Quote:
Originally Posted by jdm2008
This is one of the most absurd posts I've read in a while. You really are doing some mental gymnastics because the results of this law do not line up with your pre-conceived notions of what should happen.
Seattle's unemployment rate has fallen steadily since this law was implemented, sorry you just need to admit you are wrong!
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Where are you getting the stats on
Seattle's unemployment rate for
low skill workers?
(Or better yet, population stats for low skill workers, to show they are not leaving Seattle instead of higher skill workers coming in.)
Also, it is not my mental gymnastics. That's directly from
the UW study I linked to earlier.
Quoting from page 31 of that study:
"This increase in both business closures and business openings perhaps should not come as a
surprise. A higher minimum wage changes the type of business that can succeed profitably in
Seattle, and we should thus expect some extra churning. Our results are consistent with those of
Aaronson, French, and Sorkin (2016), who conclude that minimum wage laws prompt increases in
both entries and exits (particularly in chains), with
closures coming from more labor intensive
industries and establishments, and more openings occurring in more capital intensive industries."
and on page 33:
"Further, while
these low-wage workers increased their likelihood of being employed relative to prior years, this
increase was less than in comparison regions. We estimate that the impact of the Ordinance was
a 1.1 percentage point decrease in likelihood of low-wage Seattle workers remaining employed.
While these low-wage workers increased their quarterly earnings relative to prior years, the
estimated impact of the Ordinance on earnings is small and sensitive to the choice of comparison
region. Finally, for those who kept their job, the Ordinance appears to have improved wages
and earnings, but decreased their likelihood of being employed in Seattle relative other parts of
the state of Washington."