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When I posted about this in the past several years, the answer I got was "the president has nothing to do with the stock market."
Obama - January 20, 2009 - Dow 7,949
January 19, 2017 - Dow 19,804 - gain in 8 years = 150%
Trump - January 20, 2017 - Dow 19,827
February 15, 2017 - Dow 20,603 (as of 2 pm)
So let me get this straight. When the Dow tripled under Obama, he had absolutely nothing to do with the increase, but since the stock market has increased less than 5% since Trump's inauguration, we should all give the credit to him?
Please explain this to me.
No, the stock market did very well for most of Obama's Presidency.
But we kept hearing from the left that it would crash if Trump got elected. Instead, all you hear is crickets about it from the left ever since.
It's a little early yet. We don't have the full Trump effect in place.
We still have businesses opening up stores/manufacturing facilities, etc. and expansions that they planned two three four years ago.
Let's see where we are in four months, six months.
I hope the gains we made in the last 8 years will sustain and we don't get burned.....but it is shaky. Natural cyclical stuff combined with no policy or too much policy could hurt...but we won't know for sure for months down the road.
It all looks good now and Trump beats his chest saying see what I have done...WHAT? What has he done?
A stock market correction is an 8-12% decline in the stock market. It is very normal.
We had 2 of those in the last 2 years of Obama's Presidency.
Your version of the story works better.
The post I replied to seemed to claim that a nearly flat market over two years was a essentially a correction, which would not be a true story.
Anyway, you can either give kudos to Obama for a great market run and hope Trump does the same, or admit that a POTUS really doesn't control the DOW regardless of the letter after his name.
No, the stock market did very well for most of Obama's Presidency.
But we kept hearing from the left that it would crash if Trump got elected. Instead, all you hear is crickets about it from the left ever since.
I honestly never heard that it would crash under Trump, but all I can say is "wait & see." Trump has been talking about massive tax cuts and getting rid of regulations, which is causing many investors to feel optimistic. You can't judge overall gains or losses (unless you are a day trader) by a month or even a year. Stocks began falling in late 2000 to 2002 and then surged for a few years and then fell dramatically. Then the Dow began to rise steadily after 2009. The stock market is volatile and isn't always predictable.
Anyway, most Americans I know are more concerned about a paycheck, not a dividend.
Clearly the market it betting on a rosy future. For the last couple of years I wasn't concerned about a major correction, however I also didn't think it was likely that market could make a significant move upwards as it was fully priced.
Based on my personal circumstances I've been moving money out of the market in 2017. This is something I would have been doing in 2017 regardless of the market conditions. However, I did speed up the process based on the market move since Nov and the threats of a trade war.
Unless there are significant upside earning surprises I don't see how the market continues to move upwards. Eventually the market will expect results and all the talk of the released animal spirits will subside.
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 29.03 +0.06 (0.20%) 12:34 pm EST, Wed Feb 15
And the same was said when the Dow hit 15,000 and then 16,000 and then 17,000 etc.
My point is what is most important is "time in the market" rather than trying to "time the market."
Will the DOW continue to rise or will the market crash? Who knows? And more importantly....WHO CARES!
JAck Bogle once said " The stock market is a big distraction to American Business." Smart man. The stock market will go thru cycles. Up and down. If you are in it for the long term ( translated "a lifetime"); you WILL make money! The market thru 401 k plans, IRA's is one of the few ways for middle class America to share in the wealth of our country. But you have to start investing at a young age AND on a consistent basis.
Let me clarify, I'm not talking about your particular situation. You seemed pretty financially savvy and I am sure may be selling to rebalance your portfolio or some other sound reason , but
as far as selling cuz one feels that the market is at all time highs? Only to rebalance. With a proper asset allocation ( equities / fixed income) according to one's age and risk tolerance, gyrations in the market will not and should not affect long term financial planning.
The worst thing one can do ( and many did at the end of 2008) is to sell at the lows of the market and go to and remain in cash . Not too bright. Not only would those folks have made back all their losses.....today they would have some very attractive long term capital gains.
Anyway, if I was a young person today ( in my 20's) I would be dumping every available dollar I had into the US stock market. When I started working 35 years years ago, the DOW was at 980. Today a 20 fold increase.
No, the stock market did very well for most of Obama's Presidency.
But we kept hearing from the left that it would crash if Trump got elected. Instead, all you hear is crickets about it from the left ever since.
The more I read comments like this one the more I think Trump supporters must hear only crickets when something is explained to them that they don't like or don't understand...
When I posted about this in the past several years, the answer I got was "the president has nothing to do with the stock market."
Obama - January 20, 2009 - Dow 7,949
January 19, 2017 - Dow 19,804- gain in 8 years = about 145%
Trump - January 20, 2017 - Dow 19,827
February 15, 2017 - Dow 20,603 (as of 2 pm)
So let me get this straight. When the Dow nearly tripled under Obama, he had absolutely nothing to do with the increase, but since the stock market has increased less than 5% since Trump's inauguration, we should all give the credit to him?
Please explain this to me. BTW I would agree that most of the time the market has little to do with who is in the White House, but you cannot have it both ways.
Okay...
Myths abound, but when it comes to your portfolio, it doesn’t matter much which party wins the White House.
The presidential cycle. The stock market has, for the most part, ebbed and flowed with the four-year election cycle for the past 182 years. Wars, bear markets and recessions tend to start in the first two years of a president’s term, says The Stock Trader’s Almanac; bull markets and prosperous times mark the latter half. Since 1833, the Dow Jones industrial average has gained an average of 10.4% in the year before a presidential election, and nearly 6%, on average, in the election year. By contrast, the first and second years of a president’s term see average gains of 2.5% and 4.2%, respectively. A notable recent exception to decent election-year returns: 2008, when the Dow sank nearly 34%. (Returns are based on price only and exclude dividends.)
And the same was said when the Dow hit 15,000 and then 16,000 and then 17,000 etc.
My point is what is most important is "time in the market" rather than trying to "time the market."
Will the DOW continue to rise or will the market crash? Who knows? And more importantly....WHO CARES!
JAck Bogle once said " The stock market is a big distraction to American Business." Smart man. The stock market will go thru cycles. Up and down. If you are in it for the long term ( translated "a lifetime"); you WILL make money! The market thru 401 k plans, IRA's is one of the few ways for middle class America to share in the wealth of our country. But you have to start investing at a young age AND on a consistent basis.
Let me clarify, I'm not talking about your particular situation. You seemed pretty financially savvy and I am sure may be selling to rebalance your portfolio or some other sound reason , but
as far as selling cuz one feels that the market is at all time highs? Only to rebalance. With a proper asset allocation ( equities / fixed income) according to one's age and risk tolerance, gyrations in the market will not and should not affect long term financial planning.
The worst thing one can do ( and many did at the end of 2008) is to sell at the lows of the market and go to and remain in cash . Not too bright. Not only would those folks have made back all their losses.....today they would have some very attractive long term capital gains.
Anyway, if I was a young person today ( in my 20's) I would be dumping every available dollar I had into the US stock market. When I started working 35 years years ago, the DOW was at 980. Today a 20 fold increase.
As for your general point, I have never attempted to time the market. I did seriously consider selling early in 2008 because it did appear that what was occurring was extremely abnormal. I didn't sell because I knew I would then have to decide when to buy back in; in hindsight if I had sold its hard for me to believe I would have bought back in at the lows in 2009.
However, that doesn't alter the fact the market seems way ahead of itself at this point. The following are Shiller PE values for the other levels you mentioned.
The Shiller PE is now about 29. Clearly the market is betting that earnings will increase significantly in the near future. I am hearing more concern in business reports about whether or not the earnings increases will actually occur.
As for my personal situation, now that I'm over 60, I decided it was time to change the balance which had been 80% stock (which worked out quite well over the last 8 years). I'm not predicting a big decline (and I'm not selling everything), but I think the odds are greater that there will be a significant decline from this point then continued market advances. What will be the trigger and when it will occur; I don't know. But I have now lived through multiple huge declines.
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. Not too bright. Not only would those folks have made back all their losses.....today they would have some very attractive long term capital gains. 
