally devastating pandemic. "
"Even with modern antiviral and antibacterial drugs, vaccines, and prevention knowledge, the return of a pandemic virus equivalent in pathogenicity to the virus of 1918 would likely kill >100 million people worldwide. A pandemic virus with the (alleged) pathogenic potential of some recent H5N1 outbreaks could cause substantially more deaths."
But of course not this time, you know, the experts and all, probabilities, etc....... And they might be right. Or wrong. We shall see.
The 1918 flu pandemic was likely more of a combination of young people being ravished by war and the introduction of an unfamiliar stain from china. If you look at the areas hit hardest it was the us and Europe even though the strain started in china. All those young people had been fighting in the worst conditions imaginable. Then Canada shipped 90,000 sickly Chinese laborers in and started the pandemic. The strain was new to people in the us and Europe but not china (kinda like what Obama did with the illegals and enterovirus). So it's not like the 1918 strain was some kind of superbug, it was just a combination of bad circumstances.
"TRENTON — After days of blistering criticism from the ACLU, the CDC and even the United Nations secretary general over Gov. Chris Christie’s new, 21-day mandatory quarantine policy for all healthcare workers exposed to Ebola, the New Jersey governor has gotten a much-needed vote of support from a heavyweight name in the medical community: Nobel Prize-winning doctor and medical researcher, Dr. Bruce Beutler.
Dr. Beutler, an American medical doctor and researcher, won the Nobel Prize for Medicine and Physiology in 2011 for his work researching the cellular subsystem of the body’s overall immune system — the part of it that defends the body from infection by other organisms, like Ebola.
He is currently the Director of the Center for the Genetics of Host Defense at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas — the first U.S. city to treat an Ebola patient and also the first to watch one die from the virus. In an exclusive interview with NJ Advance Media, Beutler reviewed Christie’s new policy of mandatory quarantine for all health care workers exposed to Ebola, and declared: “I favor it.”
Unfortunately, while the doctor’s support might provide much-needed credibility for Christie as he threatens to quarantine ever more healthcare workers returning from the Ebola fight in West Africa, it also comes with some chilling words.
“I favor it, because it’s not entirely clear that they can’t transmit the disease,” Beutler said, referring to asymptomatic healthcare workers like Kaci Hickox, a Doctors Without Borders nurse returning from treating Ebola patients in Sierra Leone who was quarantined in New Jersey for 65 hours before being transported to her home state of Maine on Monday afternoon.
“It may not be absolutely true that those without symptoms can’t transmit the disease, because we don’t have the numbers to back that up,” said Beutler, “It could be people develop significant viremia [where viruses enter the bloodstream and gain access to the rest of the body], and become able to transmit the disease before they have a fever, even. People may have said that without symptoms you can’t transmit Ebola. I’m not sure about that being 100 percent true. There’s a lot of variation with viruses.”
In fact, in a study published online in late September by the New England Journal of Medicine and backed by the World Health Organization, 3,343 confirmed and 667 probable cases of Ebola were analyzed, and nearly 13 percent of the time, those infected with Ebola exhibited no fever at all.
Why, then, does he think the CDC would so emphasize Ebola is not communicable in patients without symptoms?
“There’s some imperative to prevent panic among the public,” says Dr. Beutler, “But to be honest, people have not examined that with transmissibility in mind. I don’t completely trust people who’d say that as dogma.
want to bet this turns out to be political???
she is a self absorbed twit
hope this bites her right on her self centered ass!!!!
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
And again, they are always predicting on past experience/in the rear view mirror, not the future where a virus can morph/shift rapidly into something else all together. And the future is what we can't know.
Nurse now taking Maine to court, for quarantine
